Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ... Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

02.06.2014 Views

258 evaluations, as shown in the review, although most of the results can only be considered with strong caveats, due to the inadequate methods employed. At least partially, due to the varying timeframes for the analyses, this gives evidence that SYETP gave employment gains in a dynamic context. In all variations, the research here found positive impacts of SYETP, even if some were not statistically significant, a difficulty influenced by the small sample and efficiency losses from some of the methods. Regardless of whether selection was based on the assumption of observables or unobservables, the impact remained positive. This contributes evidence of the robustness of the positive effect on employment for SYETP participants. The sensitivity of the specifications of both the bivariate probit and the propensity score used for the PSM were explored. In the bivariate probit this centered around the exclusion restriction, and in the propensity score matching the implications of the exclusion restriction for the comparative analysis were investigated. In the case of the bivariate probit, comparisons of the weighted and unweighted results found that the specification has great bearing on the results. An interpretation advanced here is that because sample attrition was confounded with the SYETP program treatment, the bivariate probit accounted for this with the modelling of the selection into the program. Hence, the strong differences in the outcomes of the weighted and unweighted analyses. There were serious difficulties in estimating alternative specifications in the unweighted data, indicating that the search for a plausible specification could be problematic. In the PSM, in line with recent contributions to the matching literature, the variants examined the restriction of the propensity to those variables expected on empirical or theoretical grounds to have significant relations with both SYETP participation and employment. The substantial changes to the results provide a useful illustration of the importance of the modelling assumptions, and indicate that the assumptions involved in matching are not simple. The results show that the statistical modelling uncertainty can be difficult to resolve without clear evidence of a strong basis for favouring one model over another, unless the goodness of fit assessment undertaken provides obvious resolution. It is

259 posited that that such sensitivity analysis, comparing bivariate probit and PSM where the data can lend support to both models, should be provided to enhance evaluation results and provide a form of confidence interval for model selection, and so account for the statistical modelling uncertainty. This exploration has confirmed some relationships suggested in the literature and revealed some new insights into SYETP and wage subsidy employment effects. The research challenges orthodox evaluation methods by applying not one potentially appropriate selection approach, and underlying assumption about observables and unobservables, but both. The benefits are informed overview of the role of the assumption to the evaluation outcome. To the extent that the data allows both methods to be attempted, such as sufficiently extensive data on characteristics of employment and participation, as well as variables that can act as instruments, this allows the conclusion that this approach should be adopted wherever possible. Deliberative attempts were made to constructively account for data and modelling issues. The constraints of the nonexperimental data limit the conclusions for SYETP, as without a benchmark from experimental data, it is not possible to further choose between the model of the Heckman and PSM methods. Although unsatisfying to a small extent, the remaining limitations of this research can inform further work on the evaluation of labour market programmes such as SYETP.

259<br />

posited that that such sensitivity analysis, comparing bivariate probit and PSM where <strong>the</strong><br />

data can lend support to both models, should be provided to enhance evaluation results<br />

and provide a form <strong>of</strong> confidence interval for model selection, and so account for <strong>the</strong><br />

statistical modelling uncertainty.<br />

This exploration has confirmed some relationships suggested in <strong>the</strong> literature and<br />

revealed some new insights into SYETP and wage subsidy employment effects. The<br />

research challenges orthodox evaluation methods by applying not one potentially<br />

appropriate selection approach, and underlying assumption about observables and<br />

unobservables, but both. The benefits are informed overview <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> role <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

assumption to <strong>the</strong> evaluation outcome. To <strong>the</strong> extent that <strong>the</strong> data allows both methods to<br />

be attempted, such as sufficiently extensive data on characteristics <strong>of</strong> employment and<br />

participation, as well as variables that can act as instruments, this allows <strong>the</strong> conclusion<br />

that this approach should be adopted wherever possible. Deliberative attempts were made<br />

to constructively account for data and modelling issues. The constraints <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> nonexperimental<br />

data limit <strong>the</strong> conclusions for SYETP, as without a benchmark from<br />

experimental data, it is not possible to fur<strong>the</strong>r choose between <strong>the</strong> model <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Heckman<br />

and PSM methods. Although unsatisfying to a small extent, <strong>the</strong> remaining limitations <strong>of</strong><br />

this research can inform fur<strong>the</strong>r work on <strong>the</strong> evaluation <strong>of</strong> labour market programmes<br />

such as SYETP.

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