Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

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278 (1.62) (1.30) (1.46) (1.01) Sales 0.18 0.26 0.05 0.10 (0.79) (1.12) (0.22) (0.44) Tradesperson 0.02 -0.02 -0.05 -0.13 (0.05) (0.06) (0.13) (0.36) Manager/professional/para-professional -0.14 -0.19 -0.19 -0.27 (0.60) (0.83) (0.79) (1.14) Not employed 0.08 -0.00 -0.02 -0.13 (0.46) (0.03) (0.13) (0.74) Mther post-school qualification when resp 14 0.21 0.19 0.20 0.19 Religion brought up in (1.64) (1.45) (1.59) (1.39) Catholic 0.16 0.12 0.10 0.06 (1.27) (0.97) (0.81) (0.46) Presbyterian 0.28 0.21 0.30 0.24 (1.46) (1.05) (1.57) (1.22) Methodist 0.12 0.24 0.11 0.22 (0.60) (1.11) (0.51) (1.03) Other Christian -0.06 -0.11 -0.04 -0.08 (0.26) (0.52) (0.17) (0.36) Other religion 0.16 0.22 0.17 0.22 (0.94) (1.16) (0.94) (1.14) No religion 0.14 0.17 0.08 0.11 (0.94) (1.08) (0.55) (0.69) missing fathers qualifications -0.49 -0.55 (1.60) (1.69) missing mothers qualifications 0.01 0.10 (0.02) (0.42) missing proportion of time spent unemployed -0.07 -0.08 (0.12) (0.16) missing number of siblings 0.20 0.17 (0.79) (0.68) Constant -0.01 -0.33 0.04 -0.26 (0.03) (0.60) (0.07) (0.45) Observations 2368 2368 2150 2150 Log likelihood -503.74 -500.54 -473.52 -467.48 LR chi 2 175 (63) 137.31 (63) 150.58 (59) 125.41 (59) 134.91 Mcfadden’s Pseudo R 2 176 0.1199 0.1284 0.1169 0.1253 Akaike Information Criterion 0.48 0.48 0.50 0.49 Coefficient with t statistic in brackets. Absolute value of z statistics in parentheses * significant at 5%, ** significant at 1%. Base categories: European ethnic origin, state interviewed in 1984 NSW/ACT, government school, highest qualification in 1984 year 10 at school, Longest job by 1984 is 1 year, lived mostly in state capital city until respondent aged 14, English is first language, father clerical worker when respondent aged 14, mother clerical worker when respondent aged 14, religion brought up in is Anglican. 175 This is the likelihood ratio test of the hypothesis that all coefficients except the intercept are equal to zero. 176 This measure of fit is also known as the likelihood ratio index.
279 Table A2.3 Probit of SYETP participation, no missing dummies Before sample reduction, unweighted Before sample reduction, with response weight After sample reduction, unweighted After sample reduction, with response weight (1) (2) (3) (4) syetp syetp syetp syetp Gender=female -0.02 -0.03 0.08 0.06 (0.23) (0.33) (0.66) (0.48) Age at 1984 survey -0.07 -0.05 -0.11 -0.08 (2.84)** (1.94) (3.21)** (2.86)** Married 1984 -0.61 -0.72 -0.97 -1.09 (1.69) (2.31)* (1.62) (4.20)** Children 1984 -0.01 -0.11 0.49 0.33 (0.02) (0.24) (0.73) (0.82) Children*female 0.06 0.43 -0.30 0.03 (0.09) (0.69) (0.36) (0.06) Spouse employed 1984 0.25 0.33 0.59 0.70 (0.52) (0.81) (0.91) (1.93) Aboriginal/Torres Strait Islander -0.70 -0.66 -0.45 -0.37 (1.64) (1.61) (0.96) (0.78) Other ethnic minority 0.08 -0.03 0.06 0.00 State interviewed in 1984 (0.40) (0.16) (0.24) (0.01) Victoria 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.11 (0.43) (0.61) (0.75) (0.70) Queensland -0.08 -0.06 -0.20 -0.13 (0.53) (0.38) (0.97) (0.66) South Australia/Northern Territory 0.12 0.14 -0.12 -0.11 (0.76) (0.89) (0.61) (0.59) Western Australia/Tasmania 0.32 0.37 0.32 0.35 (2.18)* (2.47)* (1.79) (2.02)* Education school overseas -0.05 0.15 0.14 0.38 (0.18) (0.50) (0.40) (1.07) Roman Catholic school -0.37 -0.39 -0.31 -0.27 (1.92) (2.01)* (1.28) (1.15) Private school -0.80 -1.06 -0.72 -0.97 Highest qualification in 1984 (1.90) (2.71)** (1.54) (2.32)* Degree/diploma -0.15 -0.18 0.05 -0.01 (0.80) (0.94) (0.21) (0.03) Apprenticeship -0.29 -0.23 -0.14 -0.12 (1.13) (0.98) (0.43) (0.41) Other Post-School qualification -0.13 -0.11 0.08 0.05 (0.61) (0.55) (0.32) (0.19) Year 12 of school 0.12 0.18 0.41 0.41 (0.83) (1.25) (2.27)* (2.29)* Year 11 of school 0.06 0.08 0.16 0.22 (0.42) (0.56) (0.85) (1.14) Year 9 of school or less -0.09 0.00 -0.14 -0.02 (0.61) (0.01) (0.68) (0.09) Longest job by 1984 none -0.31 -0.24 -0.41 -0.31 (1.63) (1.29) (1.62) (1.33) < 1 year 0.03 0.01 -0.04 -0.12 (0.22) (0.08) (0.22) (0.67) 2 years -0.01 -0.08 0.15 0.04
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i Evaluation of the Australian Wage
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v Declaration I hereby declare that
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in method and assumptions. The orth
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3.3 Data and variables used for est
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List of Tables and Figures Figure 1
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Table A2.0b Univariate Probit of pa
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xv Abstract The job subsidy Special
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1 1: Wage subsidy theory and evalua
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3 programs of providing benefits an
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5 The empirical methods used for th
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7 how the outcomes from these metho
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9 employment effect could be mainly
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11 Real Wage Employment Figure 1.1:
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13 are two types of unemployment, s
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15 Real wages are predetermined whe
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17 Vella (1998), Heckman, Lalonde a
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19 Each individual has two potentia
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21 this case, if there was no data
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23 correlation for the error of the
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25 Table 1.3 collects together some
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27 Table 1.3 Brief overview of rece
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29 necessarily brief. Then, the evi
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31 limited applications, such as fo
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33 who participated. It was conclud
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35 term unemployed for over 12 of t
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37 importance of the subsidy second
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39 differences in characteristics t
