BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe

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Input data For modelling purposes, the following information derived from section 1 of this report has been used, together with a number of assumptions: • The main target building stock for renovation is the practical limit, based on the existing stock of buildings, less an allowance for demolitions and buildings already renovated. From 2040 onwards, there will also be a small contribution from renovation of buildings constructed in the current decade (2011-2020) • Current rates of activity will be taken as a baseline figure for the year 2010: > Prevailing renovation rates are 1% as the EU average; and > Prevailing renovation depths are predominantly minor. • Energy prices are taken from Eurostat 52 and include all taxes, as these form part of the savings consumers make when reducing their energy imports. • Energy price forecasts are derived from EU Energy Trends to 2030 53 . • When valuing societal benefits, externalities associated with energy use are included 54 . • Two rates of decarbonisation of energy supplies are modelled. The slow rate of decarbonisation is based on that witnessed since 1990 – approx. 0.5% p.a. and reflects a continuation of current activity, i.e. no change to the recent underlying level of decarbonisation. • The fast one takes the decarbonisation rate needed to achieve the levels of carbon reduction assumed in the EU 2050 Roadmap, i.e. approx. 5% p.a. for electricity and 2% for other fuels, where the latter reflects fuel switching from higher to lower carbon sources (including renewables). • The following discount rates have been be applied: > Households 10% > Business 10% > Public Sector 5% > Societal 3% • Cost reduction factors are applied, reflecting the impact of increasing renovation activity over the period to 2050. Higher factors are applied to the deeper renovation profiles, given that there is a steeper learning curve as the volume of activity increases, and the cost of buildings-integrated renewable technologies in particular come down with increasing market maturity. The impact is illustrated in Figure 3B1, with cost reductions ranging from 1% p.a. for minor renovations to 4% p.a. for nZEB renovations. 52 http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/energy/data/database 53 http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/trends_2030/doc/trends_to_2030_update_2009.pdf 54 Externalities, or external costs, reflect the environmental and human health damages arising from energy use. These negative impacts include climate change damage costs associated with emissions of CO2 and other GHGs, as well as impacts on health, agriculture etc. caused by other air pollutants such as NOx, SO2, and particulates associated with energy production and consumption. The damage caused, by and large, is not included in the price we pay for energy and so represents an external cost. For this study, an external cost of €00.4/kWh of electricity production has been used – this is the average of the high and low figures used by the European Environment Agency. 108 | Europe’s buildings under the microscope
Figure 3B1 – Cost reductions for different levels of renovation over time Source: BPIE model 600 500 Renovation costs €/m 2 400 300 200 100 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 nZEB deep moderate minor Renovation variables The three main variables that influence the pathways for building renovation are: • the rate of renovation, expressed as a % of the building stock in a given year; • the depth of renovation, according to the four previously described levels: minor, moderate, deep and nZEB; and • the cost of renovation, which itself varies with depth. The costs of each renovation depth assumed in our modelling are the ones from Table 3.1. The assumptions for the evolution of the renovation rates as well as for the depth of renovation are presented in the following paragraphs. Rate of renovation Our ambition is to see all EU buildings renovated between now and 2050. It can be seen that, in order to achieve 100% renovation within 40 years, an average renovation rate of 2.5% p.a. needs to be attained. However, with current rates as low as 1%, levels of activity need to more than double to achieve the required annual rate. The main variables concerning renovation rates and considered by this model are the speed at which renovation activity ramps up, and the potential peak renovation rate (or saturation value). Taking into account the above-mentioned assumptions and considering at the same time the practical limits of the renovation rate, this model proposes three main growth patterns: SLOW, MEDIUM and FAST. These three growth patterns are benchmarked against a BASELINE which assumes that the current renovation rate remains unchanged over time. The impact on the rate of growth of renovation activity is illustrated in Figure 3B2. It can be seen that an aggressive pathway (labelled “FAST” in the graph) would require a rapid increase in the rate of renovations Europe’s buildings under the microscope | 109
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Europe’s buildings under the micr
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Foreword Buildings are at the pivot
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ContentS FOREWORD Acknowledgements
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ExEcutivE summAry From the emotiona
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Space standards (expressed through
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Buildings vary remarkably in terms
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The absence of previous requirement
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It is, however, not sufficient to o
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In all the scenarios, the estimated
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Introduction A vital picture of the
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The Challenge Many experts agree th
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Europe’s buildings under the micr
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areas. These factors were defined f
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A. building typology From large com
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The floor space breakdown per count
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IE UK GR NO NL MT SI DK IT SK FR FI
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Figure 1A8 - The non-residential se
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While the dataset of residential bu
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Size Information on the size of non
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Ownership and tenure The ownership
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Data availability on the ownership
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C. Energy Performance It is widely
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Mtoe Figure 1C3 - Historical final
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The performance of households depen
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Within the existing European stock,
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In addition to the lack of sufficie
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Specific energy use (kWh/m 2 a) in
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A. Barriers & Challenges Improving
Page 57 and 58: years, while many businesses will n
Page 59 and 60: Lack of advice/information Even wit
Page 61 and 62: Figure 2A2 - Building owner’s dec
Page 63 and 64: B. Regulatory and legislative frame
Page 65 and 66: At the moment all countries have im
Page 67 and 68: Although the certification schemes
Page 69 and 70: Number of countries with penalties
Page 71 and 72: IE IT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK
Page 73 and 74: Table 2B4 - Calculated impacts and
Page 75 and 76: LV NL NO PL PT SI SK SE UK The Mini
Page 77 and 78: Table 2B6 - Summary of building ene
Page 79 and 80: egulated energy and total energy re
Page 81 and 82: LT LV MT NL NO PL PT RO SE SI SK Mi
Page 83 and 84: Prescriptive-based requirements for
Page 85 and 86: iii. Other requirements A number of
Page 87 and 88: Building code requirements for exis
Page 89 and 90: Enforcement and Compliance Building
Page 91 and 92: Financial programmes fall into the
Page 93 and 94: Table 2C2 - A summary of selected f
Page 95 and 96: D. Other Programmes The BPIE 2011 s
Page 97 and 98: Europe’s buildings under the micr
Page 99 and 100: The previous chapters so far have g
Page 101 and 102: Even when viewed purely in economic
Page 103 and 104: At the other end of the scale, reno
Page 105 and 106: New Member States from Central and
Page 107: Determining the practical limit for
Page 111 and 112: projects to assess the viability of
Page 113 and 114: C. Setting the scene This section e
Page 115 and 116: An initially slow growth in the ann
Page 117 and 118: Scenario 4 - Two-stage renovation T
Page 119 and 120: Table 3C7 - Overall results to 2050
Page 121 and 122: Figure 3C3 below compares the prese
Page 123 and 124: Final remarks and policy recommenda
Page 125 and 126: • Finally, the EU should support
Page 127 and 128: • A reliable and continuous data
Page 129 and 130: DEFINITIONS Air-conditioning system
Page 131 and 132: U-Value: is the measure of the rate
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