Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

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28 2: Australian literature review This analysis focuses on wage subsidies, and in particular the Australian SYETP program. Although there have been a few past reviews, these have proceeded with the general aim of summarising labour market programs in Australia from various historical economic or socio-political perspectives [Edwards (1987), Ross (1988), Stretton and Chapman (1990), Webster (1998) Harris (2001)], including governmental reviews [OECD (2001), BLMR (June 1984)]. Some of these have also tried to assess the effectiveness of the programs by canvassing the evaluation evidence to date. The focus here is on extracting information about wage subsidies only and in particular SYETP. The chief intention is to summarise the results and critically assess the micro-evaluation evidence. Some effort is made to retain detail of the data, methods and variables used to achieve the evaluation results, as these can have some bearing on the outcome and can help place our results amongst the evidence to date. The empirical literature covered is limited to microeconomic evaluations. These evaluate programs by looking at the effect on the participant and can establish whether the program changes the outcome for the selected individuals after the program has ended, mainly examining employment. An important aspect of evaluations of this type is that they try to establish whether the participant would have a job anyway, and try to assess this using information about what happens after the program has ended. The brevity of the evaluation review reflects the paucity of formal evaluation in the Australian literature. Empirical evidence for Australian wage subsidies is treated in several parts. Only recent work completed during or after 1980 is included, as this corresponds to the period of SYETP analysed later, but also because this is when published evaluations first occurred in Australia. Australian wage subsidies other than SYETP are firstly briefly treated. Because of the broad extent of SYETP, there were few other subsidies and this section is
29 necessarily brief. Then, the evidence for SYETP is reviewed. Finally, the past evaluation evidence relating to SYETP is critically appraised. As a result of the critical review of past evaluation attempts of SYETP, the later chapters present new evidence for SYETP which attempt to account for the imperfections identified in past evidence. This is then new evidence for the Australian wage subsidy program, SYETP. In an effort to maintain clarity of exposition, the theory associated with the econometric techniques applied is not in the literature review. Instead, each method is expounded within each later study where they are applied. As a result, propensity score matching methods for example, are discussed in study 2 where they are first applied.
Page 1: i Evaluation of the Australian Wage
Page 5 and 6: v Declaration I hereby declare that
Page 7 and 8: in method and assumptions. The orth
Page 9 and 10: 3.3 Data and variables used for est
Page 11 and 12: List of Tables and Figures Figure 1
Page 13 and 14: Table A2.0b Univariate Probit of pa
Page 15 and 16: xv Abstract The job subsidy Special
Page 17 and 18: 1 1: Wage subsidy theory and evalua
Page 19 and 20: 3 programs of providing benefits an
Page 21 and 22: 5 The empirical methods used for th
Page 23 and 24: 7 how the outcomes from these metho
Page 25 and 26: 9 employment effect could be mainly
Page 27 and 28: 11 Real Wage Employment Figure 1.1:
Page 29 and 30: 13 are two types of unemployment, s
Page 31 and 32: 15 Real wages are predetermined whe
Page 33 and 34: 17 Vella (1998), Heckman, Lalonde a
Page 35 and 36: 19 Each individual has two potentia
Page 37 and 38: 21 this case, if there was no data
Page 39 and 40: 23 correlation for the error of the
Page 41 and 42: 25 Table 1.3 collects together some
Page 43: 27 Table 1.3 Brief overview of rece
Page 47 and 48: 31 limited applications, such as fo
Page 49 and 50: 33 who participated. It was conclud
Page 51 and 52: 35 term unemployed for over 12 of t
Page 53 and 54: 37 importance of the subsidy second
Page 55 and 56: 39 differences in characteristics t
Page 57 and 58: 41 Matching methods are theoretical
Page 59 and 60: 43 2.2 SYETP implementation As SYET
Page 61 and 62: 45 In July1978, the subsidy was cal
Page 63 and 64: 47 In January 1979, variations were
Page 65 and 66: 49 benefits were paid at a slightly
Page 67 and 68: 51 2.2.3 SYETP operation Earlier re
Page 69 and 70: 53 ceiling constraints’ applied t
Page 71 and 72: 55 Award Conditions for employment
Page 73 and 74: 57 Harris (2001) claims that during
Page 75 and 76: 59 display boards listed details of
Page 77 and 78: 61 restriction was used. If there w
Page 79 and 80: 63 to the end of the 1980’s. An o
Page 81 and 82: 65 for teens overall had risen, emp
Page 83 and 84: 67 for Australia using data from th
Page 85 and 86: 69 training, can provide a form of
Page 87 and 88: 71 employer survey estimates were t
Page 89 and 90: 73 provisions for SYETP and extende
Page 91 and 92: 75 withdrawals occurred at similar
Page 93 and 94: 77 Table 2.17 State usage of progra
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79 2.3.1 Stretton (1982, 1984) 53 S
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81 Stretton attributed the success
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83 included in the employment model
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85 completers. Their argument was t
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87 was an issue for the data. Unlik
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89 Table 2.21 Richardson (1998) Est
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91 2.3.5 General discussion Some ge
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93 Controlling for differences in i
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95 taken by a previous researcher a
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97 If employability is assumed to b
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99 suitability of the underlying as
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101 Heckman, Lalonde and Smith (199
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103 effect on employment relative t
Page 121 and 122:
105 Table 3.1, Part A Employment eq
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107 (-1.80) (-1.80) Tradesperson -0
Page 125 and 126:
109 duration of Pre-June 1984 unemp
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111 4: Study 2 Propensity score mat