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41 Matching methods are theoretical
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43 2.2 SYETP implementation As SYET
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45 In July1978, the subsidy was cal
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47 In January 1979, variations were
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49 benefits were paid at a slightly
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51 2.2.3 SYETP operation Earlier re
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53 ceiling constraints’ applied t
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55 Award Conditions for employment
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57 Harris (2001) claims that during
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59 display boards listed details of
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61 restriction was used. If there w
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63 to the end of the 1980’s. An o
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65 for teens overall had risen, emp
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67 for Australia using data from th
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69 training, can provide a form of
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71 employer survey estimates were t
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73 provisions for SYETP and extende
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75 withdrawals occurred at similar
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77 Table 2.17 State usage of progra
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79 2.3.1 Stretton (1982, 1984) 53 S
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81 Stretton attributed the success
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83 included in the employment model
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85 completers. Their argument was t
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87 was an issue for the data. Unlik
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89 Table 2.21 Richardson (1998) Est
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91 2.3.5 General discussion Some ge
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93 Controlling for differences in i
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95 taken by a previous researcher a
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97 If employability is assumed to b
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99 suitability of the underlying as
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101 Heckman, Lalonde and Smith (199
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103 effect on employment relative t
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105 Table 3.1, Part A Employment eq
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107 (-1.80) (-1.80) Tradesperson -0
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109 duration of Pre-June 1984 unemp
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111 4: Study 2 Propensity score mat
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113 Propensity score matching provi
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115 4.2 Propensity score matching m
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117 covariates that influence the a
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119 (7) E(Y c | D=1) = E P(X) {E[Y
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121 For CIA to be plausible, a ‘r
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123 employment and programme partic
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Highest qualification in 1984 (1.56
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127 4.6 Distribution of the propens
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129 Figure 4.3 Histograms of estima
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131 Table 4.5 Summary statistics fo
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133 Table 4.5, that the variance of
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135 Table 4.6 Matching results, Sin
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137 Table 6.3 using Swedish data wi
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139 matching is the ability to weed
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141 Table 4.7 Matching results, All
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143 the unobserved component. If th
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145 5: Study 3 Attrition and non-re
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147 occur by design, because the mi
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149 (1990) extended and improved th
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151 (10) A* = δ 0 + δ 1 x +δ 2 z
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153 again from September to Novembe
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155 5.5.2 Univariate examination of
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157 lower, the job lengths are only
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159 Work limited by health 1984 0.1
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161 The characteristics of the SYET
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163 para-professional Mother not em
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165 comparison group where the shar
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167 5.5.4 Attrition: natural attrit
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169 both sources that impose change
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171 para-professional Father not em
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173 work in later sections, this su
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175 Table 5.6: Effect of selection/
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177 appropriate to discard these fr
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179 Australia/Tasmania. Amongst tho
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181 Table 5.5a Summary statistics b
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183 5.6.1.2 Effects of the non-resp
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185 3 years + -0.35 -0.47 -0.34 -0.
