Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

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236 7.2 Varying the Propensity Score specification, effects on the match The specification of the propensity score estimated by probit is vital to the propensity score matching outcome. Some variation to this specification is now examined. In this section, the variable CEP referrals is excluded from the model for the propensity score, and the effect on the matching outcome examined. Additionally, a more concise specification for the probit is estimated, using only those variables thought to have most plausible economic influence on SYETP participation and employment. The combined weighting for sample reduction due to attrition and non-response and survey design is applied in all models, with the weighting protocol for the propensity score matching as shown in the earlier chapter. 7.2.1 Propensity score matching and the effect of excluding CEP referrals Recall that the originally estimated propensity specification was designed to be as similar as possible to the Heckman modelling of Richardson (1998), as the aim had been to discover what the result would have been if propensity score matching had been used. It was earlier noted, that at least one variable in the propensity score then estimated might not satisfy the requirement that it influence both employment and participation in SYETP: namely CEP referrals. Table 7.3 shows the full results for the weighted probit when the variable CEP referrals is excluded from the model. The first column shows the former results with the original specification, while the second column is for the specification when CEP referrals is excluded. The predicted fit of the model, calculated as before 160 , shows 85 per cent of cases are predicted correctly. Thus the predictive power of the model remains acceptable, although lower than for the former weighted specification. Other scalar fit measures presented all indicate the new model to be similarly acceptable as the former model. Most changes to the coefficients and t statistics are very slight. Only the variable private 160 A fitted probability exceeding 0.5 is taken to indicate a predicted response to the survey; these predicted responses are compared to the actual participants/non-participants in SYETP to check which cases the model correctly predicted.
237 schooling that was statistically significant in the former model changes with a move to non-significance at conventional levels when CEP referrals is excluded. The distribution of the estimated propensity score prior to matching is shown in Table 7.4. It is useful to compare this distribution to that found for the weighted results using the original specification (see Table 6.5 in the previous chapter). The distribution of the estimated propensity for those in the SYETP treatment group appears only a little changed by the altered specification. In the SYETP treatment group, the limits of the distribution are very similar to those for the former specification, with only very small adjustments to the size of the largest and smallest observed propensities. The mean propensity for the SYETP treatment group is also very similar; however the median had fallen in size from roughly 0.143 to 0.135, which would indicate a slight shift down in the central peak of the distribution. The standard deviation of the propensity for the SYETP treatment group is hardly changed by the new specification. The propensity score distribution for the comparison group is also only changed slightly overall. The greatest effect appears for the lower tail of the distribution for the comparisons, where the smallest estimated propensities have greater size in the altered specification. The mean propensity, median and standard deviation for the comparisons remains very similar to that found for the former specification.
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i Evaluation of the Australian Wage
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v Declaration I hereby declare that
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in method and assumptions. The orth
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3.3 Data and variables used for est
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List of Tables and Figures Figure 1
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Table A2.0b Univariate Probit of pa
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xv Abstract The job subsidy Special
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1 1: Wage subsidy theory and evalua
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3 programs of providing benefits an
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5 The empirical methods used for th
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7 how the outcomes from these metho
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9 employment effect could be mainly
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11 Real Wage Employment Figure 1.1:
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13 are two types of unemployment, s
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15 Real wages are predetermined whe
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17 Vella (1998), Heckman, Lalonde a
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19 Each individual has two potentia
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21 this case, if there was no data
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23 correlation for the error of the
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25 Table 1.3 collects together some
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27 Table 1.3 Brief overview of rece
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29 necessarily brief. Then, the evi
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31 limited applications, such as fo
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33 who participated. It was conclud
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35 term unemployed for over 12 of t
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37 importance of the subsidy second
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39 differences in characteristics t
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41 Matching methods are theoretical
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43 2.2 SYETP implementation As SYET
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45 In July1978, the subsidy was cal
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47 In January 1979, variations were
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49 benefits were paid at a slightly
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51 2.2.3 SYETP operation Earlier re
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53 ceiling constraints’ applied t
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55 Award Conditions for employment
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57 Harris (2001) claims that during
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59 display boards listed details of
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61 restriction was used. If there w
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63 to the end of the 1980’s. An o
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65 for teens overall had risen, emp
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67 for Australia using data from th
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69 training, can provide a form of
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71 employer survey estimates were t
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73 provisions for SYETP and extende
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75 withdrawals occurred at similar
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77 Table 2.17 State usage of progra
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79 2.3.1 Stretton (1982, 1984) 53 S
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81 Stretton attributed the success
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83 included in the employment model
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85 completers. Their argument was t
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87 was an issue for the data. Unlik
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89 Table 2.21 Richardson (1998) Est
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91 2.3.5 General discussion Some ge
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93 Controlling for differences in i
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95 taken by a previous researcher a
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97 If employability is assumed to b
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99 suitability of the underlying as
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101 Heckman, Lalonde and Smith (199
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103 effect on employment relative t
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105 Table 3.1, Part A Employment eq
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107 (-1.80) (-1.80) Tradesperson -0
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109 duration of Pre-June 1984 unemp
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111 4: Study 2 Propensity score mat
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113 Propensity score matching provi
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115 4.2 Propensity score matching m
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117 covariates that influence the a
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119 (7) E(Y c | D=1) = E P(X) {E[Y
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121 For CIA to be plausible, a ‘r
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123 employment and programme partic
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Highest qualification in 1984 (1.56
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127 4.6 Distribution of the propens
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129 Figure 4.3 Histograms of estima
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131 Table 4.5 Summary statistics fo
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133 Table 4.5, that the variance of
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135 Table 4.6 Matching results, Sin
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137 Table 6.3 using Swedish data wi
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139 matching is the ability to weed
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141 Table 4.7 Matching results, All
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143 the unobserved component. If th
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145 5: Study 3 Attrition and non-re
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147 occur by design, because the mi
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149 (1990) extended and improved th
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151 (10) A* = δ 0 + δ 1 x +δ 2 z
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153 again from September to Novembe
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155 5.5.2 Univariate examination of
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157 lower, the job lengths are only
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159 Work limited by health 1984 0.1
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161 The characteristics of the SYET
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163 para-professional Mother not em
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165 comparison group where the shar
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167 5.5.4 Attrition: natural attrit
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169 both sources that impose change
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171 para-professional Father not em
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173 work in later sections, this su
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175 Table 5.6: Effect of selection/
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177 appropriate to discard these fr
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179 Australia/Tasmania. Amongst tho
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181 Table 5.5a Summary statistics b
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183 5.6.1.2 Effects of the non-resp
Page 201 and 202: 185 3 years + -0.35 -0.47 -0.34 -0.
