Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...
Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ... Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...
114 Table 4.1 Difference between treatment group and comparison group SYETP mean s.d. Non- SYETP mean Female 43.3 0.50 41.0 0.49 2.3* Average age 1984 19.0 1.97 20.1 2.42 1.1* Aboriginal/Torres Strait Islander 1.0 0.10 3.1 0.17 2.1* Other ethnic minority 7.7 0.27 7.9 0.27 0.2 Married 1984 2.9 0.17 12.5 0.33 9.6* Spouse employed 1984 1.9 0.14 6.3 0.24 4.4* Children 1984 1.9 0.14 5.8 0.23 3.9* Highest qualification in 1984 Degree/diploma 7.7 0.27 12.2 0.33 4.5* Apprenticeship 2.9 0.17 8.6 0.28 5.7* Other post-school qualification 6.7 0.25 7.1 0.26 0.4 Year 12 of school 23.1 0.42 13.9 0.35 9.2* Year 11 of school 17.3 0.38 13.6 0.34 3.7* Year 10 of school 31.7 0.47 31.5 0.46 0.2 Year 9 of school 10.6 0.31 12.6 0.33 2.0* Parental background when resp. aged 14 Father postschool qualification 26.0 0.44 34.6 0.48 8.6* Mother postschool qualification 20.2 0.40 18.2 0.39 2.0* Father manager, professional, para-professional 25.0 0.44 25.8 0.44 0.8 Father not employed 3.8 0.19 5.6 0.23 1.8* Father not present 19.2 0.40 15.4 0.36 3.8* Mother manager, professional, para-professional 6.7 0.25 9.8 0.30 3.1* Mother not employed 48.1 0.50 55.3 0.50 7.2* Mother not present 8.7 0.28 5.0 0.22 3.7* Longest job ever held by 1984 Never held a job 11.5 0.32 11.6 0.32 0.1 < 1 year 55.8 0.49 40.1 0.49 15.7* 1 year 13.5 0.34 13.5 0.34 0.0 2 years 13.5 0.34 14.1 0.35 0.6 3 years or more 5.8 0.23 19.8 0.40 14* Average pre-programme unemployment 69 19.0 1.97 20.1 2.42 7.5* Ever employed in 1986 70 86.5 0.34 72.9 0.44 13.6* Ever government programme 1986 71 14.4 0.35 10.7 0.31 3.7* Number of cases 104 1179 NOTE: Column 5 shows the t statistic for hypothesis that difference of mean for SYETP and comparison is zero, where * indicates is significant at the 1 percent level of significance. s.d. SYETP versus comparison absolute difference in means 68 68 The statistic for any variable is the absolute value of the difference in means for SYETP and the control groups. 69 Proportion of 1984 reference period to 3 June spent unemployed. 70 Ever held a non-subsidised, non-government program job in the 1986 reference period, after the first 17 weeks. 71 Ever go on a government program, including SYETP, in the 1986 reference period.
115 4.2 Propensity score matching methods The propensity score matching methods, expounded in Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983), Dehijia and Wahba (1998), Heckman, Ichimura and Todd (1997), Heckman, Ichimura and Todd (1998) and Imbens (2000) have more recently been applied in the evaluation literature. Lechner (2000, 2001) extended the propensity score matching methods to the multi-treatment case. Using propensity score matching moves the emphasis away from specifying the selection bias towards more careful construction of the comparison group. It has been suggested that the key enhancement for evaluation allowed by this method is the comparison of comparable people (Heckman, Lalonde and Smith (1999): 2083). In order to do this, irrelevant comparison cases, which are not similar to the treated, are removed from the analysis. Matching methods find for each individual in the treated, at least one comparison group member with very similar pre-treatment characteristics. The differences in outcomes after the treatment are then attributed to the programme. Recalling the evaluation problem discussed earlier, matching is subject initially to the same difficulty of all nonexperimental methods where assignment to treatment is non-random. However Rubin (1974) showed that matching balances the distributions of all pre-treatment characteristics that influence assignment to the treatment, and so gives an unbiased estimate of treatment on the treated, as long as all relevant similar pre-treatment characteristics (X) are controlled for, and the Conditional Independence Assumption (CIA) is invoked (further explained below). Propensity score matching uses the propensity score to provide a single measure of the set of characteristics (X) that influence the probability of participating and employment. Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983) established that if matching on a set of observed characteristics is valid, then matching on the probability of selection into the programme conditional on these characteristics, the propensity score, is also valid. Whereas matching on each characteristic leads to problems with dimensions, the propensity score reduces the problem to a single dimension.
