BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe

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Deep renovation path By the end of this decade, deep renovations become the dominant activity and remain so until 2050. nZEB renovations accelerate from 2020 onwards, such that they account for 30% of the total by 2050, by which time both minor and moderate each account for just 5% of the total. Figure 3B5 – Deep renovation path Source: BPIE model % renovations by depth 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 nZEB deep moderate minor Two-stage renovation path A fourth renovation path depicts the case in which some properties are renovated twice, though with different measures. Properties that undergo minor or moderate renovation between 2011 and 2030, with e.g. new windows and heating systems, are then upgraded 20 years later, to deep and nZEB standards respectively. These second round of renovations occur in addition to first time renovations, which follow the Medium scenario – therefore, the two-stage and Medium scenarios are identical to 2030. Figure 3B6 – Two-stage renovation path Source: BPIE model % renovations by depth 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 moderate to nZEB minor to deep nZEB deep minor moderate 112 | Europe’s buildings under the microscope
C. Setting the scene This section explores six scenarios under which the renovation of the European building stock might evolve over the next 40 years. These scenarios are derived from combinations of the renovation rate and renovation depth pathways as well as the two decarbonisation rates described earlier. One difference between the baseline and the other five scenarios is the age profile of the residential stock being renovated. Except for the baseline scenario, the profile of homes renovated is weighted more heavily towards the older stock in the period 2011-2030, giving a higher energy saving per € of investment during this period. The reason for applying this weighting is on the basis that policies to increase renovation rates would favour older properties where greater energy (and hence carbon) savings can be achieved. Scenario 0 – Baseline (Business As Usual) For the baseline scenario, it is assumed that the prevailing renovation rates (which are predominantly minor) continue until 2050. Unlike the other scenarios, this does not result in a full renovation of the building stock. In fact, at the prevailing renovation rate of just 1% p.a., only 40% of the stock is renovated by 2050. In terms of costs and savings 58 , the baseline scenario requires a total investment of €164 billion to 2050, generating lifetime energy savings to consumers worth €187 billion – i.e. a net saving of €23 billion. Overall benefits to society, including the value of externalities, amount to €1,226 billion. Compared to today’s regulated energy use (heating, ventilation, hot water, cooling and lighting), energy savings of 2% are achieved by 2020, rising to just over 9% by 2050. The corresponding CO 2 savings in 2050 are 18% to 72% (the lower figure is calculated at the low decarbonisation rate; the higher at the fast decarbonisation rate). It can be seen that the baseline scenario falls far short of the level of ambition required to deliver the carbon savings envisaged in the EU 2050 Roadmap. The results in saved energy are minor compared to today, which means that the high CO 2 reductions by 2050 (72%) occur mainly due to a decarbonisation of the energy supply when a 5% annual decarbonisation rate is applied. The table below summarises the key results for 2020 and 2050. Table 3C1 – Key results of scenario 0 Source: BPIE model Scenario Results in year... % energy saved % CO 2 saved 59 Investment (€bn) Energy cost saving (€bn) Net saving to consumers (€bn) Net saving to society (€bn) 0 - Baseline 2020 2% 5-28% 107 94 -13 277 0 - Baseline 2050 9% 18-72% 164 187 23 1226 58 All costs and savings are at present value. Consumer savings (i.e. those arising to end-users – households, businesses and public sector bodies) are discounted by the weighted average consumer discount rate, but do not include externalities. Societal savings are discounted at 3% and include externalities. 59 For the percentage of CO 2 saved, the lower figure reflects the slow decarbonisation rate, while the higher figure reflects the higher decarbonisation rate. Europe’s buildings under the microscope | 113
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Europe’s buildings under the micr
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Foreword Buildings are at the pivot
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ContentS FOREWORD Acknowledgements
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ExEcutivE summAry From the emotiona
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Space standards (expressed through
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Buildings vary remarkably in terms
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The absence of previous requirement
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It is, however, not sufficient to o
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In all the scenarios, the estimated
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Introduction A vital picture of the
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The Challenge Many experts agree th
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Europe’s buildings under the micr
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areas. These factors were defined f
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A. building typology From large com
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The floor space breakdown per count
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IE UK GR NO NL MT SI DK IT SK FR FI
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Figure 1A8 - The non-residential se
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While the dataset of residential bu
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Size Information on the size of non
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Ownership and tenure The ownership
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Data availability on the ownership
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C. Energy Performance It is widely
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Mtoe Figure 1C3 - Historical final
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The performance of households depen
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Within the existing European stock,
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In addition to the lack of sufficie
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Specific energy use (kWh/m 2 a) in
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A. Barriers & Challenges Improving
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years, while many businesses will n
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Lack of advice/information Even wit
Page 61 and 62: Figure 2A2 - Building owner’s dec
Page 63 and 64: B. Regulatory and legislative frame
Page 65 and 66: At the moment all countries have im
Page 67 and 68: Although the certification schemes
Page 69 and 70: Number of countries with penalties
Page 71 and 72: IE IT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK
Page 73 and 74: Table 2B4 - Calculated impacts and
Page 75 and 76: LV NL NO PL PT SI SK SE UK The Mini
Page 77 and 78: Table 2B6 - Summary of building ene
Page 79 and 80: egulated energy and total energy re
Page 81 and 82: LT LV MT NL NO PL PT RO SE SI SK Mi
Page 83 and 84: Prescriptive-based requirements for
Page 85 and 86: iii. Other requirements A number of
Page 87 and 88: Building code requirements for exis
Page 89 and 90: Enforcement and Compliance Building
Page 91 and 92: Financial programmes fall into the
Page 93 and 94: Table 2C2 - A summary of selected f
Page 95 and 96: D. Other Programmes The BPIE 2011 s
Page 97 and 98: Europe’s buildings under the micr
Page 99 and 100: The previous chapters so far have g
Page 101 and 102: Even when viewed purely in economic
Page 103 and 104: At the other end of the scale, reno
Page 105 and 106: New Member States from Central and
Page 107 and 108: Determining the practical limit for
Page 109 and 110: Figure 3B1 - Cost reductions for di
Page 111: projects to assess the viability of
Page 115 and 116: An initially slow growth in the ann
Page 117 and 118: Scenario 4 - Two-stage renovation T
Page 119 and 120: Table 3C7 - Overall results to 2050
Page 121 and 122: Figure 3C3 below compares the prese
Page 123 and 124: Final remarks and policy recommenda
Page 125 and 126: • Finally, the EU should support
Page 127 and 128: • A reliable and continuous data
Page 129 and 130: DEFINITIONS Air-conditioning system
Page 131 and 132: U-Value: is the measure of the rate
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