Page 203 and 204: 187 5.7 Multivariate analysis of ef
Page 205 and 206: 189 proportion of time spent unempl
Page 207 and 208: 191 post-school qualification, and
Page 209 and 210: 193 Generally, those variables foun
Page 211 and 212: 195 longj0 Longest job by 1984 < 1
Page 213 and 214: 197 adopted in order to maintain co
Page 215 and 216: 199 6: Study 4 Weighting to counter
Page 217 and 218: 201 Table 6.1, part A Employment eq
Page 219 and 220: 203 Methodist 0.133 0.261 (0.77) (1
Page 221 and 222: 205 CEP referrals 1984 0.143* 0.128
Page 223 and 224: 207 6.2 Results of weighting the PS
Page 225 and 226: 209 The distribution of the propens
Page 227 and 228: 211 Table 6.3 Weighted probit used
Page 229 and 230: 213 (0.76) Tradesperson mtrad 0.20
Page 231 and 232: 215 Table 6.5 Summary statistics fo
Page 233 and 234: 217 Table 6.7 Matching results, sin
Page 235 and 236: 219 6.3 Discussion The comparison o
Page 237 and 238: 221 the selection into SYETP and th
Page 239 and 240: 223 Heteroskedasticity is a violati
Page 241 and 242: 225 Table 7.1, Part A Employment eq
Page 243 and 244: 227 (1.26) (1.28) (1.16) Mothers oc
Page 245 and 246: 229 Other Post-School qualification
Page 247 and 248: 231 7.1.2 Exclusion restriction in
Page 249 and 250: 233 Finally, the third panel of new
Page 251: 235 Table 7.2 summary of changes to
Page 255 and 256: 239 (0.25) (0.21) 3 years + -0.50 -
Page 257 and 258: 241 Table 7.4 Summary of distributi
Page 259 and 260: 243 7.2.2 Propensity score matching
Page 261 and 262: 245 original model, but with the pe
Page 263 and 264: 247 maintained, then the Heckman bi
Page 265 and 266: 249 Table 7.6 Weighted Probit used
Page 267 and 268: 251 Table 7.7 Summary of distributi
Page 269 and 270: 253 8: Summary and Conclusions The
Page 271 and 272: 255 over which it ran, the review m
Page 273 and 274: 257 the Heckman and PSM methods wer
Page 275 and 276: 259 posited that that such sensitiv
Page 277 and 278: 261 Description Derivation and deta
Page 279 and 280: Appendix 2 Tables 263
Page 281 and 282: 2 years 0.28 0.07 (1.70) (1.70) 3 y
Page 283 and 284: 267 Table A2.0b Univariate Probit o
Page 285 and 286: 269 Religion brought up in (1.52) (
Page 287 and 288: 271 hq9_84 Year 9 of school or less
Page 289 and 290: 273 Table A2.1 Continued Means and
Page 291 and 292: 275 mtrad Tradesperson 0.04 0.04 0.
Page 293 and 294: 277 Year 9 of school or less -0.19
Page 295 and 296: 279 Table A2.3 Probit of SYETP part
Page 297 and 298: 281 (0.22) (0.44) (0.67) (0.89) Tra
Page 299 and 300: 283 Table A2.5a Univariate probit f
Page 301 and 302: 285 Manager/professional/para-profe
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3 years + -0.04 (2.13)* CEP referra
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289 Table A2.6 Part A Employment eq
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291 Table A2.6 Part B Selection/par
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301
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BLMR Bureau of Labour Market Resear
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Fay, R.G. (1996) "Enhancing the eff
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Heckman J.J. and Smith, J. A. (1998
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Lewis, H.G. (1963) "Unionism and re
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Quandt, R. (1972) "A new approach t
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Stromback, M. and Dockery, A. (2000
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