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113 Propensity score matching provi
Page 131 and 132:
115 4.2 Propensity score matching m
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117 covariates that influence the a
Page 135 and 136:
119 (7) E(Y c | D=1) = E P(X) {E[Y
Page 137 and 138:
121 For CIA to be plausible, a ‘r
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123 employment and programme partic
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Highest qualification in 1984 (1.56
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127 4.6 Distribution of the propens
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129 Figure 4.3 Histograms of estima
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131 Table 4.5 Summary statistics fo
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133 Table 4.5, that the variance of
Page 151 and 152:
135 Table 4.6 Matching results, Sin
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137 Table 6.3 using Swedish data wi
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139 matching is the ability to weed
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141 Table 4.7 Matching results, All
Page 159 and 160:
143 the unobserved component. If th
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145 5: Study 3 Attrition and non-re
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147 occur by design, because the mi
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149 (1990) extended and improved th
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151 (10) A* = δ 0 + δ 1 x +δ 2 z
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153 again from September to Novembe
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155 5.5.2 Univariate examination of
Page 173 and 174:
157 lower, the job lengths are only
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159 Work limited by health 1984 0.1
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161 The characteristics of the SYET
Page 179 and 180:
163 para-professional Mother not em
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165 comparison group where the shar
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167 5.5.4 Attrition: natural attrit
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169 both sources that impose change
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171 para-professional Father not em
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173 work in later sections, this su
Page 191 and 192:
175 Table 5.6: Effect of selection/
Page 193 and 194:
177 appropriate to discard these fr
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179 Australia/Tasmania. Amongst tho
Page 197 and 198:
181 Table 5.5a Summary statistics b
Page 199 and 200:
183 5.6.1.2 Effects of the non-resp
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185 3 years + -0.35 -0.47 -0.34 -0.
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187 5.7 Multivariate analysis of ef
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189 proportion of time spent unempl
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191 post-school qualification, and
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193 Generally, those variables foun
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195 longj0 Longest job by 1984 < 1
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197 adopted in order to maintain co
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199 6: Study 4 Weighting to counter
Page 217 and 218:
201 Table 6.1, part A Employment eq
Page 219 and 220:
203 Methodist 0.133 0.261 (0.77) (1
Page 221 and 222:
205 CEP referrals 1984 0.143* 0.128
Page 223 and 224:
207 6.2 Results of weighting the PS
Page 225 and 226:
209 The distribution of the propens
Page 227 and 228:
211 Table 6.3 Weighted probit used
Page 229 and 230:
213 (0.76) Tradesperson mtrad 0.20
Page 231 and 232:
215 Table 6.5 Summary statistics fo
Page 233 and 234:
217 Table 6.7 Matching results, sin
Page 235 and 236:
219 6.3 Discussion The comparison o
Page 237 and 238:
221 the selection into SYETP and th
Page 239 and 240:
223 Heteroskedasticity is a violati
Page 241 and 242:
225 Table 7.1, Part A Employment eq
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227 (1.26) (1.28) (1.16) Mothers oc
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229 Other Post-School qualification
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231 7.1.2 Exclusion restriction in
Page 249 and 250:
233 Finally, the third panel of new
Page 251 and 252:
235 Table 7.2 summary of changes to
Page 253 and 254:
237 schooling that was statisticall
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239 (0.25) (0.21) 3 years + -0.50 -
Page 257 and 258:
241 Table 7.4 Summary of distributi
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243 7.2.2 Propensity score matching
Page 261 and 262:
245 original model, but with the pe
Page 263 and 264:
247 maintained, then the Heckman bi
Page 265 and 266:
249 Table 7.6 Weighted Probit used
Page 267 and 268:
251 Table 7.7 Summary of distributi
Page 269 and 270:
253 8: Summary and Conclusions The
Page 271 and 272:
255 over which it ran, the review m
Page 273 and 274:
257 the Heckman and PSM methods wer
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259 posited that that such sensitiv
Page 277 and 278:
261 Description Derivation and deta
Page 279 and 280:
Appendix 2 Tables 263
Page 281 and 282:
2 years 0.28 0.07 (1.70) (1.70) 3 y
Page 283 and 284:
267 Table A2.0b Univariate Probit o
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269 Religion brought up in (1.52) (
Page 287 and 288:
271 hq9_84 Year 9 of school or less
Page 289 and 290:
273 Table A2.1 Continued Means and
Page 291 and 292:
275 mtrad Tradesperson 0.04 0.04 0.
Page 293 and 294:
277 Year 9 of school or less -0.19
Page 295 and 296:
279 Table A2.3 Probit of SYETP part
Page 297 and 298:
281 (0.22) (0.44) (0.67) (0.89) Tra
Page 299 and 300:
283 Table A2.5a Univariate probit f
Page 301 and 302:
285 Manager/professional/para-profe
Page 303 and 304:
3 years + -0.04 (2.13)* CEP referra
Page 305 and 306:
289 Table A2.6 Part A Employment eq
Page 307 and 308:
291 Table A2.6 Part B Selection/par
Page 309 and 310:
Page 311 and 312:
Page 313 and 314:
Page 315 and 316:
Page 317 and 318:
301
Page 319 and 320:
BLMR Bureau of Labour Market Resear
Page 321 and 322:
Fay, R.G. (1996) "Enhancing the eff
Page 323 and 324:
Heckman J.J. and Smith, J. A. (1998
Page 325 and 326:
Lewis, H.G. (1963) "Unionism and re
Page 327 and 328:
Quandt, R. (1972) "A new approach t
Page 329 and 330:
Stromback, M. and Dockery, A. (2000
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