Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

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74 Table 2.15 Distribution of SYETP commencements, by age and sex 1980-81 15-17 years 18-19 years 20-24 years Numbers of commencements % of all programme commencements Male Female Male Female Male Female SYETP 7.2 10.5 14.6 24.2 23.3 20.1 3315 3.8 Commonwealth 2nd SYETP 2.1 0.8 17.5 27.5 26.2 25.8 240 0.3 Commonwealth SYETP private 27.2 32.0 12.7 14.8 7.4 5.9 47500 54.2 2nd SYETP 19.6 21.2 20.9 22.2 8.3 7.8 23631 3.0 private Extended SYETP 0.9 0.9 25.1 28.9 25.4 18.8 6825 7.8 Total all 87558 programmes Source: BLMR (1983) p16 Table 3.1. Data is Department of Employment and Industrial Relations administrative records for commencements to the programme in 1980-81, which thus only refer to ‘flow’ into the programme and not the total number or ‘stock’ being treated at any one time. Table shows proportions in that sum across to 100 per cent for the programme. ‘2 nd SYETP’ placements refer to commencements where this was the 2 nd eligible period of SYETP assistance – i.e. multiple placements. The Extended SYETP was not in operation until the ‘March 1981’ quarter. Private SYETP placements were mostly in selling and unskilled occupations, with 14.4 per cent in general administrative positions, 23.1 per cent in selling, and 34.4 per cent in semi-skilled jobs. Extended SYETP had 42 per cent of placements in semi-skilled jobs. Private SYETP placements occurred to a large extent in Retail trade (30.9 per cent) and ‘other services’ which excluded public/health or education (11.8 per cent), and manufacturing (33.4 per cent). Extended SYETP had a similar industrial distribution. In comparison, Commonwealth SYETP had relatively higher shares in clerical (both keyboard clerical 21.5 per cent and 25.1 per cent in general administrative) and skilled manual jobs, influenced by the restricted range of tasks in the agencies. 48 Not all placements were completed to the full length of their subsidy period. Overall, more placements terminated due to voluntary withdrawal of trainees than due to dismissal. However, for private sector placements only three quarters of approved subsidy time was used due to non-completion of the full subsidy period. 49 Overall, trainee dismissals and 48 Of course, this meant that the industry was made up of 96.2 per cent ‘public/health or education/other services’. 49 Entrants to Commonwealth placements could not have already experienced a placement lost due to dismissal or voluntary withdrawal (precluding people with former negative experiences). However, after
75 withdrawals occurred at similar junctures in the approved time used, with dismissals on average occurring at 46.3 per cent of the allocated time, and withdrawals at 46.7 per cent of the subsidy period (BLMR (1983): 24). There was variation by State in the completion of placements, mainly due to the mix of Commonwealth/private SYETP. It was noted that in particular Western Australia, which had a higher share of private rather than Commonwealth SYETP placements, the dismissal rate was highest at 25.1% of all approved subsidies, whereas in Tasmania, the dismissal rate was low with 9.4 per cent of all subsidies ending early with dismissal. It was noted that a previous SYETP evaluation 50 found that voluntary withdrawal in the first 8 weeks in private SYETP placements was more likely to occur due to not liking the work or people, but leaving to go to another job was more likely to occur at 8-16 weeks of placement. As the share of time used is quite high for SYETP programmes, shown in Table 2.16, then it is likely most withdrawals would have been to go to another job. There was also State variation in placements to the different education and employment programmes available. Queensland, Western Australia and Victoria were found to have much higher SYETP placement rates than other states. Table 2.17 repeats information about the State placements to the various programmes. The greatest share of placements in each State went to SYETP, and mostly to private SYETP, although the concentration in each state varied from state to state. Western Australia had the highest SYETP participation rate. the first 2 weeks of placement, any placement dismissed could not be replaced. Dismissal was then uncommon in public SYETP placements. (BLMR (1983) p23 footnote 13). 50 BLMR (1983) p33 citing Department of Employment and Youth Affairs (1980) “Special Youth Employment and Training Program SYETP in the private sector: follow-up survey of April 1979 placements”, Melbourne, unpublished.
