Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

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196 5.9 Attrition Weights from the model As a check on the performance of the weights, the profile of a number of explanatory variables is considered. The application of the weights constructed is shown in Table 5.10. The 1984 survey data is shown in the first column, while the 1986 survey data is shown in the second column. The constructed attrition weights should approximately reproduce the profile of the 1984 data for variables significantly affected by attrition. Applying the weights from the probability model of attrition yields the profile in column 3 of Table 5.10. Column 3 shows that the attrition weight has restored the profile of the 1984 survey quite well. The final two columns in Table 5.10 examine the combination of the attrition weight with the response/selection weight. The fourth column shows the 1984 survey weighted to restore the sampled population profile. The final column shows the profile of the 1986 data restored to the sampled population, where the response/selection weight has been multiplied by the attrition weight. The profile of the 1986 data in column five is now more similar to that of the population. Thus the weights constructed have performed the desired repair to the dataset so that it better reflects the original sample eligible for SYETP. This combined weight is to be used in the analysis of the treatment effects of SYETP, to restore the sampled population characteristics where the ‘1986 panel’ data is used. This is performed in the next study. The summary statistics describing the distribution of the weights for the 1283 cases used in analysis is shown in the Appendix 2 Table A2.4. 5.10 Conclusions Attrition was found to have a substantial effect on participation in SYETP, one of the chief variables for modelling. Non-response and sampling design were investigated, and also found to have important effects on modelling, and so the weight to account for this was adopted. Item non-response was considered and the casewise deletion approach
197 adopted in order to maintain correct standard errors in estimation. Analytical sample reduction was found to suitable for the analysis when it reflected the eligibility criteria for the programme. Weights were constructed to treat attrition, which were combined with the non-response and sampling design weight. The combined weight is to be used for analysis in later chapters.
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i Evaluation of the Australian Wage
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v Declaration I hereby declare that
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in method and assumptions. The orth
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3.3 Data and variables used for est
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List of Tables and Figures Figure 1
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Table A2.0b Univariate Probit of pa
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xv Abstract The job subsidy Special
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1 1: Wage subsidy theory and evalua
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3 programs of providing benefits an
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5 The empirical methods used for th
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7 how the outcomes from these metho
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9 employment effect could be mainly
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11 Real Wage Employment Figure 1.1:
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13 are two types of unemployment, s
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15 Real wages are predetermined whe
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17 Vella (1998), Heckman, Lalonde a
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19 Each individual has two potentia
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21 this case, if there was no data
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23 correlation for the error of the
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25 Table 1.3 collects together some
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27 Table 1.3 Brief overview of rece
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29 necessarily brief. Then, the evi
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31 limited applications, such as fo
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33 who participated. It was conclud
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35 term unemployed for over 12 of t
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37 importance of the subsidy second
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39 differences in characteristics t
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41 Matching methods are theoretical
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43 2.2 SYETP implementation As SYET
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45 In July1978, the subsidy was cal
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47 In January 1979, variations were
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49 benefits were paid at a slightly
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51 2.2.3 SYETP operation Earlier re
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53 ceiling constraints’ applied t
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55 Award Conditions for employment
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57 Harris (2001) claims that during
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59 display boards listed details of
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61 restriction was used. If there w
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63 to the end of the 1980’s. An o
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65 for teens overall had risen, emp
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67 for Australia using data from th
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69 training, can provide a form of
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71 employer survey estimates were t
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73 provisions for SYETP and extende
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75 withdrawals occurred at similar
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77 Table 2.17 State usage of progra
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79 2.3.1 Stretton (1982, 1984) 53 S
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81 Stretton attributed the success
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83 included in the employment model
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85 completers. Their argument was t
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87 was an issue for the data. Unlik
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89 Table 2.21 Richardson (1998) Est
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91 2.3.5 General discussion Some ge
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93 Controlling for differences in i
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95 taken by a previous researcher a
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97 If employability is assumed to b