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187 5.7 Multivariate analysis of ef
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189 proportion of time spent unempl
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191 post-school qualification, and
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193 Generally, those variables foun
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195 longj0 Longest job by 1984 < 1
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197 adopted in order to maintain co
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199 6: Study 4 Weighting to counter
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201 Table 6.1, part A Employment eq
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203 Methodist 0.133 0.261 (0.77) (1
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205 CEP referrals 1984 0.143* 0.128
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207 6.2 Results of weighting the PS
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209 The distribution of the propens
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211 Table 6.3 Weighted probit used
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213 (0.76) Tradesperson mtrad 0.20
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215 Table 6.5 Summary statistics fo
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217 Table 6.7 Matching results, sin
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219 6.3 Discussion The comparison o
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221 the selection into SYETP and th
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223 Heteroskedasticity is a violati
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225 Table 7.1, Part A Employment eq
Page 243 and 244: 227 (1.26) (1.28) (1.16) Mothers oc
Page 245 and 246: 229 Other Post-School qualification
Page 247 and 248: 231 7.1.2 Exclusion restriction in
Page 249 and 250: 233 Finally, the third panel of new
Page 251 and 252: 235 Table 7.2 summary of changes to
Page 253 and 254: 237 schooling that was statisticall
Page 255 and 256: 239 (0.25) (0.21) 3 years + -0.50 -
Page 257 and 258: 241 Table 7.4 Summary of distributi
Page 259 and 260: 243 7.2.2 Propensity score matching
Page 261 and 262: 245 original model, but with the pe
Page 263 and 264: 247 maintained, then the Heckman bi
Page 265 and 266: 249 Table 7.6 Weighted Probit used
Page 267 and 268: 251 Table 7.7 Summary of distributi
Page 269 and 270: 253 8: Summary and Conclusions The
Page 271 and 272: 255 over which it ran, the review m
Page 273 and 274: 257 the Heckman and PSM methods wer
Page 275 and 276: 259 posited that that such sensitiv
Page 277 and 278: 261 Description Derivation and deta
Page 279 and 280: Appendix 2 Tables 263
Page 281 and 282: 2 years 0.28 0.07 (1.70) (1.70) 3 y
Page 283 and 284: 267 Table A2.0b Univariate Probit o
Page 285 and 286: 269 Religion brought up in (1.52) (
Page 287 and 288: 271 hq9_84 Year 9 of school or less
Page 289 and 290: 273 Table A2.1 Continued Means and
Page 291 and 292: 275 mtrad Tradesperson 0.04 0.04 0.
Page 293: 277 Year 9 of school or less -0.19
Page 297 and 298: 281 (0.22) (0.44) (0.67) (0.89) Tra
Page 299 and 300: 283 Table A2.5a Univariate probit f
Page 301 and 302: 285 Manager/professional/para-profe
Page 303 and 304: 3 years + -0.04 (2.13)* CEP referra
Page 305 and 306: 289 Table A2.6 Part A Employment eq
Page 307 and 308: 291 Table A2.6 Part B Selection/par
Page 317 and 318: 301
Page 319 and 320: BLMR Bureau of Labour Market Resear
Page 321 and 322: Fay, R.G. (1996) "Enhancing the eff
Page 323 and 324: Heckman J.J. and Smith, J. A. (1998
Page 325 and 326: Lewis, H.G. (1963) "Unionism and re
Page 327 and 328: Quandt, R. (1972) "A new approach t
Page 329 and 330: Stromback, M. and Dockery, A. (2000
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