Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

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180 The first group of cases dropped for analysis, were dropped as a treatment for missing information on any of the variables in analysis. The following variables have missing information once attrition is accounted for: parental occupation, parental qualifications, and unemployment spell prior to 3 June 1984. Of these, the unemployment spell information is generally considered the most important for evaluation analysis. However the parental background variables have the greatest extent of missing information. 127 Alternatives to dropping these cases include not using those variables where there is missing information, and inference or imputation of the missing values. This is briefly considered in the next section. With regard to dropping these variables from the analysis: chiefly the unemployment spell would be deemed critical to modelling of participation and employment, and so dropping this variable would introduce misspecification bias, while the others may be potentially useful but could possibly be dropped. As dropping these variables alters the specification of the model, this is considered later in Chapter 7. The second group of cases dropped for analysis described themselves as those in fulltime education at the start of the reference period for the evaluation. The central reason for selecting cases not in fulltime education arises when defining the eligible group for the evaluation. For this rationale, those who are in full-time education at the point of eligibility must be excluded. 128 Retaining these cases would contaminate the comparison group with cases incomparable to those in the SYETP treatment group, since they would not have been eligible to participate in SYETP. In the context of propensity score matching, individuals enrolled in fulltime education have a known probability of SYETP participation equal to zero, and could not make good matches for any SYETP treatment group members, who necessarily have non-zero probabilities of SYETP participation. As this is survey data, and the records are based on recall there is the potential that some part of this may be subject to recall error, but it is not possible to further account for this. 127 It should also be noted that it is quite plausible that respondents did not know or could not recall their parents’ occupation or qualification at the time the respondent was 14. 128 The data here has eligibility set at 3 months unemployment due to the sample selection at June 1984, and also the reference period for the SYETP treatment variable starts on 3 June 1984. Those dropped indicated they were in full-time education in the period prior to June 1984, and not unemployment, which makes them ineligible for SYETP.
181 Table 5.5a Summary statistics by source of sample loss due to analytical selection Mean and standard deviation (s.d.) sample after all sample loss and attrition mean 129 (1) s.d. (2) Those dropped due to missing mean s.d. No. cases for that variable Difference in means 130 (absolute) T –test Those lost – dropped for other analytical selection mean s.d. Difference in means (absolute) syetp 0.08 0.27 0.04 0.19 140 0.04 2.03** 0.05 0.21 0.04 2.38** Female 0.41 0.49 0.39 0.49 140 0.005 0.12 0.39 0.49 0.02 0.55 Average age 1984 19.99 2.41 20.05 2.46 140 0.02 0.10 19.74 2.33 0.25 1.56 Aboriginal/Torres Strait 0.03 0.17 0.06 0.23 140 0.01 0.74 0.04 0.19 0.008 0.65 Islander Other ethnic minority 0.08 0.27 0.10 0.30 140 0.007 0.28 0.09 0.29 0.01 0.63 Married 1984 0.12 0.32 0.15 0.36 140 0.04 1.25 0.02 0.14 0.10 7.97*** Spouse employed 1984 0.06 0.24 0.07 0.25 140 0.002 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.06 8.99*** Children 1984 0.05 0.23 0.11 0.31 140 0.05 1.73* 0.01 0.11 0.04 4.74*** Highest qualification in 1984 Degree/diploma 0.12 0.32 0.09 0.28 140 0.03 1.29 0.10 0.30 0.02 0.98 Apprenticeship 0.08 0.27 0.09 0.29 140 0.01 0.46 0.04 0.19 0.04 3.08*** Other post-school 0.07 0.26 0.09 0.28 140 0.07 0.26 0.001 0.06 qualification Year 12 of school 0.15 0.35 0.09 0.29 140 0.05 1.70* 0.28 0.45 0.14 4.66*** Year 11 of school 0.14 0.35 0.08 0.27 140 0.05 1.74* 0.12 0.33 0.02 0.79 Year 10 of school 0.31 0.46 0.34 0.47 140 0.007 0.16 0.24 0.43 0.07 2.46** Year 9 of school 0.12 0.33 0.20 0.40 140 0.05 1.40 0.09 0.28 0.04 1.91* Parental background when resp. aged 14 Father postschool qualification Mother postschool qualification 0.34 0.47 0.40 0.49 79 0.07 1.15 0.34 0.48 0.006 0.18 0.18 0.39 0.15 0.35 65 0.08 1.88* 0.19 0.40 0.01 0.38 T –test 129 The mean of a 0/1 binary variable is the same as the proportion. 130 The difference is calculated between the mean of those lost from the sample and the mean of those remaining after attrition.
