BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe

Input data
For modelling purposes, the following information derived from section 1 of this report has been used,
together with a number of assumptions:
• The main target building stock for renovation is the practical limit, based on the existing stock of
buildings, less an allowance for demolitions and buildings already renovated. From 2040 onwards,
there will also be a small contribution from renovation of buildings constructed in the current decade
(2011-2020)
• Current rates of activity will be taken as a baseline figure for the year 2010:
> Prevailing renovation rates are 1% as the EU average; and
> Prevailing renovation depths are predominantly minor.
• Energy prices are taken from Eurostat 52 and include all taxes, as these form part of the savings consumers
make when reducing their energy imports.
• Energy price forecasts are derived from EU Energy Trends to 2030 53 .
• When valuing societal benefits, externalities associated with energy use are included 54 .
• Two rates of decarbonisation of energy supplies are modelled. The slow rate of decarbonisation is
based on that witnessed since 1990 – approx. 0.5% p.a. and reflects a continuation of current activity,
i.e. no change to the recent underlying level of decarbonisation.
• The fast one takes the decarbonisation rate needed to achieve the levels of carbon reduction assumed
in the EU 2050 Roadmap, i.e. approx. 5% p.a. for electricity and 2% for other fuels, where the latter
reflects fuel switching from higher to lower carbon sources (including renewables).
• The following discount rates have been be applied:
> Households 10%
> Business 10%
> Public Sector 5%
> Societal 3%
• Cost reduction factors are applied, reflecting the impact of increasing renovation activity over
the period to 2050. Higher factors are applied to the deeper renovation profiles, given that there
is a steeper learning curve as the volume of activity increases, and the cost of buildings-integrated
renewable technologies in particular come down with increasing market maturity. The impact is
illustrated in Figure 3B1, with cost reductions ranging from 1% p.a. for minor renovations to 4% p.a. for
nZEB renovations.
52
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/energy/data/database
53
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/trends_2030/doc/trends_to_2030_update_2009.pdf
54
Externalities, or external costs, reflect the environmental and human health damages arising from energy use. These negative impacts include
climate change damage costs associated with emissions of CO2 and other GHGs, as well as impacts on health, agriculture etc. caused by other
air pollutants such as NOx, SO2, and particulates associated with energy production and consumption. The damage caused, by and large, is not
included in the price we pay for energy and so represents an external cost. For this study, an external cost of €00.4/kWh of electricity production has
been used – this is the average of the high and low figures used by the European Environment Agency.
108 | Europe’s buildings under the microscope