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i Evaluation of the Australian Wage
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v Declaration I hereby declare that
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in method and assumptions. The orth
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3.3 Data and variables used for est
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List of Tables and Figures Figure 1
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Table A2.0b Univariate Probit of pa
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xv Abstract The job subsidy Special
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1 1: Wage subsidy theory and evalua
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3 programs of providing benefits an
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5 The empirical methods used for th
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7 how the outcomes from these metho
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9 employment effect could be mainly
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11 Real Wage Employment Figure 1.1:
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13 are two types of unemployment, s
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15 Real wages are predetermined whe
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17 Vella (1998), Heckman, Lalonde a
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19 Each individual has two potentia
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21 this case, if there was no data
Page 39 and 40: 23 correlation for the error of the
Page 41 and 42: 25 Table 1.3 collects together some
Page 43 and 44: 27 Table 1.3 Brief overview of rece
Page 45 and 46: 29 necessarily brief. Then, the evi
Page 47 and 48: 31 limited applications, such as fo
Page 49 and 50: 33 who participated. It was conclud
Page 51 and 52: 35 term unemployed for over 12 of t
Page 53 and 54: 37 importance of the subsidy second
Page 55 and 56: 39 differences in characteristics t
Page 57 and 58: 41 Matching methods are theoretical
Page 59 and 60: 43 2.2 SYETP implementation As SYET
Page 61 and 62: 45 In July1978, the subsidy was cal
Page 63 and 64: 47 In January 1979, variations were
Page 65 and 66: 49 benefits were paid at a slightly
Page 67 and 68: 51 2.2.3 SYETP operation Earlier re
Page 69 and 70: 53 ceiling constraints’ applied t
Page 71 and 72: 55 Award Conditions for employment
Page 73 and 74: 57 Harris (2001) claims that during
Page 75 and 76: 59 display boards listed details of
Page 77 and 78: 61 restriction was used. If there w
Page 79 and 80: 63 to the end of the 1980’s. An o
Page 81 and 82: 65 for teens overall had risen, emp
Page 83 and 84: 67 for Australia using data from th
Page 85 and 86: 69 training, can provide a form of
Page 87 and 88: 71 employer survey estimates were t
Page 89: 73 provisions for SYETP and extende
Page 93 and 94: 77 Table 2.17 State usage of progra
Page 95 and 96: 79 2.3.1 Stretton (1982, 1984) 53 S
Page 97 and 98: 81 Stretton attributed the success
Page 99 and 100: 83 included in the employment model
Page 101 and 102: 85 completers. Their argument was t
Page 103 and 104: 87 was an issue for the data. Unlik
Page 105 and 106: 89 Table 2.21 Richardson (1998) Est
Page 107 and 108: 91 2.3.5 General discussion Some ge
Page 109 and 110: 93 Controlling for differences in i
Page 111 and 112: 95 taken by a previous researcher a
Page 113 and 114: 97 If employability is assumed to b
Page 115 and 116: 99 suitability of the underlying as
Page 117 and 118: 101 Heckman, Lalonde and Smith (199
Page 119 and 120: 103 effect on employment relative t
Page 121 and 122: 105 Table 3.1, Part A Employment eq
Page 123 and 124: 107 (-1.80) (-1.80) Tradesperson -0
Page 125 and 126: 109 duration of Pre-June 1984 unemp
Page 127 and 128: 111 4: Study 2 Propensity score mat
Page 129 and 130: 113 Propensity score matching provi
Page 131 and 132: 115 4.2 Propensity score matching m
Page 133 and 134: 117 covariates that influence the a
Page 135 and 136: 119 (7) E(Y c | D=1) = E P(X) {E[Y
Page 137 and 138: 121 For CIA to be plausible, a ‘r
Page 139 and 140: 123 employment and programme partic
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Highest qualification in 1984 (1.56
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127 4.6 Distribution of the propens
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129 Figure 4.3 Histograms of estima
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131 Table 4.5 Summary statistics fo
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133 Table 4.5, that the variance of
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135 Table 4.6 Matching results, Sin
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137 Table 6.3 using Swedish data wi
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139 matching is the ability to weed
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141 Table 4.7 Matching results, All
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143 the unobserved component. If th
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145 5: Study 3 Attrition and non-re
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147 occur by design, because the mi
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149 (1990) extended and improved th
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151 (10) A* = δ 0 + δ 1 x +δ 2 z
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153 again from September to Novembe
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155 5.5.2 Univariate examination of
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157 lower, the job lengths are only
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159 Work limited by health 1984 0.1
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161 The characteristics of the SYET
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163 para-professional Mother not em
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165 comparison group where the shar
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167 5.5.4 Attrition: natural attrit
