Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

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Gujurati, D.N. (1988) "Basic Econometrics" McGraw-Hill, Singapore. Ham, J.C. and Lalonde, R.J. (1996) “The effect of sample selection and initial conditions in duration models: evidence from experimental data on training”, Econometrica 64 pp175-205. Hamermesh, D.S. (1978) "Subsidies for jobs in the private sector", pp87-122 in Palmer, J. L. (1978) [ed] "Creating jobs: public employment programs and wage subsidies" Brookings Institute, Washington D.C. Harkman, A., and Johansson, A. (2000) "Training or Subsidised Jobs - What Works? Employment Impact of Seven Swedish Labour Market Programmes", Arbetsmarknadsstyrelsen, mimeo. Harris, M. (1996) "Modelling the probability of youth unemployment in Australia" Economic Record, Vol. 72 no 217 p118-130. Harris, P. (2001) “From relief to mutual obligation: welfare rationalities and unemployment in 20 th century Australia” Journal of Sociology Vol. 37 (1) pp5-24. Hausman, J.A. and Wise, D. (1979) "Attrition bias in experimental and panel data: the GARY income maintenance experiment", Econometrica 46 (6) pp931- 959. Haveman, R.H. (1982) "Marginal employment subsidies" Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris. Heckman, J.J. (1974) "Shadow prices, market wages and labor supply" Econometrica Vol.42 pp 679-694. Heckman, J.J. (1976) "The common structure of statistical models of truncation, sample selection and limited dependent variables and simple estimator for such models" Annals of Economics and Social Measurement Vol. 5 pp475-492. Heckman, J.J. (1978) “Dummy endogenous variables in a simultaneous equation system” Econometrica 46, pp931-959. Heckman, J.J. (1979) "Sample selection bias as specification error", Econometrica 47 pp 153- 161. Heckman, J.J. and Hotz, V.J. (1989) "Choosing among alternative non-experimental methods for estimating the impact of social programs: the case of manpower training" Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 84 no. 408 pp862-874. Heckman, J.J.; Ichimura, H.; Smith, J. and Todd, P.E. (1998) “Characterising selection bias with experimental data” Econometrica 66 1017-1098. Heckman, J.J., Ichimura, H. and Todd, P.E. (1997) "Matching as an econometric evaluation estimator: evidence from evaluating a job training programme", Review of Economic Studies 64(4), pp605-654. Heckman, J.J.; Ichimura, H. and Todd, P.E. (1998) "Matching as an econometric evaluation estimator" Review of Economic Studies 65(1), pp261-294. Heckman, J.J.; Lalonde, R.J.; Smith, J. A. (1999) "The economics and econometrics of active labour market programs" Chapter 31 pp1865-2097 in Ashenfelter, O. C. and Card, D. [eds.] (1999) "Handbook of labour economics Volume 3A", Elsevier Science B.V. Amsterdam. Heckman J.J. and Robb, R. Jr. (1985) "Alternative methods for evaluating the impact of interventions: an overview" Journal of Econometrics Vol. 30, pp239-267. 306
Heckman J.J. and Smith, J. A. (1998) "The sensitivity of experimental impact estimates: evidence from the National JTPA study" in Freeman, R. and Katz, L. [eds.] (1998) "Youth employment and unemployment in the OECD countries, University of Chicago Press, Chicago Illinois. Hoem (1985) "Weighting, misclassification and other issues in the analysis of survey samples of life histories" Chapter 5 in Heckman, J.J. and Singer, B. (Eds.) (1985) "Longitudinal analysis of labor market data", Cambridge University Press. Hoy, M. (1983) "Review of five years of operation of the Special Youth Employment Training Program" Bureau of Labour Market Research Conference Paper No. 18, Department of Employment and Industrial Relations, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra. Hoy, M.A. and Lampe, G.L. (1982) "Women in national training and employment programs" Bureau of Labour Market Research Conference Paper no.13, Department of Employment and Industrial Relations, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra. Hoy, M and Paterson, P. (1983) "Data on national training and employment programs" Bureau of Labour Market Research Technical Paper no.6, Department of Employment and Industrial Relations, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra. Hoy, M.A. and Ryan, C.A. (1984) "Participating employers responses to the SYETP wage subsidy scheme", Bureau of Labour Market Research Working Paper no. 40, Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra. Hsaio, C. (1986) "Analysis of panel data" Cambridge University Press. Hujer, R. and Caliendo, M. (2000) "Evaluation of active labour market policy: methodological concepts and empirical estimates" Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Discussion Paper no. 236, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn. Imbens, Guido (2000) “The Role of the Propensity Score in Estimating Dose-Response Functions” Biometrika. 87: 706-710. Jackman, R.A and Layard, P.R.G (1980) "The efficiency case for long run labour market policies", Economica V 47 pp331-349. Johannesson, J. (1985) "The Swedish experience with labour market policy" Bureau of Labour Market Research Working Paper no.62, Department of Employment and Industrial Relations, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra. Johnson, G.E. and Layard, P.R.G. (1986) " The natural rate of unemployment: explanations and policy" Chapter 16 pp921-999 Volume 2 Ashenfelter, O. and Layard, R. [Eds.] "Handbook of Labor economics" North-Holland, Amsterdam. Johnson, G.E. (1980) "The theory of labour market intervention", Economica V 47, pp309- 329. Junankar, P.N. (1986) "Program of research and actions on the development of the labour market: costs of unemployment", Commission of the European Communities, Luxembourg. Kaldor, N. (1936) "Wage Subsidies as a Remedy for Unemployment" The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 44, No. 6. (Dec., 1936), pp. 721-742 Katz, L.F. (1996) "Wage subsidies for the disadvantaged" National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 5679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge Massachusetts. 307
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i Evaluation of the Australian Wage
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v Declaration I hereby declare that
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in method and assumptions. The orth
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3.3 Data and variables used for est
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List of Tables and Figures Figure 1
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Table A2.0b Univariate Probit of pa
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xv Abstract The job subsidy Special
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1 1: Wage subsidy theory and evalua
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3 programs of providing benefits an
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5 The empirical methods used for th
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7 how the outcomes from these metho
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9 employment effect could be mainly
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11 Real Wage Employment Figure 1.1:
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13 are two types of unemployment, s
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15 Real wages are predetermined whe
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17 Vella (1998), Heckman, Lalonde a
