BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe
BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe
BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe
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Scenario 3 - Deep<br />
The Deep scenario combines <strong>the</strong> deep renovation path with <strong>the</strong> medium rate of renovation growth.<br />
By virtue of <strong>the</strong> rapid shift towards deep renovations, and <strong>the</strong> growing share of nearly Zero Energy<br />
Buildings towards <strong>the</strong> middle of <strong>the</strong> century, this scenario achieves energy savings as high as 68%, with<br />
corresponding CO 2<br />
emissions reductions of 90% (<strong>under</strong> <strong>the</strong> fast decarbonisation option) - <strong>the</strong> target for<br />
<strong>buildings</strong> set out in <strong>the</strong> EU 2050 Roadmap.<br />
While <strong>the</strong> investment required for <strong>the</strong> deep scenario is considerably greater than for <strong>the</strong> earlier scenarios,<br />
so are <strong>the</strong> savings, as demonstrated in <strong>the</strong> table below.<br />
By 2020, societal savings will amount to €1,656 billion including externalities. This figure represents<br />
almost a doubling compared to scenario 2. On <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand, investment costs until 2020 are also<br />
highest of all scenarios, amounting to €477 billion which is due to <strong>the</strong> fact that deep renovation measures<br />
are introduced quickly and on a large scale, leading to large energy savings but also requiring larger<br />
investments. Compared to all o<strong>the</strong>r scenarios, this is equivalent to an almost doubling of <strong>the</strong> investment<br />
costs in <strong>the</strong> period to 2020, or nearly a five-fold increase compared to <strong>the</strong> baseline. As a result, <strong>the</strong> internal<br />
rate of return of 9% is slightly lower than in <strong>the</strong> previous scenario. However, <strong>the</strong> savings at present value<br />
are still higher than <strong>the</strong> investment costs, delivering a net saving for consumers of €10 billion.<br />
Looking ahead to 2050, <strong>the</strong> internal rate of return increases to 11.8%, however, it is only <strong>the</strong> fourth highest<br />
of all scenarios. This can be explained by <strong>the</strong> fact that <strong>the</strong> total amount of initial costs for deep renovation<br />
measures are relatively higher due to <strong>the</strong>ir fast introduction in <strong>the</strong> first half of <strong>the</strong> scenario period. This<br />
prevents <strong>the</strong> learning effects to have a full impact on cost reduction of deep measures.<br />
As in <strong>the</strong> case to 2020, <strong>the</strong> investment costs of this scenario are <strong>the</strong> highest also in <strong>the</strong> years to 2050,<br />
amounting to €937 billion. However, savings are also <strong>the</strong> highest at €1,318 billion, resulting in a net<br />
saving for consumers of €381 billion.<br />
The impact on employment creation is <strong>the</strong> highest of all scenarios. Triggered by <strong>the</strong> relatively fast increase<br />
in <strong>the</strong> renovation rate and by applying deep renovation measures, this scenario leads to <strong>the</strong> creation of<br />
1.1 million direct jobs per year on average for 40 years. This is more or less equivalent to employing 1.1<br />
million people for <strong>the</strong>ir full working life time.<br />
Table 3C4 – Key results of scenario 3<br />
Source: <strong>BPIE</strong> model<br />
Scenario<br />
Results<br />
in year...<br />
% energy<br />
saved<br />
% CO 2<br />
saved<br />
Investment<br />
(€bn)<br />
Energy<br />
cost<br />
saving<br />
(€bn)<br />
Net<br />
saving to<br />
consumers<br />
(€bn)<br />
Net saving<br />
to society<br />
(€bn)<br />
3 – Deep 2020 13% 16-35% 477 487 10 1656<br />
3 - Deep 2050 68% 71-90% 937 1,318 381 9,767<br />
To summarize, this scenario delivers high energy and CO 2<br />
savings, while also delivering <strong>the</strong> highest<br />
employment effects. However, it also requires a steep increase in investments in this decade which would<br />
represent a step change compared to <strong>the</strong> current reality of renovation practices in <strong>Europe</strong>.<br />
116 | <strong>Europe</strong>’s <strong>buildings</strong> <strong>under</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>microscope</strong>