BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe

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B. Overview of the Renovation Model A renovation model has been developed which allows scenarios to be examined that illustrate the impact on energy use and CO 2 emissions of different rates (percentage of buildings renovated each year) and depths of renovation (extent of measures applied and size of resulting energy and emissions reduction) in the residential and non-residential building sectors up to 2050. A number of scenarios have been modelled to illustrate the financial, economic, environmental, employment and energy use impacts of different rates of uptake and depth of building renovation. In particular, the scenarios assess the following outcomes, both annually and in total: • Energy saved – the total energy savings over the lifetime of the measures installed • CO 2 saved – the total CO 2 savings over the lifetime of the measures installed. The CO 2 savings in a given year are calculated by multiplying the energy saved by the weighted average CO 2 emission factor for that year • Total investment required - the total cost of the installed renovation measures, including materials, labour and professional costs • Energy cost savings – the cumulative value of the lifetime energy saving. Savings in a given year are calculated by multiplying that year’s energy saving by the weighted average energy price • Employment impact – the number of full time equivalent jobs created over the 40-year period (2011- 2050), based on employment factor (no. of jobs per €1 million investment) times the average annual investment • Cost-effectiveness indicators: > The internal rate of return (IRR) - based on the net saving each year (i.e. cost saving less investment required in a given year) > Net saving to consumers - the difference between the lifetime energy cost savings and the lifetime investment. Both figures are discounted by the weighted average consumer discount rate. A negative figure indicates a net COST to consumers > Net saving to society, including the value of externalities - the sum of the lifetime energy cost savings and value of externalities, less the lifetime investment. Both figures are discounted by the societal discount rate. A negative figure indicates a net COST to society > Carbon abatement cost – net lifetime societal savings divided by the lifetime carbon savings. A negative figure indicates a net benefit per tonne of CO 2 saved The development of the model is therefore split into two parts: (I) Assessing the practical limit (of floor area to be renovated and the energy use associated with this building floor area); and (II) Examining scenarios. 106 | Europe’s buildings under the microscope
Determining the practical limit for the renovation of the EU building stock The first step in the modelling process was to assess the practical limit of buildings that can undergo low energy renovation in the residential and non-residential building sectors in the 2011 to 2050 timeframe. The practical limit to renovation up to 2050 will be affected by a number of considerations: • Demolitions: Some buildings will be demolished and therefore leave the stock. These buildings are likely to suffer from structural problems or be in areas where supply exceeds demand, and therefore are unlikely candidates for renovation to improve their energy performance. • Heritage Buildings: Many buildings have historical, aesthetic and/or cultural value. As a consequence, planning authorities and other bodies may restrict the extent and type of renovation that can be undertaken. In practice, these buildings are not excluded because there will always be some energy efficiency measures that can be applied, even if it is not a total renovation. Minor and moderate measures may often be feasible in the case of heritage buildings. • Recent Renovations: Some buildings may have undergone renovation in the recent past and this may make future renovation economically less attractive. It is contended that the number of buildings renovated to a level that would prevent the application of further energy savings measures is very small, of the order of 1% of the existing stock. • New Buildings: New buildings constructed between 2011 and 2020 will probably be subject to renovation in the period up to 2050, even if only to replace HVAC equipment. Also, as energy standards for renovation are tightened and new technologies become more widely available and affordable, these will increasingly be deployed on buildings constructed this decade. This will add to the volume of the building stock that comprises the practical limit. Beyond 2020 it is assumed that nZEB requirements under the recast of the EPBD will result in buildings achieving a level of energy performance that will not require further renovation (other than equipment replacement) to 2050. The building stock floor area has therefore been adjusted to arrive at the 2050 practical limit by applying the percentage reductions and increases shown in Table 3B1 to the current floor area for residential and non-residential buildings in the EU27, Norway and Switzerland. Table 3B1 – Adjustments to current building stock to determine the 2050 practical limit Source: BPIE model Adjustment Calculation Percentage increase or reduction Demolitions from 2011 to 2050 Heritage buildings Recent Renovations New Buildings from 2011-2020 Total Adjustment 40 years at 0.2% of the building stock each year Assumed not to prevent renovation at some level Assumed to be very few that would prevent the addition of further energy efficiency measures 10 years at 0.5% of the building stock each year (note simple rather than compound addition) -8% 0% -1% +5% -4% Europe’s buildings under the microscope | 107
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Europe’s buildings under the micr
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Foreword Buildings are at the pivot
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ContentS FOREWORD Acknowledgements
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ExEcutivE summAry From the emotiona
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Space standards (expressed through
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Buildings vary remarkably in terms
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The absence of previous requirement
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It is, however, not sufficient to o
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In all the scenarios, the estimated
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Introduction A vital picture of the
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The Challenge Many experts agree th
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Europe’s buildings under the micr
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areas. These factors were defined f
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A. building typology From large com
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The floor space breakdown per count
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IE UK GR NO NL MT SI DK IT SK FR FI
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Figure 1A8 - The non-residential se
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While the dataset of residential bu
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Size Information on the size of non
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Ownership and tenure The ownership
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Data availability on the ownership
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C. Energy Performance It is widely
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Mtoe Figure 1C3 - Historical final
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The performance of households depen
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Within the existing European stock,
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In addition to the lack of sufficie
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Specific energy use (kWh/m 2 a) in
Page 55 and 56: A. Barriers & Challenges Improving
Page 57 and 58: years, while many businesses will n
Page 59 and 60: Lack of advice/information Even wit
Page 61 and 62: Figure 2A2 - Building owner’s dec
Page 63 and 64: B. Regulatory and legislative frame
Page 65 and 66: At the moment all countries have im
Page 67 and 68: Although the certification schemes
Page 69 and 70: Number of countries with penalties
Page 71 and 72: IE IT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK
Page 73 and 74: Table 2B4 - Calculated impacts and
Page 75 and 76: LV NL NO PL PT SI SK SE UK The Mini
Page 77 and 78: Table 2B6 - Summary of building ene
Page 79 and 80: egulated energy and total energy re
Page 81 and 82: LT LV MT NL NO PL PT RO SE SI SK Mi
Page 83 and 84: Prescriptive-based requirements for
Page 85 and 86: iii. Other requirements A number of
Page 87 and 88: Building code requirements for exis
Page 89 and 90: Enforcement and Compliance Building
Page 91 and 92: Financial programmes fall into the
Page 93 and 94: Table 2C2 - A summary of selected f
Page 95 and 96: D. Other Programmes The BPIE 2011 s
Page 97 and 98: Europe’s buildings under the micr
Page 99 and 100: The previous chapters so far have g
Page 101 and 102: Even when viewed purely in economic
Page 103 and 104: At the other end of the scale, reno
Page 105: New Member States from Central and
Page 109 and 110: Figure 3B1 - Cost reductions for di
Page 111 and 112: projects to assess the viability of
Page 113 and 114: C. Setting the scene This section e
Page 115 and 116: An initially slow growth in the ann
Page 117 and 118: Scenario 4 - Two-stage renovation T
Page 119 and 120: Table 3C7 - Overall results to 2050
Page 121 and 122: Figure 3C3 below compares the prese
Page 123 and 124: Final remarks and policy recommenda
Page 125 and 126: • Finally, the EU should support
Page 127 and 128: • A reliable and continuous data
Page 129 and 130: DEFINITIONS Air-conditioning system
Page 131 and 132: U-Value: is the measure of the rate
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