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19 Each individual has two potentia
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21 this case, if there was no data
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23 correlation for the error of the
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25 Table 1.3 collects together some
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27 Table 1.3 Brief overview of rece
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29 necessarily brief. Then, the evi
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31 limited applications, such as fo
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33 who participated. It was conclud
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35 term unemployed for over 12 of t
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37 importance of the subsidy second
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39 differences in characteristics t
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41 Matching methods are theoretical
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43 2.2 SYETP implementation As SYET
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45 In July1978, the subsidy was cal
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47 In January 1979, variations were
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49 benefits were paid at a slightly
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51 2.2.3 SYETP operation Earlier re
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53 ceiling constraints’ applied t
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55 Award Conditions for employment
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57 Harris (2001) claims that during
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59 display boards listed details of
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61 restriction was used. If there w
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63 to the end of the 1980’s. An o
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65 for teens overall had risen, emp
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67 for Australia using data from th
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69 training, can provide a form of
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71 employer survey estimates were t
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73 provisions for SYETP and extende
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75 withdrawals occurred at similar
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77 Table 2.17 State usage of progra
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79 2.3.1 Stretton (1982, 1984) 53 S
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81 Stretton attributed the success
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83 included in the employment model
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85 completers. Their argument was t
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87 was an issue for the data. Unlik
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89 Table 2.21 Richardson (1998) Est
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91 2.3.5 General discussion Some ge
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93 Controlling for differences in i
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95 taken by a previous researcher a
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97 If employability is assumed to b
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99 suitability of the underlying as
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101 Heckman, Lalonde and Smith (199
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103 effect on employment relative t
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105 Table 3.1, Part A Employment eq
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107 (-1.80) (-1.80) Tradesperson -0
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109 duration of Pre-June 1984 unemp
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111 4: Study 2 Propensity score mat
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113 Propensity score matching provi
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115 4.2 Propensity score matching m
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117 covariates that influence the a
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119 (7) E(Y c | D=1) = E P(X) {E[Y
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121 For CIA to be plausible, a ‘r
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123 employment and programme partic
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Highest qualification in 1984 (1.56
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127 4.6 Distribution of the propens
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129 Figure 4.3 Histograms of estima
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131 Table 4.5 Summary statistics fo
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133 Table 4.5, that the variance of
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135 Table 4.6 Matching results, Sin
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137 Table 6.3 using Swedish data wi
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139 matching is the ability to weed
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141 Table 4.7 Matching results, All
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143 the unobserved component. If th
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145 5: Study 3 Attrition and non-re
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147 occur by design, because the mi
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149 (1990) extended and improved th
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151 (10) A* = δ 0 + δ 1 x +δ 2 z
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153 again from September to Novembe
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155 5.5.2 Univariate examination of
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157 lower, the job lengths are only
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159 Work limited by health 1984 0.1
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161 The characteristics of the SYET
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163 para-professional Mother not em
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165 comparison group where the shar
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167 5.5.4 Attrition: natural attrit
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169 both sources that impose change
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171 para-professional Father not em
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173 work in later sections, this su
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175 Table 5.6: Effect of selection/
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177 appropriate to discard these fr
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179 Australia/Tasmania. Amongst tho
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181 Table 5.5a Summary statistics b
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183 5.6.1.2 Effects of the non-resp
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185 3 years + -0.35 -0.47 -0.34 -0.