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169 both sources that impose change
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171 para-professional Father not em
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173 work in later sections, this su
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175 Table 5.6: Effect of selection/
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177 appropriate to discard these fr
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179 Australia/Tasmania. Amongst tho
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181 Table 5.5a Summary statistics b
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183 5.6.1.2 Effects of the non-resp
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185 3 years + -0.35 -0.47 -0.34 -0.
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187 5.7 Multivariate analysis of ef
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189 proportion of time spent unempl
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191 post-school qualification, and
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193 Generally, those variables foun
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195 longj0 Longest job by 1984 < 1
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197 adopted in order to maintain co
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199 6: Study 4 Weighting to counter
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201 Table 6.1, part A Employment eq
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203 Methodist 0.133 0.261 (0.77) (1
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205 CEP referrals 1984 0.143* 0.128
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207 6.2 Results of weighting the PS
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209 The distribution of the propens
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211 Table 6.3 Weighted probit used
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213 (0.76) Tradesperson mtrad 0.20
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215 Table 6.5 Summary statistics fo
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217 Table 6.7 Matching results, sin
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219 6.3 Discussion The comparison o
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221 the selection into SYETP and th
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223 Heteroskedasticity is a violati
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225 Table 7.1, Part A Employment eq
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227 (1.26) (1.28) (1.16) Mothers oc
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229 Other Post-School qualification
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231 7.1.2 Exclusion restriction in
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233 Finally, the third panel of new
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235 Table 7.2 summary of changes to
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237 schooling that was statisticall
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239 (0.25) (0.21) 3 years + -0.50 -
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241 Table 7.4 Summary of distributi
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243 7.2.2 Propensity score matching
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245 original model, but with the pe
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247 maintained, then the Heckman bi
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249 Table 7.6 Weighted Probit used
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251 Table 7.7 Summary of distributi
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253 8: Summary and Conclusions The
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255 over which it ran, the review m
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257 the Heckman and PSM methods wer
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259 posited that that such sensitiv
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261 Description Derivation and deta
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Appendix 2 Tables 263
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2 years 0.28 0.07 (1.70) (1.70) 3 y
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267 Table A2.0b Univariate Probit o
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269 Religion brought up in (1.52) (
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271 hq9_84 Year 9 of school or less
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273 Table A2.1 Continued Means and
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275 mtrad Tradesperson 0.04 0.04 0.
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277 Year 9 of school or less -0.19
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279 Table A2.3 Probit of SYETP part
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281 (0.22) (0.44) (0.67) (0.89) Tra
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283 Table A2.5a Univariate probit f
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285 Manager/professional/para-profe
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3 years + -0.04 (2.13)* CEP referra
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289 Table A2.6 Part A Employment eq
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291 Table A2.6 Part B Selection/par
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301
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BLMR Bureau of Labour Market Resear
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Fay, R.G. (1996) "Enhancing the eff
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Heckman J.J. and Smith, J. A. (1998
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Lewis, H.G. (1963) "Unionism and re
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Quandt, R. (1972) "A new approach t
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Stromback, M. and Dockery, A. (2000
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