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i Evaluation of the Australian Wage
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v Declaration I hereby declare that
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in method and assumptions. The orth
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3.3 Data and variables used for est
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List of Tables and Figures Figure 1
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Table A2.0b Univariate Probit of pa
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xv Abstract The job subsidy Special
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1 1: Wage subsidy theory and evalua
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3 programs of providing benefits an
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5 The empirical methods used for th
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7 how the outcomes from these metho
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9 employment effect could be mainly
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11 Real Wage Employment Figure 1.1:
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13 are two types of unemployment, s
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15 Real wages are predetermined whe
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17 Vella (1998), Heckman, Lalonde a
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19 Each individual has two potentia
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21 this case, if there was no data
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23 correlation for the error of the
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25 Table 1.3 collects together some
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27 Table 1.3 Brief overview of rece
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29 necessarily brief. Then, the evi
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31 limited applications, such as fo
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33 who participated. It was conclud
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35 term unemployed for over 12 of t
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37 importance of the subsidy second
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39 differences in characteristics t
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41 Matching methods are theoretical
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43 2.2 SYETP implementation As SYET
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45 In July1978, the subsidy was cal
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47 In January 1979, variations were
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49 benefits were paid at a slightly
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51 2.2.3 SYETP operation Earlier re
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53 ceiling constraints’ applied t
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55 Award Conditions for employment
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57 Harris (2001) claims that during
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59 display boards listed details of
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61 restriction was used. If there w
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63 to the end of the 1980’s. An o
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65 for teens overall had risen, emp
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67 for Australia using data from th
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69 training, can provide a form of
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71 employer survey estimates were t
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73 provisions for SYETP and extende
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75 withdrawals occurred at similar
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77 Table 2.17 State usage of progra
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79 2.3.1 Stretton (1982, 1984) 53 S
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81 Stretton attributed the success
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83 included in the employment model
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85 completers. Their argument was t
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87 was an issue for the data. Unlik
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89 Table 2.21 Richardson (1998) Est
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91 2.3.5 General discussion Some ge
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93 Controlling for differences in i
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95 taken by a previous researcher a
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97 If employability is assumed to b
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99 suitability of the underlying as
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101 Heckman, Lalonde and Smith (199
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103 effect on employment relative t
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105 Table 3.1, Part A Employment eq
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107 (-1.80) (-1.80) Tradesperson -0
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109 duration of Pre-June 1984 unemp
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111 4: Study 2 Propensity score mat
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113 Propensity score matching provi
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115 4.2 Propensity score matching m
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117 covariates that influence the a
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119 (7) E(Y c | D=1) = E P(X) {E[Y
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121 For CIA to be plausible, a ‘r
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123 employment and programme partic
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Highest qualification in 1984 (1.56
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127 4.6 Distribution of the propens
Page 145 and 146: 129 Figure 4.3 Histograms of estima
Page 147 and 148: 131 Table 4.5 Summary statistics fo
Page 149 and 150: 133 Table 4.5, that the variance of
Page 151 and 152: 135 Table 4.6 Matching results, Sin
Page 153 and 154: 137 Table 6.3 using Swedish data wi
Page 155 and 156: 139 matching is the ability to weed
Page 157 and 158: 141 Table 4.7 Matching results, All
Page 159 and 160: 143 the unobserved component. If th
Page 161 and 162: 145 5: Study 3 Attrition and non-re
Page 163 and 164: 147 occur by design, because the mi
Page 165 and 166: 149 (1990) extended and improved th
Page 167 and 168: 151 (10) A* = δ 0 + δ 1 x +δ 2 z
Page 169 and 170: 153 again from September to Novembe
Page 171 and 172: 155 5.5.2 Univariate examination of
Page 173 and 174: 157 lower, the job lengths are only
Page 175 and 176: 159 Work limited by health 1984 0.1
Page 177 and 178: 161 The characteristics of the SYET
Page 179 and 180: 163 para-professional Mother not em
Page 181 and 182: 165 comparison group where the shar
Page 183 and 184: 167 5.5.4 Attrition: natural attrit
Page 185 and 186: 169 both sources that impose change
Page 187 and 188: 171 para-professional Father not em
Page 189 and 190: 173 work in later sections, this su
Page 191 and 192: 175 Table 5.6: Effect of selection/
Page 193 and 194: 177 appropriate to discard these fr
Page 195: 179 Australia/Tasmania. Amongst tho
Page 199 and 200: 183 5.6.1.2 Effects of the non-resp
Page 201 and 202: 185 3 years + -0.35 -0.47 -0.34 -0.
