Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

63
to the end of the 1980’s. An overview of the change to unemployment across this period
is shown in Table 2.9. It can be seen that the unemployment rate for those aged 15-19
years was substantially higher than for the general population, but that it also fluctuated
in line with the business cycle. In the context of the Australian business cycle, it was
generally considered that the period from late 1981 to mid-1983 was a recession (see for
example EPAC (June 1992) p14 and Windschuttle (1985) p3).
Teenage unemployment rose dramatically between 1981 and 1983. Although teen
participation rates may also have changed with more teenagers remaining in education
(see later discussion) these fluctuations indicate that the share of teens looking for work
was considerable over this period. Paterson and Mackay (1982a) make it clear that
demographic growth was not a source of increased youth labour supply. They note that in
Australia youths had lower than average rates of population increase.
Table 2.9 Unemployment rate Australia 1981-1990, seasonally adjusted
Per cent Total unemployment rate 15-19 years
unemployment rate
January July August
1981 5.9 5.9 13.9
1982 6.0 7.0 16.7
1983 9.3 10.4 22.6
1984 10.3 8.4 21.0
1985 9.3 7.8 18.2
1986 8.5 7.9 19.1
1987 8.9 7.8 18.7
1988 8.3 6.6 15.6
1989 7.4 5.9 13.7
1990 6.7 6.9 16.5
Source: Sheen and Trethewey (1991) Total unemployment: p12 Table 2 Cited from sources ABS Cat
6203.0 Labour Force Australia February 1986, February 1990, January 1991.15-19 years unemployment:
Table “Labour force status of the civilian population aged 15-19: school attendance”.
An additional understanding of unemployment during this period can be gained from the
distribution of unemployment durations amongst the various age groups can be seen from
Table 2.10. Youths in general usually had lower durations of unemployment than older
groups, however school leavers would limit the average duration for teens. Over the
changing business cycle, a rise in the share of newly unemployed would lower the
unemployment duration average for each group.