BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe

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over the next 5 years, to 2016, followed by a constant renovation rate of just under 2.6% for the remainder of the period to 2050, a total of 34 years 35 . Conversely, under the slowest rate of growth (labelled “SLOW”), renovation activity grows slowly but steadily year on year from 2011, achieving just under 4% p.a. in the year 2050. Also illustrated is the MEDIUM pathway in between these two levels. This pathway grows steadily over the next decade to reach a constant rate of around 2.7% p.a. by 2022. This renovation rate is then maintained for 28 years, until 2050. Each of the illustrated pathways, other than the baseline, results in the same overall outcome in 2050 in terms of floor area of buildings renovated – the only variable is the timing. In any case, each pathway will put significant requirements on the actors in the building renovation value chain (i.e. not only the construction industry, but also planners, architects, financial service industry etc.) to service the growing renovation demand. To sustain these renovation rates also requires respective regulatory and incentive schemes. Figure 3B2 – Profiles of renovation rates considered herein Source: BPIE model 4,00% 3,50% 3,00% Slow Medium Fast Baseline 2,50% 2,00% 1,50% 1,00% 0,50% 0,00% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 205 Depth of renovation The other key variable in terms of activity is the renovation depth, by which we mean the proportion of energy savings 56 achieved in a renovation. Whilst it is not possible to say with certainty what the current depth of renovation is being undertaken within Europe, the available evidence points to a picture where the overwhelming majority of activity is in the minor category. Deep renovations, where they do occur, are frequently pilots or demonstration 55 In reality, it is to be expected that renovation activity, under all scenarios, would tail off in the last few years as the market becomes saturated with fully renovated buildings. However, this is a minor effect that has not been modelled as it does not have a significant bearing on the full period between now and 2050, which is the main focus of this report 56 based on regulated energy use:- heating, hot water, cooling and lighting 110 | Europe’s buildings under the microscope
projects to assess the viability of achieving energy savings of 60% or more and to provide a learning opportunity. In the absence of accurate figures for depths of renovations currently being undertaken, we have assumed the following split as being the starting point of the scenarios: • Minor 85% of total renovations • Moderate 10% of total renovations • Deep 5% of total renovations • nZEB negligible Shallow renovation path In this option, the minor renovations continue to represent most activity over the next two decades, and still account for 25% of activity by the middle of the century. Moderate renovations grow steadily over the period, reaching 50% of total activity in 2050 respectively, while deep renovations grow more modestly, achieving only 25% of total activity in 2050. nZEB activity continues to be negligible. % renovations by depth Figure 3B3 – Shallow renovation path Source: BPIE model 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 deep moderate minor Intermediate renovation path In the intermediate path, minor renovations continue to be most common for the next decade, but fall away such that, by 2030, they reach just 5% of the total, continuing at that level thereafter 57 . Deep renovations grow to 65% of activity by 2050, while nZEB renovations are introduced, reaching 5% of renovations by 2050. The balance is made up of moderate renovations. % renovations by depth Figure 3B4 – Intermediate renovation path Source: BPIE model 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 nZEB deep moderate minor 57 In all scenarios, 5% is the minimum level for minor renovations, to reflect situations where the only improvement in energy performance is due to replacement of equipment at the end of its life e.g. HVAC equipment, or for some building types (e.g. heritage buildings) where the options to renovate are limited Europe’s buildings under the microscope | 111
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Europe’s buildings under the micr
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Foreword Buildings are at the pivot
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ContentS FOREWORD Acknowledgements
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ExEcutivE summAry From the emotiona
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Space standards (expressed through
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Buildings vary remarkably in terms
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The absence of previous requirement
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It is, however, not sufficient to o
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In all the scenarios, the estimated
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Introduction A vital picture of the
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The Challenge Many experts agree th
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Europe’s buildings under the micr
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areas. These factors were defined f
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A. building typology From large com
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The floor space breakdown per count
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IE UK GR NO NL MT SI DK IT SK FR FI
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Figure 1A8 - The non-residential se
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While the dataset of residential bu
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Size Information on the size of non
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Ownership and tenure The ownership
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Data availability on the ownership
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C. Energy Performance It is widely
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Mtoe Figure 1C3 - Historical final
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The performance of households depen
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Within the existing European stock,
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In addition to the lack of sufficie
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Specific energy use (kWh/m 2 a) in
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A. Barriers & Challenges Improving
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years, while many businesses will n
Page 59 and 60: Lack of advice/information Even wit
Page 61 and 62: Figure 2A2 - Building owner’s dec
Page 63 and 64: B. Regulatory and legislative frame
Page 65 and 66: At the moment all countries have im
Page 67 and 68: Although the certification schemes
Page 69 and 70: Number of countries with penalties
Page 71 and 72: IE IT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK
Page 73 and 74: Table 2B4 - Calculated impacts and
Page 75 and 76: LV NL NO PL PT SI SK SE UK The Mini
Page 77 and 78: Table 2B6 - Summary of building ene
Page 79 and 80: egulated energy and total energy re
Page 81 and 82: LT LV MT NL NO PL PT RO SE SI SK Mi
Page 83 and 84: Prescriptive-based requirements for
Page 85 and 86: iii. Other requirements A number of
Page 87 and 88: Building code requirements for exis
Page 89 and 90: Enforcement and Compliance Building
Page 91 and 92: Financial programmes fall into the
Page 93 and 94: Table 2C2 - A summary of selected f
Page 95 and 96: D. Other Programmes The BPIE 2011 s
Page 97 and 98: Europe’s buildings under the micr
Page 99 and 100: The previous chapters so far have g
Page 101 and 102: Even when viewed purely in economic
Page 103 and 104: At the other end of the scale, reno
Page 105 and 106: New Member States from Central and
Page 107 and 108: Determining the practical limit for
Page 109: Figure 3B1 - Cost reductions for di
Page 113 and 114: C. Setting the scene This section e
Page 115 and 116: An initially slow growth in the ann
Page 117 and 118: Scenario 4 - Two-stage renovation T
Page 119 and 120: Table 3C7 - Overall results to 2050
Page 121 and 122: Figure 3C3 below compares the prese
Page 123 and 124: Final remarks and policy recommenda
Page 125 and 126: • Finally, the EU should support
Page 127 and 128: • A reliable and continuous data
Page 129 and 130: DEFINITIONS Air-conditioning system
Page 131 and 132: U-Value: is the measure of the rate
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