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99 suitability of the underlying as
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101 Heckman, Lalonde and Smith (199
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103 effect on employment relative t
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105 Table 3.1, Part A Employment eq
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107 (-1.80) (-1.80) Tradesperson -0
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109 duration of Pre-June 1984 unemp
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111 4: Study 2 Propensity score mat
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113 Propensity score matching provi
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115 4.2 Propensity score matching m
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117 covariates that influence the a
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119 (7) E(Y c | D=1) = E P(X) {E[Y
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121 For CIA to be plausible, a ‘r
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123 employment and programme partic
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Highest qualification in 1984 (1.56
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127 4.6 Distribution of the propens
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129 Figure 4.3 Histograms of estima
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131 Table 4.5 Summary statistics fo
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133 Table 4.5, that the variance of
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135 Table 4.6 Matching results, Sin
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137 Table 6.3 using Swedish data wi
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139 matching is the ability to weed
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141 Table 4.7 Matching results, All
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143 the unobserved component. If th
Page 161 and 162: 145 5: Study 3 Attrition and non-re
Page 163 and 164: 147 occur by design, because the mi
Page 165 and 166: 149 (1990) extended and improved th
Page 167 and 168: 151 (10) A* = δ 0 + δ 1 x +δ 2 z
Page 169 and 170: 153 again from September to Novembe
Page 171 and 172: 155 5.5.2 Univariate examination of
Page 173 and 174: 157 lower, the job lengths are only
Page 175 and 176: 159 Work limited by health 1984 0.1
Page 177 and 178: 161 The characteristics of the SYET
Page 179 and 180: 163 para-professional Mother not em
Page 181 and 182: 165 comparison group where the shar
Page 183 and 184: 167 5.5.4 Attrition: natural attrit
Page 185 and 186: 169 both sources that impose change
Page 187 and 188: 171 para-professional Father not em
Page 189 and 190: 173 work in later sections, this su
Page 191 and 192: 175 Table 5.6: Effect of selection/
Page 193 and 194: 177 appropriate to discard these fr
Page 195 and 196: 179 Australia/Tasmania. Amongst tho
Page 197 and 198: 181 Table 5.5a Summary statistics b
Page 199 and 200: 183 5.6.1.2 Effects of the non-resp
Page 201 and 202: 185 3 years + -0.35 -0.47 -0.34 -0.
Page 203 and 204: 187 5.7 Multivariate analysis of ef
Page 205 and 206: 189 proportion of time spent unempl
Page 207 and 208: 191 post-school qualification, and
Page 209 and 210: 193 Generally, those variables foun
Page 211: 195 longj0 Longest job by 1984 < 1
Page 215 and 216: 199 6: Study 4 Weighting to counter
Page 217 and 218: 201 Table 6.1, part A Employment eq
Page 219 and 220: 203 Methodist 0.133 0.261 (0.77) (1
Page 221 and 222: 205 CEP referrals 1984 0.143* 0.128
Page 223 and 224: 207 6.2 Results of weighting the PS
Page 225 and 226: 209 The distribution of the propens
Page 227 and 228: 211 Table 6.3 Weighted probit used
Page 229 and 230: 213 (0.76) Tradesperson mtrad 0.20
Page 231 and 232: 215 Table 6.5 Summary statistics fo
Page 233 and 234: 217 Table 6.7 Matching results, sin
Page 235 and 236: 219 6.3 Discussion The comparison o
Page 237 and 238: 221 the selection into SYETP and th
Page 239 and 240: 223 Heteroskedasticity is a violati
Page 241 and 242: 225 Table 7.1, Part A Employment eq
Page 243 and 244: 227 (1.26) (1.28) (1.16) Mothers oc
Page 245 and 246: 229 Other Post-School qualification
Page 247 and 248: 231 7.1.2 Exclusion restriction in
Page 249 and 250: 233 Finally, the third panel of new
Page 251 and 252: 235 Table 7.2 summary of changes to
Page 253 and 254: 237 schooling that was statisticall
Page 255 and 256: 239 (0.25) (0.21) 3 years + -0.50 -
Page 257 and 258: 241 Table 7.4 Summary of distributi
Page 259 and 260: 243 7.2.2 Propensity score matching
Page 261 and 262: 245 original model, but with the pe
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247 maintained, then the Heckman bi
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249 Table 7.6 Weighted Probit used
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251 Table 7.7 Summary of distributi
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253 8: Summary and Conclusions The
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255 over which it ran, the review m
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257 the Heckman and PSM methods wer
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259 posited that that such sensitiv
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261 Description Derivation and deta
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Appendix 2 Tables 263
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2 years 0.28 0.07 (1.70) (1.70) 3 y
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267 Table A2.0b Univariate Probit o
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269 Religion brought up in (1.52) (
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271 hq9_84 Year 9 of school or less
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273 Table A2.1 Continued Means and
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275 mtrad Tradesperson 0.04 0.04 0.
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277 Year 9 of school or less -0.19
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279 Table A2.3 Probit of SYETP part
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281 (0.22) (0.44) (0.67) (0.89) Tra
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283 Table A2.5a Univariate probit f
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285 Manager/professional/para-profe
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3 years + -0.04 (2.13)* CEP referra
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289 Table A2.6 Part A Employment eq
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291 Table A2.6 Part B Selection/par
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301
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BLMR Bureau of Labour Market Resear
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Fay, R.G. (1996) "Enhancing the eff
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Heckman J.J. and Smith, J. A. (1998
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Lewis, H.G. (1963) "Unionism and re
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Quandt, R. (1972) "A new approach t
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Stromback, M. and Dockery, A. (2000
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