BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe

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Scenario 3 - Deep The Deep scenario combines the deep renovation path with the medium rate of renovation growth. By virtue of the rapid shift towards deep renovations, and the growing share of nearly Zero Energy Buildings towards the middle of the century, this scenario achieves energy savings as high as 68%, with corresponding CO 2 emissions reductions of 90% (under the fast decarbonisation option) - the target for buildings set out in the EU 2050 Roadmap. While the investment required for the deep scenario is considerably greater than for the earlier scenarios, so are the savings, as demonstrated in the table below. By 2020, societal savings will amount to €1,656 billion including externalities. This figure represents almost a doubling compared to scenario 2. On the other hand, investment costs until 2020 are also highest of all scenarios, amounting to €477 billion which is due to the fact that deep renovation measures are introduced quickly and on a large scale, leading to large energy savings but also requiring larger investments. Compared to all other scenarios, this is equivalent to an almost doubling of the investment costs in the period to 2020, or nearly a five-fold increase compared to the baseline. As a result, the internal rate of return of 9% is slightly lower than in the previous scenario. However, the savings at present value are still higher than the investment costs, delivering a net saving for consumers of €10 billion. Looking ahead to 2050, the internal rate of return increases to 11.8%, however, it is only the fourth highest of all scenarios. This can be explained by the fact that the total amount of initial costs for deep renovation measures are relatively higher due to their fast introduction in the first half of the scenario period. This prevents the learning effects to have a full impact on cost reduction of deep measures. As in the case to 2020, the investment costs of this scenario are the highest also in the years to 2050, amounting to €937 billion. However, savings are also the highest at €1,318 billion, resulting in a net saving for consumers of €381 billion. The impact on employment creation is the highest of all scenarios. Triggered by the relatively fast increase in the renovation rate and by applying deep renovation measures, this scenario leads to the creation of 1.1 million direct jobs per year on average for 40 years. This is more or less equivalent to employing 1.1 million people for their full working life time. Table 3C4 – Key results of scenario 3 Source: BPIE model Scenario Results in year... % energy saved % CO 2 saved Investment (€bn) Energy cost saving (€bn) Net saving to consumers (€bn) Net saving to society (€bn) 3 – Deep 2020 13% 16-35% 477 487 10 1656 3 - Deep 2050 68% 71-90% 937 1,318 381 9,767 To summarize, this scenario delivers high energy and CO 2 savings, while also delivering the highest employment effects. However, it also requires a steep increase in investments in this decade which would represent a step change compared to the current reality of renovation practices in Europe. 116 | Europe’s buildings under the microscope
Scenario 4 – Two-stage renovation The fourth scenario deviates from the assumption in the previous scenarios that buildings will be renovated once between 2010 and 2050. In this scenario, from 2031 onwards the “second stage” renovations commence, occurring in addition to the first time renovations. As a result of the learning curve cost reductions, particularly for the deeper renovations, the cost of achieving a deep or nZEB renovation is now substantially less than if it had been undertaken 20 years earlier. The overall investment is therefore considerably lower than for the Deep scenario. In present value terms, a cost reduction of nearly 40% is achieved, despite achieving slightly higher levels of energy and CO 2 savings in 2050. Correspondingly, the net savings, both to consumers and to society at large, are significantly greater than for the Deep scenario. The achieved energy saving is the highest of all scenarios, leading to a 71% saving in 2050. CO 2 emissions decrease by 73% to 91%, depending on the decarbonisation rate as described earlier. The renovation rate of this scenario follows the same path as the medium scenario until 2030, requiring an intermediate growth rate during the first two decades. However, renovation activities will have to significantly increase after 2030 to deliver on the second stage of renovation which comes on top of the now continuous renovation rate of scenario 2 (c.f. Table 3C5). This requires strategic planning ahead by the supply chain, which in turn needs to be enabled and supported by a reliable and clear policy framework. Table 3C5 – Key results of scenario 4 Source: BPIE model Scenario Results in year... % energy saved % CO 2 saved Investment (€bn) Energy cost saving (€bn) Net saving to consumers (€bn) Net saving to society (€bn) 4 - 2 stage 2020 7% 10-31% 252 265 13 902 4 - 2 stage 2050 71% 73-91% 584 1,058 474 10,680 Europe’s buildings under the microscope | 117
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Europe’s buildings under the micr
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Foreword Buildings are at the pivot
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ContentS FOREWORD Acknowledgements
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ExEcutivE summAry From the emotiona
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Space standards (expressed through
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Buildings vary remarkably in terms
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The absence of previous requirement
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It is, however, not sufficient to o
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In all the scenarios, the estimated
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Introduction A vital picture of the
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The Challenge Many experts agree th
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Europe’s buildings under the micr
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areas. These factors were defined f
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A. building typology From large com
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The floor space breakdown per count
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IE UK GR NO NL MT SI DK IT SK FR FI
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Figure 1A8 - The non-residential se
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While the dataset of residential bu
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Size Information on the size of non
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Ownership and tenure The ownership
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Data availability on the ownership
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C. Energy Performance It is widely
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Mtoe Figure 1C3 - Historical final
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The performance of households depen
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Within the existing European stock,
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In addition to the lack of sufficie
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Specific energy use (kWh/m 2 a) in
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A. Barriers & Challenges Improving
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years, while many businesses will n
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Lack of advice/information Even wit
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Figure 2A2 - Building owner’s dec
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B. Regulatory and legislative frame
Page 65 and 66: At the moment all countries have im
Page 67 and 68: Although the certification schemes
Page 69 and 70: Number of countries with penalties
Page 71 and 72: IE IT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK
Page 73 and 74: Table 2B4 - Calculated impacts and
Page 75 and 76: LV NL NO PL PT SI SK SE UK The Mini
Page 77 and 78: Table 2B6 - Summary of building ene
Page 79 and 80: egulated energy and total energy re
Page 81 and 82: LT LV MT NL NO PL PT RO SE SI SK Mi
Page 83 and 84: Prescriptive-based requirements for
Page 85 and 86: iii. Other requirements A number of
Page 87 and 88: Building code requirements for exis
Page 89 and 90: Enforcement and Compliance Building
Page 91 and 92: Financial programmes fall into the
Page 93 and 94: Table 2C2 - A summary of selected f
Page 95 and 96: D. Other Programmes The BPIE 2011 s
Page 97 and 98: Europe’s buildings under the micr
Page 99 and 100: The previous chapters so far have g
Page 101 and 102: Even when viewed purely in economic
Page 103 and 104: At the other end of the scale, reno
Page 105 and 106: New Member States from Central and
Page 107 and 108: Determining the practical limit for
Page 109 and 110: Figure 3B1 - Cost reductions for di
Page 111 and 112: projects to assess the viability of
Page 113 and 114: C. Setting the scene This section e
Page 115: An initially slow growth in the ann
Page 119 and 120: Table 3C7 - Overall results to 2050
Page 121 and 122: Figure 3C3 below compares the prese
Page 123 and 124: Final remarks and policy recommenda
Page 125 and 126: • Finally, the EU should support
Page 127 and 128: • A reliable and continuous data
Page 129 and 130: DEFINITIONS Air-conditioning system
Page 131 and 132: U-Value: is the measure of the rate
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BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe

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