BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe
BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe
BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe
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over <strong>the</strong> next 5 years, to 2016, followed by a constant renovation rate of just <strong>under</strong> 2.6% for <strong>the</strong> remainder<br />
of <strong>the</strong> period to 2050, a total of 34 years 35 . Conversely, <strong>under</strong> <strong>the</strong> slowest rate of growth (labelled “SLOW”),<br />
renovation activity grows slowly but steadily year on year from 2011, achieving just <strong>under</strong> 4% p.a. in <strong>the</strong><br />
year 2050.<br />
Also illustrated is <strong>the</strong> MEDIUM pathway in between <strong>the</strong>se two levels. This pathway grows steadily over <strong>the</strong><br />
next decade to reach a constant rate of around 2.7% p.a. by 2022. This renovation rate is <strong>the</strong>n maintained<br />
for 28 years, until 2050.<br />
Each of <strong>the</strong> illustrated pathways, o<strong>the</strong>r than <strong>the</strong> baseline, results in <strong>the</strong> same overall outcome in 2050<br />
in terms of floor area of <strong>buildings</strong> renovated – <strong>the</strong> only variable is <strong>the</strong> timing. In any case, each pathway<br />
will put significant requirements on <strong>the</strong> actors in <strong>the</strong> building renovation value chain (i.e. not only <strong>the</strong><br />
construction industry, but also planners, architects, financial service industry etc.) to service <strong>the</strong> growing<br />
renovation demand. To sustain <strong>the</strong>se renovation rates also requires respective regulatory and incentive<br />
schemes.<br />
Figure 3B2 – Profiles of renovation rates considered herein<br />
Source: <strong>BPIE</strong> model<br />
4,00%<br />
3,50%<br />
3,00%<br />
Slow<br />
Medium<br />
Fast<br />
Baseline<br />
2,50%<br />
2,00%<br />
1,50%<br />
1,00%<br />
0,50%<br />
0,00%<br />
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 205<br />
Depth of renovation<br />
The o<strong>the</strong>r key variable in terms of activity is <strong>the</strong> renovation depth, by which we mean <strong>the</strong> proportion of<br />
energy savings 56 achieved in a renovation.<br />
Whilst it is not possible to say with certainty what <strong>the</strong> current depth of renovation is being <strong>under</strong>taken<br />
within <strong>Europe</strong>, <strong>the</strong> available evidence points to a picture where <strong>the</strong> overwhelming majority of activity is<br />
in <strong>the</strong> minor category. Deep renovations, where <strong>the</strong>y do occur, are frequently pilots or demonstration<br />
55<br />
In reality, it is to be expected that renovation activity, <strong>under</strong> all scenarios, would tail off in <strong>the</strong> last few years as <strong>the</strong> market becomes saturated with<br />
fully renovated <strong>buildings</strong>. However, this is a minor effect that has not been modelled as it does not have a significant bearing on <strong>the</strong> full period<br />
between now and 2050, which is <strong>the</strong> main focus of this report<br />
56<br />
based on regulated energy use:- heating, hot water, cooling and lighting<br />
110 | <strong>Europe</strong>’s <strong>buildings</strong> <strong>under</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>microscope</strong>