BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe

projects to assess the viability of achieving energy savings of 60% or more and to provide a learning
opportunity.
In the absence of accurate figures for depths of renovations currently being undertaken, we have assumed
the following split as being the starting point of the scenarios:
• Minor 85% of total renovations
• Moderate 10% of total renovations
• Deep 5% of total renovations
• nZEB negligible
Shallow renovation path
In this option, the minor renovations continue to represent most activity over the next two decades, and
still account for 25% of activity by the middle of the century. Moderate renovations grow steadily over the
period, reaching 50% of total activity in 2050 respectively, while deep renovations grow more modestly,
achieving only 25% of total activity in 2050. nZEB activity continues to be negligible.
% renovations by depth
Figure 3B3 – Shallow renovation path
Source: BPIE model
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
deep moderate minor
Intermediate renovation path
In the intermediate path, minor renovations continue to be most common for the next decade, but
fall away such that, by 2030, they reach just 5% of the total, continuing at that level thereafter 57 . Deep
renovations grow to 65% of activity by 2050, while nZEB renovations are introduced, reaching 5% of
renovations by 2050. The balance is made up of moderate renovations.
% renovations by depth
Figure 3B4 – Intermediate renovation path
Source: BPIE model
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
nZEB deep moderate minor
57
In all scenarios, 5% is the minimum level for minor renovations, to reflect situations where the only improvement in energy performance is due
to replacement of equipment at the end of its life e.g. HVAC equipment, or for some building types (e.g. heritage buildings) where the options to
renovate are limited
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