Page 203 and 204: 187 5.7 Multivariate analysis of ef
Page 205 and 206: 189 proportion of time spent unempl
Page 207 and 208: 191 post-school qualification, and
Page 209 and 210: 193 Generally, those variables foun
Page 211 and 212: 195 longj0 Longest job by 1984 < 1
Page 213 and 214: 197 adopted in order to maintain co
Page 215 and 216: 199 6: Study 4 Weighting to counter
Page 217 and 218: 201 Table 6.1, part A Employment eq
Page 219 and 220: 203 Methodist 0.133 0.261 (0.77) (1
Page 221 and 222: 205 CEP referrals 1984 0.143* 0.128
Page 223 and 224: 207 6.2 Results of weighting the PS
Page 225 and 226: 209 The distribution of the propens
Page 227 and 228: 211 Table 6.3 Weighted probit used
Page 229 and 230: 213 (0.76) Tradesperson mtrad 0.20
Page 231 and 232: 215 Table 6.5 Summary statistics fo
Page 233 and 234: 217 Table 6.7 Matching results, sin
Page 235 and 236: 219 6.3 Discussion The comparison o
Page 237 and 238: 221 the selection into SYETP and th
Page 239 and 240: 223 Heteroskedasticity is a violati
Page 241 and 242: 225 Table 7.1, Part A Employment eq
Page 243 and 244: 227 (1.26) (1.28) (1.16) Mothers oc
Page 245 and 246: 229 Other Post-School qualification
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231 7.1.2 Exclusion restriction in
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233 Finally, the third panel of new
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235 Table 7.2 summary of changes to
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237 schooling that was statisticall
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239 (0.25) (0.21) 3 years + -0.50 -
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241 Table 7.4 Summary of distributi
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243 7.2.2 Propensity score matching
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245 original model, but with the pe
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247 maintained, then the Heckman bi
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249 Table 7.6 Weighted Probit used
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251 Table 7.7 Summary of distributi
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253 8: Summary and Conclusions The
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255 over which it ran, the review m
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257 the Heckman and PSM methods wer
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259 posited that that such sensitiv
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261 Description Derivation and deta
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Appendix 2 Tables 263
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2 years 0.28 0.07 (1.70) (1.70) 3 y
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267 Table A2.0b Univariate Probit o
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269 Religion brought up in (1.52) (
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271 hq9_84 Year 9 of school or less
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273 Table A2.1 Continued Means and
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275 mtrad Tradesperson 0.04 0.04 0.
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277 Year 9 of school or less -0.19
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279 Table A2.3 Probit of SYETP part
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281 (0.22) (0.44) (0.67) (0.89) Tra
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283 Table A2.5a Univariate probit f
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285 Manager/professional/para-profe
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3 years + -0.04 (2.13)* CEP referra
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289 Table A2.6 Part A Employment eq
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291 Table A2.6 Part B Selection/par
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301
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BLMR Bureau of Labour Market Resear
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Fay, R.G. (1996) "Enhancing the eff
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Heckman J.J. and Smith, J. A. (1998
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Lewis, H.G. (1963) "Unionism and re
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Quandt, R. (1972) "A new approach t
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Stromback, M. and Dockery, A. (2000
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