Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

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230 (-2.14) (-2.14) (-2.41) Mothers occupation when resp. 14 Mother not present when resp 14 0.480 0.480 0.480 (1.49) (1.49) (1.55) Labourer 0.176 0.177 0.177 (0.57) (0.57) (0.59) Plant operative 0.697* 0.697* 0.697* (2.26) (2.26) (2.30) Sales 0.190 0.190 0.190 (0.66) (0.66) (0.71) Tradesperson 0.119 0.120 0.120 (0.28) (0.29) (0.32) Manager/professional/paraprofessional -0.247 -0.246 -0.246 (-0.85) (-0.84) (-0.90) Not employed 0.041 0.041 0.041 Mother post-school qualification when resp 14 (0.17) (0.18) (0.20) 0.266 0.266 0.266 (1.66) (1.66) (1.70) Religion brought up in Catholic 0.061 0.061 0.061 (0.38) (0.37) (0.39) Presbyterian 0.322 0.322 0.322 (1.34) (1.34) (1.46) Methodist 0.017 0.015 0.015 (0.06) (0.06) (0.05) Other Christian 0.075 0.074 0.074 (0.27) (0.27) (0.27) Other religion 0.176 0.176 0.176 (0.80) (0.80) (0.77) No religion 0.138 0.138 0.138 (0.66) (0.67) (0.69) Observations 1283 1283 1283 Student’s t statistics in brackets; * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1% NOTE 1: results Column 1 are sourced from Table 4 and Table 5 pages 18-21 Richardson (1998). Base categories: European ethnic origin, state interviewed in 1984 NSW/ACT, government school, highest qualification in 1984 year 10 at school, longest job by 1984 is 1 year, lived mostly in state capital city until respondent aged 14, English is first language, father clerical worker when respondent aged 14, mother clerical worker when respondent aged 14, religion brought up in is Anglican.
231 7.1.2 Exclusion restriction in the Heckman model The weighted results for the Heckman model are very different to those of the unweighted, especially for the size and significance of the employment effect on SYETP. As section 5.6.1.1 found, the profile of SYETP treatment varied amongst those lost to selection and attrition, and so the weights that treat this would rebalance to restore the SYETP profile. Thus the weighted specifications are likely to differ from the unweighted as a result of this. Some further potential sources for changes to the employment effect are now investigated. As well, the robustness of the Heckman bivariate probit modelling is explored with sensitivity analysis of the specification. One of the chief considerations of the Heckman bivariate probit modelling is the exclusion restriction. As was noted, in the weighted Heckman results the key variable for the restriction has no independent effect in the participation modelling, whereas in the unweighted model it had been strongly statistically significant and large in size. In addition, in the weighted modelling, the hypothesis tests of the correlation due to selection fail to reject the null hypothesis that no selection is present. The sensitivity analysis here examines the role of the variables chosen for the exclusion restriction, and the validity of the restriction in the weighted and unweighted Heckman model. The two key variables forming the exclusion restriction are age and number of CES referrals to the CEP programme. Tables A2.6, A2.7, A2.8 in the appendix show the effect on the model of changing the specification by including these in the employment equation. The specification remains identical to that previously estimated, but for the change. Table 7.2 shows a summary of key aspects of the changes to the specification. The first two columns show the original results, unweighted and weighted. The table is then formed of a further three panels, with two columns in each panel, unweighted and weighted, where the exclusion restriction is tested by inclusion of the variables in the employment equation. The first panel of new results shows inclusion of age in the employment equation, the second panel gives results when CEP referrals are included in
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i Evaluation of the Australian Wage
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v Declaration I hereby declare that
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in method and assumptions. The orth
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3.3 Data and variables used for est
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List of Tables and Figures Figure 1
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Table A2.0b Univariate Probit of pa
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xv Abstract The job subsidy Special
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1 1: Wage subsidy theory and evalua
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3 programs of providing benefits an
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5 The empirical methods used for th
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7 how the outcomes from these metho
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9 employment effect could be mainly
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11 Real Wage Employment Figure 1.1:
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13 are two types of unemployment, s
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15 Real wages are predetermined whe
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17 Vella (1998), Heckman, Lalonde a
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19 Each individual has two potentia
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21 this case, if there was no data
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23 correlation for the error of the
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25 Table 1.3 collects together some
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27 Table 1.3 Brief overview of rece
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29 necessarily brief. Then, the evi
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31 limited applications, such as fo
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33 who participated. It was conclud
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35 term unemployed for over 12 of t
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37 importance of the subsidy second
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39 differences in characteristics t
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41 Matching methods are theoretical
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43 2.2 SYETP implementation As SYET
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45 In July1978, the subsidy was cal
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47 In January 1979, variations were
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49 benefits were paid at a slightly
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51 2.2.3 SYETP operation Earlier re
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53 ceiling constraints’ applied t
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55 Award Conditions for employment
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57 Harris (2001) claims that during
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59 display boards listed details of
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61 restriction was used. If there w
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63 to the end of the 1980’s. An o
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65 for teens overall had risen, emp
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67 for Australia using data from th
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69 training, can provide a form of
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71 employer survey estimates were t
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73 provisions for SYETP and extende
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75 withdrawals occurred at similar
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77 Table 2.17 State usage of progra
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79 2.3.1 Stretton (1982, 1984) 53 S
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81 Stretton attributed the success
