BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe

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The scenarios in direct comparison Tables 3C6 and 3C7 present the full set of results of the five scenarios, to 2020 and 2050 respectively. This overview provides an opportunity to compare the relevant indicators which should inform decision making. Table 3C6 – Overall results to 2020 Source: BPIE model Scenario 0 1A 1B 2 3 4 Description Baseline Slow & Shallow Annual energy saving in 2020 2020 saving as % of today Investment costs (present value) Savings (present value) Net saving (cost) to consumers Net saving (cost) to society - without externality Net saving (cost) to society - including externality Internal Rate of Return Fast decarbonisation Fast & Shallow Medium Deep Two- stage TWh/a 94 169 271 283 527 283 % 2% 4% 7% 7% 13% 7% €bn 107 161 255 252 477 252 €bn 94 163 260 265 487 265 €bn -13 2 5 13 10 13 €bn 238 462 742 787 1,441 787 €bn 277 532 853 902 1,656 902 IRR 8% 9% 9% 10% 9% 10% Annual CO 2 saving in MtCO 2 /a 286 300 319 321 367 321 2020 2020 CO 2 saved % 28% 29% 31% 31% 35% 31% (% of 2010) CO 2 abatement cost €/t CO 2 -4 -9 -14 -14 -26 -14 Slow decarbonisation Annual CO 2 saving in MtCO 2 /a 54 73 98 101 161 101 2020 2020 CO 2 saved % 5% 7% 9% 10% 16% 10% (% of 2010) CO 2 abatement cost €/tCO 2 -26 -46 -66 -70 -105 -70 Average annual net jobs generated M 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.6 118 | Europe’s buildings under the microscope
Table 3C7 – Overall results to 2050 Source: BPIE model Scenario 0 1A 1B 2 3 4 Description Baseline Slow & Shallow Annual energy saving in 2050 2050 saving as % of today Investment costs (present value) Savings (present value) Net saving (cost) to consumers Net saving (cost) to society - without externality Net saving (cost) to society - including externality Internal Rate of Return Fast decarbonisation Fast & Shallow Medium Deep Two- stage TWh/a 365 1,373 1,286 1,975 2,795 2,896 % 9% 34% 32% 48% 68% 71% €bn 164 343 451 551 937 584 €bn 187 530 611 851 1,318 1,058 €bn 23 187 160 300 381 474 €bn 1,116 4,512 4,081 6,451 8,939 9,908 €bn 1,226 4,884 4,461 7,015 9,767 10,680 IRR 10.1% 12.4% 11.5% 12.5% 11.8% 13.4% Annual CO 2 saving in MtCO 2 /a 742 821 814 868 932 939 2050 2050 CO 2 saved % 71.7% 79.3% 78.6% 83.8% 89.9% 90.7% (% of 2010) CO 2 abatement cost €/tCO 2 -20 -74 -68 -103 -136 -151 Slow decarbonisation Annual CO 2 saving in MtCO 2 /a 182 410 391 547 732 755 2050 2050 CO 2 saved % 18% 40% 38% 53% 71% 73% (% of 2010) CO 2 abatement cost €/tCO 2 -89 -196 -185 -221 -238 -255 Average annual net jobs generated M 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.8 It is clear that only two of the scenarios achieve the ambitious European CO 2 reduction targets as described by the European Commission in its Roadmap 2050 paper. Scenarios 3 and 4, the deep and the two-stage scenario, achieve a CO 2 reduction of around 90%, but only under the assumption that the power supply sector undergoes a fast decarbonisation as well. Nevertheless, in both scenarios the majority of CO 2 savings are achieved through energy savings measures on the demand side. Europe’s buildings under the microscope | 119
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Europe’s buildings under the micr
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Foreword Buildings are at the pivot
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ContentS FOREWORD Acknowledgements
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ExEcutivE summAry From the emotiona
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Space standards (expressed through
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Buildings vary remarkably in terms
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The absence of previous requirement
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It is, however, not sufficient to o
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In all the scenarios, the estimated
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Introduction A vital picture of the
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The Challenge Many experts agree th
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Europe’s buildings under the micr
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areas. These factors were defined f
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A. building typology From large com
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The floor space breakdown per count
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IE UK GR NO NL MT SI DK IT SK FR FI
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Figure 1A8 - The non-residential se
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While the dataset of residential bu
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Size Information on the size of non
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Ownership and tenure The ownership
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Data availability on the ownership
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C. Energy Performance It is widely
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Mtoe Figure 1C3 - Historical final
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The performance of households depen
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Within the existing European stock,
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In addition to the lack of sufficie
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Specific energy use (kWh/m 2 a) in
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A. Barriers & Challenges Improving
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years, while many businesses will n
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Lack of advice/information Even wit
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Figure 2A2 - Building owner’s dec
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B. Regulatory and legislative frame
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At the moment all countries have im
Page 67 and 68: Although the certification schemes
Page 69 and 70: Number of countries with penalties
Page 71 and 72: IE IT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK
Page 73 and 74: Table 2B4 - Calculated impacts and
Page 75 and 76: LV NL NO PL PT SI SK SE UK The Mini
Page 77 and 78: Table 2B6 - Summary of building ene
Page 79 and 80: egulated energy and total energy re
Page 81 and 82: LT LV MT NL NO PL PT RO SE SI SK Mi
Page 83 and 84: Prescriptive-based requirements for
Page 85 and 86: iii. Other requirements A number of
Page 87 and 88: Building code requirements for exis
Page 89 and 90: Enforcement and Compliance Building
Page 91 and 92: Financial programmes fall into the
Page 93 and 94: Table 2C2 - A summary of selected f
Page 95 and 96: D. Other Programmes The BPIE 2011 s
Page 97 and 98: Europe’s buildings under the micr
Page 99 and 100: The previous chapters so far have g
Page 101 and 102: Even when viewed purely in economic
Page 103 and 104: At the other end of the scale, reno
Page 105 and 106: New Member States from Central and
Page 107 and 108: Determining the practical limit for
Page 109 and 110: Figure 3B1 - Cost reductions for di
Page 111 and 112: projects to assess the viability of
Page 113 and 114: C. Setting the scene This section e
Page 115 and 116: An initially slow growth in the ann
Page 117: Scenario 4 - Two-stage renovation T
Page 121 and 122: Figure 3C3 below compares the prese
Page 123 and 124: Final remarks and policy recommenda
Page 125 and 126: • Finally, the EU should support
Page 127 and 128: • A reliable and continuous data
Page 129 and 130: DEFINITIONS Air-conditioning system
Page 131 and 132: U-Value: is the measure of the rate
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