Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ... Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

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254 separate these from the wide dissimilarities in the differing data, methods, environments, subsidy conditions, and other sources of variation. The appraisal of micro-evaluation evidence in Australia also shows the empirical evidence for wage subsidies is not well established and suffers from similar deficiencies. SYETP existed with a broad remit from 1976 to 1985. In the early 1980’s, the ‘Adult Wage Subsidy Scheme’ (AWSS), and ‘General Training Assistance On-Job-Training’ (GTA-OTJ) briefly coexisted with SYETP, and then from 1985 to 1996, Jobstart replaced SYETP. As well as being short-lived, both AWSS and GTA-OTJ were very small in scale, with very little expenditure and few placements and GTA-OTJ was uniquely discretionary in targeting making the eligible group difficult to define. The AWSS was never evaluated and GTA-OTJ was only evaluated relative to other programs. The more recent Jobstart was evaluated several times, mostly using exact matching but with very limited variables, and data on comparisons drawn from surveys but no accounting for non-response. Before 1980, evaluation of SYETP was not published and possibly did not take place. Several evaluations of SYETP undertaken by Stretton (1982, 1984), Baker (1984), Rao and Jones (1984), and Richardson (1998) were appraised in detail. All found positive effects of SYETP on employment. All used survey data, but although most discussed the potential for non-response and even modelled it, none acceptably accounted for it in their evaluation estimations. Some evaluated SYETP relative to other programs, such as GTA-OTJ and other training programs instead of a non-participant comparison group, although the eligible groups do not always clearly overlap. Various forms of regression modelling, such as logit, probit or ordered probit, were used, however only Richardson (1998) accounted for selection using the Heckman selection model of SYETP participation and employment. The inadequacies of past analyses of SYETP contributed three themes to address: suitable modelling of selection to account for the influence of observables or unobservables, dealing with non-response in the observational data, and appropriate control for the differences between the SYETP and comparison groups. The evidence for the economic environment and operation of SYETP provided a useful understanding of the issues affecting the evaluation of SYETP. During the long period

255 over which it ran, the review makes it clear SYETP underwent repeated adjustment, with the eligible groups, amount and length of subsidy, political setting, and economic conditions constantly changing. This gave perspective into the dynamic aspects of labour market programmes, which is often ignored. Micro-evaluations are essentially static, so it is important to maintain awareness that they provide only a snapshot of the employment effects relevant to a particular macroeconomic setting. The summary of the economic context during the period of our empirical studies, 1984- 1986 provided characterisation of the Australian youth labour market that SYETP addressed. Youth minimum wages were institutionally set by the award wage system, and were lower relative to adults. Youths earned about 50-60 per cent of adult wages. Although youth unemployment was high relative to adults, this was countered by rising school participation, and employment. The regional and rural/urban contrasts in Australia contributed to wide variation in the incidence opportunities and unemployment. The CES administered SYETP, but faced a limited supply of registered vacancies that were generally for lower-skilled occupations. Other factors, which have been reviewed here, would also have had a role in affecting the functioning of the SYETP subsidy, including lower relative youth labour costs, elastic demand for youths relative to adults, and substitutability of formal education for on the job training in human capital. There were minimum wages, which would give institutionalised inefficiency of the labour market. Finally, the value of SYETP payments to employers was greater than the unemployment benefits to the eligible unemployed youths, and in turn participants received Award wages that were greater than benefit payments (usually substantially greater). The theory of wage subsidies outlined in Chapter 1 indicates how these might influence the potential for employment gains from a wage subsidy targeted at youths. Together, these features favour the suggestion that SYETP might have given employment gains to those eligible. However, it is impossible in this context to determine whether these features were caused by SYETP, or were merely the backdrop influencing SYETP operation.

255<br />

over which it ran, <strong>the</strong> review makes it clear SYETP underwent repeated adjustment, with<br />

<strong>the</strong> eligible groups, amount and length <strong>of</strong> subsidy, political setting, and economic<br />

conditions constantly changing. This gave perspective into <strong>the</strong> dynamic aspects <strong>of</strong> labour<br />

market programmes, which is <strong>of</strong>ten ignored. Micro-evaluations are essentially static, so it<br />

is important to maintain awareness that <strong>the</strong>y provide only a snapshot <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> employment<br />

effects relevant to a particular macroeconomic setting.<br />

The summary <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> economic context during <strong>the</strong> period <strong>of</strong> our empirical studies, 1984-<br />

1986 provided characterisation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Australian</strong> youth labour market that SYETP<br />

addressed. <strong>Youth</strong> minimum wages were institutionally set by <strong>the</strong> award wage system, and<br />

were lower relative to adults. <strong>Youth</strong>s earned about 50-60 per cent <strong>of</strong> adult wages.<br />

Although youth unemployment was high relative to adults, this was countered by rising<br />

school participation, and employment. The regional and rural/urban contrasts in Australia<br />

contributed to wide variation in <strong>the</strong> incidence opportunities and unemployment. The CES<br />

administered SYETP, but faced a limited supply <strong>of</strong> registered vacancies that were<br />

generally for lower-skilled occupations.<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r factors, which have been reviewed here, would also have had a role in affecting <strong>the</strong><br />

functioning <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> SYETP subsidy, including lower relative youth labour costs, elastic<br />

demand for youths relative to adults, and substitutability <strong>of</strong> formal education for on <strong>the</strong><br />

job training in human capital. There were minimum wages, which would give<br />

institutionalised inefficiency <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> labour market. Finally, <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> SYETP payments<br />

to employers was greater than <strong>the</strong> unemployment benefits to <strong>the</strong> eligible unemployed<br />

youths, and in turn participants received Award wages that were greater than benefit<br />

payments (usually substantially greater). The <strong>the</strong>ory <strong>of</strong> wage subsidies outlined in<br />

Chapter 1 indicates how <strong>the</strong>se might influence <strong>the</strong> potential for employment gains from a<br />

wage subsidy targeted at youths. Toge<strong>the</strong>r, <strong>the</strong>se features favour <strong>the</strong> suggestion that<br />

SYETP might have given employment gains to those eligible. However, it is impossible<br />

in this context to determine whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong>se features were caused by SYETP, or were<br />

merely <strong>the</strong> backdrop influencing SYETP operation.

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