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83 included in the employment model
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85 completers. Their argument was t
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87 was an issue for the data. Unlik
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89 Table 2.21 Richardson (1998) Est
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91 2.3.5 General discussion Some ge
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93 Controlling for differences in i
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95 taken by a previous researcher a
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97 If employability is assumed to b
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99 suitability of the underlying as
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101 Heckman, Lalonde and Smith (199
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103 effect on employment relative t
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105 Table 3.1, Part A Employment eq
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107 (-1.80) (-1.80) Tradesperson -0
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109 duration of Pre-June 1984 unemp
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111 4: Study 2 Propensity score mat
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113 Propensity score matching provi
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115 4.2 Propensity score matching m
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117 covariates that influence the a
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119 (7) E(Y c | D=1) = E P(X) {E[Y
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121 For CIA to be plausible, a ‘r
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123 employment and programme partic
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Highest qualification in 1984 (1.56
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127 4.6 Distribution of the propens
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129 Figure 4.3 Histograms of estima
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131 Table 4.5 Summary statistics fo
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133 Table 4.5, that the variance of
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135 Table 4.6 Matching results, Sin
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137 Table 6.3 using Swedish data wi
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139 matching is the ability to weed
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141 Table 4.7 Matching results, All
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143 the unobserved component. If th
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145 5: Study 3 Attrition and non-re
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147 occur by design, because the mi
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149 (1990) extended and improved th
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151 (10) A* = δ 0 + δ 1 x +δ 2 z
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153 again from September to Novembe
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155 5.5.2 Univariate examination of
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157 lower, the job lengths are only
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159 Work limited by health 1984 0.1
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161 The characteristics of the SYET
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163 para-professional Mother not em
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165 comparison group where the shar
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167 5.5.4 Attrition: natural attrit
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169 both sources that impose change
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171 para-professional Father not em
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173 work in later sections, this su
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175 Table 5.6: Effect of selection/
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177 appropriate to discard these fr
Page 195 and 196: 179 Australia/Tasmania. Amongst tho
Page 197 and 198: 181 Table 5.5a Summary statistics b
Page 199 and 200: 183 5.6.1.2 Effects of the non-resp
Page 201 and 202: 185 3 years + -0.35 -0.47 -0.34 -0.
Page 203 and 204: 187 5.7 Multivariate analysis of ef
Page 205 and 206: 189 proportion of time spent unempl
Page 207 and 208: 191 post-school qualification, and
Page 209 and 210: 193 Generally, those variables foun
Page 211 and 212: 195 longj0 Longest job by 1984 < 1
Page 213 and 214: 197 adopted in order to maintain co
Page 215 and 216: 199 6: Study 4 Weighting to counter
Page 217 and 218: 201 Table 6.1, part A Employment eq
Page 219 and 220: 203 Methodist 0.133 0.261 (0.77) (1
Page 221 and 222: 205 CEP referrals 1984 0.143* 0.128
Page 223 and 224: 207 6.2 Results of weighting the PS
Page 225 and 226: 209 The distribution of the propens
Page 227 and 228: 211 Table 6.3 Weighted probit used
Page 229 and 230: 213 (0.76) Tradesperson mtrad 0.20
Page 231 and 232: 215 Table 6.5 Summary statistics fo
Page 233 and 234: 217 Table 6.7 Matching results, sin
Page 235 and 236: 219 6.3 Discussion The comparison o
Page 237 and 238: 221 the selection into SYETP and th
Page 239 and 240: 223 Heteroskedasticity is a violati
Page 241 and 242: 225 Table 7.1, Part A Employment eq
Page 243 and 244: 227 (1.26) (1.28) (1.16) Mothers oc
Page 245: 229 Other Post-School qualification
Page 249 and 250: 233 Finally, the third panel of new
Page 251 and 252: 235 Table 7.2 summary of changes to
Page 253 and 254: 237 schooling that was statisticall
Page 255 and 256: 239 (0.25) (0.21) 3 years + -0.50 -
Page 257 and 258: 241 Table 7.4 Summary of distributi
Page 259 and 260: 243 7.2.2 Propensity score matching
Page 261 and 262: 245 original model, but with the pe
Page 263 and 264: 247 maintained, then the Heckman bi
Page 265 and 266: 249 Table 7.6 Weighted Probit used
Page 267 and 268: 251 Table 7.7 Summary of distributi
Page 269 and 270: 253 8: Summary and Conclusions The
Page 271 and 272: 255 over which it ran, the review m
Page 273 and 274: 257 the Heckman and PSM methods wer
Page 275 and 276: 259 posited that that such sensitiv
Page 277 and 278: 261 Description Derivation and deta
Page 279 and 280: Appendix 2 Tables 263
Page 281 and 282: 2 years 0.28 0.07 (1.70) (1.70) 3 y
Page 283 and 284: 267 Table A2.0b Univariate Probit o
Page 285 and 286: 269 Religion brought up in (1.52) (
Page 287 and 288: 271 hq9_84 Year 9 of school or less
Page 289 and 290: 273 Table A2.1 Continued Means and
Page 291 and 292: 275 mtrad Tradesperson 0.04 0.04 0.
Page 293 and 294: 277 Year 9 of school or less -0.19
Page 295 and 296: 279 Table A2.3 Probit of SYETP part
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281 (0.22) (0.44) (0.67) (0.89) Tra
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283 Table A2.5a Univariate probit f
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285 Manager/professional/para-profe
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3 years + -0.04 (2.13)* CEP referra
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289 Table A2.6 Part A Employment eq
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291 Table A2.6 Part B Selection/par
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301
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BLMR Bureau of Labour Market Resear
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Fay, R.G. (1996) "Enhancing the eff
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Heckman J.J. and Smith, J. A. (1998
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Lewis, H.G. (1963) "Unionism and re
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Quandt, R. (1972) "A new approach t
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Stromback, M. and Dockery, A. (2000
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