Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ... Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

02.06.2014 Views

240 Manager/professional/paraprofessional -0.31 -0.31 (1.10) (1.09) Not employed -0.12 -0.11 (0.57) (0.55) Mother post-school qualification 0.22 0.21 when resp 14 Religion brought up in (1.26) (1.21) Catholic -0.01 0.00 (0.05) (0.03) Presbyterian 0.31 0.29 (1.29) (1.20) Methodist 0.29 0.28 (1.19) (1.18) Other Christian 0.06 0.04 (0.21) (0.15) Other religion 0.14 0.13 (0.56) (0.53) No religion 0.16 0.13 (0.84) (0.72) Constant 0.44 0.47 (0.65) (0.70) Observations 1283 1283 Log likelihood -303.41 -304.97 LR chi 2 (59) 161 131.99 118.83 Mcfadden’s Pseudo R 2 162 0.1572 0.1528 Akaike Information Criterion 0.56 0.57 Robust z-statistics in parentheses* significant at 5%; ** significant at 1% 161 This is the likelihood ratio test of the hypothesis that all coefficients except the intercept are equal to zero. It is defined as LR = 2 (log likelihood M full – 2 log likelihood M intercept ). The degrees of freedom of this chi squared distributed statistic are equal to the number of constrained parameters i.e. the number of coefficients being tested. 162 This measure of fit is also known as the likelihood ratio index. It compares the full model of parameters (Mfull) to a model with just the intercept (Mintercept). It is defined as R2 = 1 – (log likelihood Mfull / log likelihood Mintercept). The value of Mcfadden’s Pseudo R2 increases as new variables are added.

241 Table 7.4 Summary of distribution of propensity, exclude CEP referrals Distribution of estimated propensity for SYETP treatment group Percentiles Smallest 1% .0096799 .0080714 5% .0209195 .0096799 10% .0391096 .011608 Obs 104 25% .0818465 .0178796 Sum of Wgt. 104 50% .1352024 Mean .1653081 Largest Std. Dev. .1161794 75% .2308325 .4278012 90% .3124363 .456956 Variance .0134977 95% .4151957 .4614879 Skewness 1.059129 99% .4614879 .6016818 Kurtosis 4.17753 Distribution of estimated propensity for comparison group Percentiles Smallest 1% .0003765 .0000136 5% .0025803 .0000267 10% .005414 .0000539 Obs 1179 25% .0176855 .0000611 Sum of Wgt. 1179 50% .0492093 Mean .0743632 Largest Std. Dev. .0793953 75% .1044401 .4422829 90% .1755594 .4788667 Variance .0063036 95% .2357188 .4821222 Skewness 2.031504 99% .3915129 .5711446 Kurtosis 8.35458 The new matching results are shown in column 2 of Table 7.5. To better facilitate comparison, the former results with CEP referrals included are shown in the first column. The matching results are now compared, to show the effect of removing CEP referrals from the specification. The employment effect falls slightly in size, from eight percentage points to six, and statistical significance drops very low. The number of common support cases discarded from the SYETP treatment group does not change. However the number of SYETP matched falls slightly, and the number of comparison cases used to match to them also falls, with more comparison cases used with replacement than before. The mean difference in the propensity scores after matching is of the same magnitude as formerly, however the standard deviation is now slightly larger. The mean standardized bias has risen from 11.04 to 16.15. Overall, the efficiency of the match is judged to be poorer than before.

240<br />

Manager/pr<strong>of</strong>essional/parapr<strong>of</strong>essional<br />

-0.31 -0.31<br />

(1.10) (1.09)<br />

Not employed -0.12 -0.11<br />

(0.57) (0.55)<br />

Mo<strong>the</strong>r post-school qualification 0.22 0.21<br />

when resp 14<br />

Religion brought up in (1.26) (1.21)<br />

Catholic -0.01 0.00<br />

(0.05) (0.03)<br />

Presbyterian 0.31 0.29<br />

(1.29) (1.20)<br />

Methodist 0.29 0.28<br />

(1.19) (1.18)<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r Christian 0.06 0.04<br />

(0.21) (0.15)<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r religion 0.14 0.13<br />

(0.56) (0.53)<br />

No religion 0.16 0.13<br />

(0.84) (0.72)<br />

Constant 0.44 0.47<br />

(0.65) (0.70)<br />

Observations 1283 1283<br />

Log likelihood -303.41 -304.97<br />

LR chi 2 (59) 161 131.99 118.83<br />

Mcfadden’s Pseudo R 2 162<br />

0.1572 0.1528<br />

Akaike Information Criterion 0.56 0.57<br />

Robust z-statistics in paren<strong>the</strong>ses* significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%<br />

161 This is <strong>the</strong> likelihood ratio test <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> hypo<strong>the</strong>sis that all coefficients except <strong>the</strong> intercept are equal to<br />

zero. It is defined as LR = 2 (log likelihood M full – 2 log likelihood M intercept ). The degrees <strong>of</strong> freedom <strong>of</strong> this<br />

chi squared distributed statistic are equal to <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> constrained parameters i.e. <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong><br />

coefficients being tested.<br />

162<br />

This measure <strong>of</strong> fit is also known as <strong>the</strong> likelihood ratio index. It compares <strong>the</strong> full model <strong>of</strong> parameters<br />

(Mfull) to a model with just <strong>the</strong> intercept (Mintercept). It is defined as R2 = 1 – (log likelihood Mfull / log<br />

likelihood Mintercept). The value <strong>of</strong> Mcfadden’s Pseudo R2 increases as new variables are added.

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