Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

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166 Table 5.4 Difference between treatment group and comparison group before and after sample reduction SYETP vs. comparison Before Sample reduction Absolute difference in means Female 0.8 2.3*** Average age 1984 1.0*** 1.1*** Aboriginal/Torres Strait Islander 2.5*** 2.1*** Other ethnic minority 1.6*** 0.2 Married 1984 7.9*** 9.6*** Spouse employed 1984 4.0*** 4.4*** Children 1984 1.9*** 3.9*** Highest qualification in 1984 Degree/diploma 4.4*** 4.5*** Apprenticeship 5.4*** 5.7*** Other post-school qualification 1.4*** 0.4 Year 12 of school 4.3*** 9.2*** Year 11 of school 4.0*** 3.7*** Year 10 of school 6.2*** 0.2 Year 9 of school 1.5*** 2.0*** Parental background when resp. aged 14 Father postschool qualification 10.0*** 8.6*** Mother postschool qualification 0.9 2.0*** Father manager, professional, para-professional 2.1 0.8 Father not employed 1.3*** 1.8*** Father not present 2.0*** 3.8*** Mother manager, professional, para-professional 2.6 3.1*** Mother not employed 2.1*** 7.2*** Mother not present 2.3*** 3.7*** Longest job ever held by 1984 Never held a job 1.0 0.1 < 1 year 16.6*** 15.7*** 1 year 0.2 0 2 years 2.3*** 0.6 3 years or more 13.2*** 14*** Average unemployment 107 10.4*** 7.5*** Ever employed in 1986 108 15.8*** 13.6*** Ever government programme 1986 109 4.8*** 3.7*** SYETP vs. comparison After Sample reduction Absolute difference in means 106 106 The statistic for any variable is the absolute value of the difference in means for the treatment and control groups. *** indicates the T statistic, for the hypothesis that the difference in mean in SYETP and the control group is zero, is significant at the 1 percent level of significance. 107 Proportion of 1984 reference period to 3 June spent unemployed. 108 Ever held a non-subsidised, non-government-program job in the 1986 reference period, after the first 17 weeks. 109 Ever go on a government programme, including SYETP, in the 1986 reference period.
167 5.5.4 Attrition: natural attrition or analytical sample reduction? Table 5.5 draws a distinction between the sources of sample reduction. Sample reduction resulting from attrition, where the respondent did not take part in later surveys, is here termed natural attrition. As outlined earlier, further sample reduction through analytical selection also takes place before the final sample used for analysis is reached. Zabel (1998) points out such analytical selection can in theory introduce biases of a similar nature to attrition bias. Indeed, Table 5.5 shows that both forms of sample reduction result in statistically significant differences to the means observed of those remaining in the final sample. This hints that both sources of sample loss may be suspected of altering the sample characteristics. Also, the pattern of differences varies by the form of sample reduction being natural attrition or analytical selection. This signals the added value of treating each source separately in order to allow for differential impacts. The first two columns of Table 5.5 show the mean and standard deviation in the final sample, to which the two sources of sample reduction are compared. The next four columns make up the first panel of the table which relates to the sample lost due to natural attrition, and they show the mean, standard deviation, absolute difference in the means and the t statistic, in a similar fashion to the former tables. The second panel gives the statistics for those lost though analytical selection. Only differences that are statistically significant at normally adopted confidence levels are discussed. The outcome variables ‘ever employed in 1986’ and ‘ever in a government programme in 1986’ are not observable for those lost through natural attrition. It is useful to compare the statistically significant differences in the profile of those remaining in the sample to those lost to natural attrition. Of those not interviewed again: fewer had taken part in SYETP, more had year nine of school but less had year 11, more had held jobs of 1-2 years while less had held jobs of 2-3 years, the proportion of unemployment in 1984 had
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i Evaluation of the Australian Wage
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v Declaration I hereby declare that
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in method and assumptions. The orth
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3.3 Data and variables used for est
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List of Tables and Figures Figure 1
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Table A2.0b Univariate Probit of pa
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xv Abstract The job subsidy Special
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1 1: Wage subsidy theory and evalua
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3 programs of providing benefits an
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5 The empirical methods used for th
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7 how the outcomes from these metho
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9 employment effect could be mainly
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11 Real Wage Employment Figure 1.1:
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13 are two types of unemployment, s
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15 Real wages are predetermined whe
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17 Vella (1998), Heckman, Lalonde a
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19 Each individual has two potentia
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21 this case, if there was no data
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23 correlation for the error of the
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25 Table 1.3 collects together some
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27 Table 1.3 Brief overview of rece
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29 necessarily brief. Then, the evi
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31 limited applications, such as fo
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33 who participated. It was conclud
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35 term unemployed for over 12 of t
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37 importance of the subsidy second
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39 differences in characteristics t
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41 Matching methods are theoretical
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43 2.2 SYETP implementation As SYET
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45 In July1978, the subsidy was cal
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47 In January 1979, variations were
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49 benefits were paid at a slightly
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51 2.2.3 SYETP operation Earlier re
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53 ceiling constraints’ applied t
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55 Award Conditions for employment
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57 Harris (2001) claims that during
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59 display boards listed details of
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61 restriction was used. If there w
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63 to the end of the 1980’s. An o
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65 for teens overall had risen, emp
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67 for Australia using data from th
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69 training, can provide a form of
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71 employer survey estimates were t
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73 provisions for SYETP and extende
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75 withdrawals occurred at similar
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77 Table 2.17 State usage of progra
