BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe
BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe
BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe
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Scenario 4 – Two-stage renovation<br />
The fourth scenario deviates from <strong>the</strong> assumption in <strong>the</strong> previous scenarios that <strong>buildings</strong> will be<br />
renovated once between 2010 and 2050. In this scenario, from 2031 onwards <strong>the</strong> “second stage”<br />
renovations commence, occurring in addition to <strong>the</strong> first time renovations.<br />
As a result of <strong>the</strong> learning curve cost reductions, particularly for <strong>the</strong> deeper renovations, <strong>the</strong> cost of<br />
achieving a deep or nZEB renovation is now substantially less than if it had been <strong>under</strong>taken 20 years<br />
earlier. The overall investment is <strong>the</strong>refore considerably lower than for <strong>the</strong> Deep scenario. In present<br />
value terms, a cost reduction of nearly 40% is achieved, despite achieving slightly higher levels of energy<br />
and CO 2<br />
savings in 2050. Correspondingly, <strong>the</strong> net savings, both to consumers and to society at large, are<br />
significantly greater than for <strong>the</strong> Deep scenario.<br />
The achieved energy saving is <strong>the</strong> highest of all scenarios, leading to a 71% saving in 2050. CO 2<br />
emissions<br />
decrease by 73% to 91%, depending on <strong>the</strong> decarbonisation rate as described earlier.<br />
The renovation rate of this scenario follows <strong>the</strong> same path as <strong>the</strong> medium scenario until 2030, requiring<br />
an intermediate growth rate during <strong>the</strong> first two decades. However, renovation activities will have to<br />
significantly increase after 2030 to deliver on <strong>the</strong> second stage of renovation which comes on top of<br />
<strong>the</strong> now continuous renovation rate of scenario 2 (c.f. Table 3C5). This requires strategic planning ahead<br />
by <strong>the</strong> supply chain, which in turn needs to be enabled and supported by a reliable and clear policy<br />
framework.<br />
Table 3C5 – Key results of scenario 4<br />
Source: <strong>BPIE</strong> model<br />
Scenario<br />
Results<br />
in year...<br />
% energy<br />
saved<br />
% CO 2<br />
saved<br />
Investment<br />
(€bn)<br />
Energy<br />
cost<br />
saving<br />
(€bn)<br />
Net<br />
saving to<br />
consumers<br />
(€bn)<br />
Net saving<br />
to society<br />
(€bn)<br />
4 - 2 stage 2020 7% 10-31% 252 265 13 902<br />
4 - 2 stage 2050 71% 73-91% 584 1,058 474 10,680<br />
<strong>Europe</strong>’s <strong>buildings</strong> <strong>under</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>microscope</strong> | 117