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187 5.7 Multivariate analysis of ef
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189 proportion of time spent unempl
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191 post-school qualification, and
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193 Generally, those variables foun
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195 longj0 Longest job by 1984 < 1
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197 adopted in order to maintain co
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199 6: Study 4 Weighting to counter
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201 Table 6.1, part A Employment eq
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203 Methodist 0.133 0.261 (0.77) (1
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205 CEP referrals 1984 0.143* 0.128
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207 6.2 Results of weighting the PS
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209 The distribution of the propens
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211 Table 6.3 Weighted probit used
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213 (0.76) Tradesperson mtrad 0.20
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215 Table 6.5 Summary statistics fo
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217 Table 6.7 Matching results, sin
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219 6.3 Discussion The comparison o
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221 the selection into SYETP and th
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223 Heteroskedasticity is a violati
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225 Table 7.1, Part A Employment eq
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227 (1.26) (1.28) (1.16) Mothers oc
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229 Other Post-School qualification
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231 7.1.2 Exclusion restriction in
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233 Finally, the third panel of new
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235 Table 7.2 summary of changes to
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237 schooling that was statisticall
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239 (0.25) (0.21) 3 years + -0.50 -
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241 Table 7.4 Summary of distributi
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243 7.2.2 Propensity score matching
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245 original model, but with the pe
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247 maintained, then the Heckman bi
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249 Table 7.6 Weighted Probit used
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251 Table 7.7 Summary of distributi
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253 8: Summary and Conclusions The
Page 271 and 272: 255 over which it ran, the review m
Page 273 and 274: 257 the Heckman and PSM methods wer
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Page 277 and 278: 261 Description Derivation and deta
Page 279 and 280: Appendix 2 Tables 263
Page 281 and 282: 2 years 0.28 0.07 (1.70) (1.70) 3 y
Page 283 and 284: 267 Table A2.0b Univariate Probit o
Page 285 and 286: 269 Religion brought up in (1.52) (
Page 287 and 288: 271 hq9_84 Year 9 of school or less
Page 289 and 290: 273 Table A2.1 Continued Means and
Page 291 and 292: 275 mtrad Tradesperson 0.04 0.04 0.
Page 293 and 294: 277 Year 9 of school or less -0.19
Page 295 and 296: 279 Table A2.3 Probit of SYETP part
Page 297 and 298: 281 (0.22) (0.44) (0.67) (0.89) Tra
Page 299 and 300: 283 Table A2.5a Univariate probit f
Page 301 and 302: 285 Manager/professional/para-profe
Page 303 and 304: 3 years + -0.04 (2.13)* CEP referra
Page 305 and 306: 289 Table A2.6 Part A Employment eq
Page 307 and 308: 291 Table A2.6 Part B Selection/par
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Page 319 and 320: BLMR Bureau of Labour Market Resear
Page 321: Fay, R.G. (1996) "Enhancing the eff
Page 325 and 326: Lewis, H.G. (1963) "Unionism and re
Page 327 and 328: Quandt, R. (1972) "A new approach t
Page 329 and 330: Stromback, M. and Dockery, A. (2000
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