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79 2.3.1 Stretton (1982, 1984) 53 S
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81 Stretton attributed the success
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83 included in the employment model
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85 completers. Their argument was t
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87 was an issue for the data. Unlik
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89 Table 2.21 Richardson (1998) Est
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91 2.3.5 General discussion Some ge
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93 Controlling for differences in i
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95 taken by a previous researcher a
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97 If employability is assumed to b
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99 suitability of the underlying as
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101 Heckman, Lalonde and Smith (199
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103 effect on employment relative t
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105 Table 3.1, Part A Employment eq
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107 (-1.80) (-1.80) Tradesperson -0
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109 duration of Pre-June 1984 unemp
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111 4: Study 2 Propensity score mat
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113 Propensity score matching provi
Page 131 and 132: 115 4.2 Propensity score matching m
Page 133 and 134: 117 covariates that influence the a
Page 135 and 136: 119 (7) E(Y c | D=1) = E P(X) {E[Y
Page 137 and 138: 121 For CIA to be plausible, a ‘r
Page 139 and 140: 123 employment and programme partic
Page 141 and 142: Highest qualification in 1984 (1.56
Page 143 and 144: 127 4.6 Distribution of the propens
Page 145 and 146: 129 Figure 4.3 Histograms of estima
Page 147 and 148: 131 Table 4.5 Summary statistics fo
Page 149 and 150: 133 Table 4.5, that the variance of
Page 151 and 152: 135 Table 4.6 Matching results, Sin
Page 153 and 154: 137 Table 6.3 using Swedish data wi
Page 155 and 156: 139 matching is the ability to weed
Page 157 and 158: 141 Table 4.7 Matching results, All
Page 159 and 160: 143 the unobserved component. If th
Page 161 and 162: 145 5: Study 3 Attrition and non-re
Page 163 and 164: 147 occur by design, because the mi
Page 165 and 166: 149 (1990) extended and improved th
Page 167 and 168: 151 (10) A* = δ 0 + δ 1 x +δ 2 z
Page 169 and 170: 153 again from September to Novembe
Page 171 and 172: 155 5.5.2 Univariate examination of
Page 173 and 174: 157 lower, the job lengths are only
Page 175 and 176: 159 Work limited by health 1984 0.1
Page 177 and 178: 161 The characteristics of the SYET
Page 179 and 180: 163 para-professional Mother not em
Page 181: 165 comparison group where the shar
Page 185 and 186: 169 both sources that impose change
Page 187 and 188: 171 para-professional Father not em
Page 189 and 190: 173 work in later sections, this su
Page 191 and 192: 175 Table 5.6: Effect of selection/
Page 193 and 194: 177 appropriate to discard these fr
Page 195 and 196: 179 Australia/Tasmania. Amongst tho
Page 197 and 198: 181 Table 5.5a Summary statistics b
Page 199 and 200: 183 5.6.1.2 Effects of the non-resp
Page 201 and 202: 185 3 years + -0.35 -0.47 -0.34 -0.
Page 203 and 204: 187 5.7 Multivariate analysis of ef
Page 205 and 206: 189 proportion of time spent unempl
Page 207 and 208: 191 post-school qualification, and
Page 209 and 210: 193 Generally, those variables foun
Page 211 and 212: 195 longj0 Longest job by 1984 < 1
Page 213 and 214: 197 adopted in order to maintain co
Page 215 and 216: 199 6: Study 4 Weighting to counter
Page 217 and 218: 201 Table 6.1, part A Employment eq
Page 219 and 220: 203 Methodist 0.133 0.261 (0.77) (1
Page 221 and 222: 205 CEP referrals 1984 0.143* 0.128
Page 223 and 224: 207 6.2 Results of weighting the PS
Page 225 and 226: 209 The distribution of the propens
Page 227 and 228: 211 Table 6.3 Weighted probit used
Page 229 and 230: 213 (0.76) Tradesperson mtrad 0.20
Page 231 and 232: 215 Table 6.5 Summary statistics fo
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217 Table 6.7 Matching results, sin
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219 6.3 Discussion The comparison o
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221 the selection into SYETP and th
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223 Heteroskedasticity is a violati
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225 Table 7.1, Part A Employment eq
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227 (1.26) (1.28) (1.16) Mothers oc
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229 Other Post-School qualification
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231 7.1.2 Exclusion restriction in
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233 Finally, the third panel of new
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235 Table 7.2 summary of changes to
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237 schooling that was statisticall
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239 (0.25) (0.21) 3 years + -0.50 -
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241 Table 7.4 Summary of distributi
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243 7.2.2 Propensity score matching
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245 original model, but with the pe
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247 maintained, then the Heckman bi
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249 Table 7.6 Weighted Probit used
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251 Table 7.7 Summary of distributi
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253 8: Summary and Conclusions The
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255 over which it ran, the review m
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257 the Heckman and PSM methods wer
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259 posited that that such sensitiv
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261 Description Derivation and deta
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Appendix 2 Tables 263
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2 years 0.28 0.07 (1.70) (1.70) 3 y
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267 Table A2.0b Univariate Probit o
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269 Religion brought up in (1.52) (
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271 hq9_84 Year 9 of school or less
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273 Table A2.1 Continued Means and
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275 mtrad Tradesperson 0.04 0.04 0.
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277 Year 9 of school or less -0.19
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279 Table A2.3 Probit of SYETP part
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281 (0.22) (0.44) (0.67) (0.89) Tra
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283 Table A2.5a Univariate probit f
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285 Manager/professional/para-profe
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3 years + -0.04 (2.13)* CEP referra
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289 Table A2.6 Part A Employment eq
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291 Table A2.6 Part B Selection/par
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301
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BLMR Bureau of Labour Market Resear
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Fay, R.G. (1996) "Enhancing the eff
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Heckman J.J. and Smith, J. A. (1998
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Lewis, H.G. (1963) "Unionism and re
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Quandt, R. (1972) "A new approach t
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Stromback, M. and Dockery, A. (2000
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