- Page 79 and 80: 63 to the end of the 1980’s. An o
- Page 81 and 82: 65 for teens overall had risen, emp
- Page 83 and 84: 67 for Australia using data from th
- Page 85 and 86: 69 training, can provide a form of
- Page 87 and 88: 71 employer survey estimates were t
- Page 89 and 90: 73 provisions for SYETP and extende
- Page 91 and 92: 75 withdrawals occurred at similar
- Page 93 and 94: 77 Table 2.17 State usage of progra
- Page 95 and 96: 79 2.3.1 Stretton (1982, 1984) 53 S
- Page 97 and 98: 81 Stretton attributed the success
- Page 99 and 100: 83 included in the employment model
- Page 101 and 102: 85 completers. Their argument was t
- Page 103 and 104: 87 was an issue for the data. Unlik
- Page 105 and 106: 89 Table 2.21 Richardson (1998) Est
- Page 107 and 108: 91 2.3.5 General discussion Some ge
- Page 109 and 110: 93 Controlling for differences in i
- Page 111 and 112: 95 taken by a previous researcher a
- Page 113 and 114: 97 If employability is assumed to b
- Page 115 and 116: 99 suitability of the underlying as
- Page 117 and 118: 101 Heckman, Lalonde and Smith (199
- Page 119 and 120: 103 effect on employment relative t
- Page 121 and 122: 105 Table 3.1, Part A Employment eq
- Page 123 and 124: 107 (-1.80) (-1.80) Tradesperson -0
- Page 125 and 126: 109 duration of Pre-June 1984 unemp
- Page 127 and 128: 111 4: Study 2 Propensity score mat
- Page 129: 113 Propensity score matching provi
- Page 133 and 134: 117 covariates that influence the a
- Page 135 and 136: 119 (7) E(Y c | D=1) = E P(X) {E[Y
- Page 137 and 138: 121 For CIA to be plausible, a ‘r
- Page 139 and 140: 123 employment and programme partic
- Page 141 and 142: Highest qualification in 1984 (1.56
- Page 143 and 144: 127 4.6 Distribution of the propens
- Page 145 and 146: 129 Figure 4.3 Histograms of estima
- Page 147 and 148: 131 Table 4.5 Summary statistics fo
- Page 149 and 150: 133 Table 4.5, that the variance of
- Page 151 and 152: 135 Table 4.6 Matching results, Sin
- Page 153 and 154: 137 Table 6.3 using Swedish data wi
- Page 155 and 156: 139 matching is the ability to weed
- Page 157 and 158: 141 Table 4.7 Matching results, All
- Page 159 and 160: 143 the unobserved component. If th
- Page 161 and 162: 145 5: Study 3 Attrition and non-re
- Page 163 and 164: 147 occur by design, because the mi
- Page 165 and 166: 149 (1990) extended and improved th
- Page 167 and 168: 151 (10) A* = δ 0 + δ 1 x +δ 2 z
- Page 169 and 170: 153 again from September to Novembe
- Page 171 and 172: 155 5.5.2 Univariate examination of
- Page 173 and 174: 157 lower, the job lengths are only
- Page 175 and 176: 159 Work limited by health 1984 0.1
- Page 177 and 178: 161 The characteristics of the SYET
- Page 179 and 180: 163 para-professional Mother not em
114<br />
Table 4.1 Difference between treatment group and comparison group<br />
SYETP<br />
mean<br />
s.d.<br />
Non- SYETP<br />
mean<br />
Female 43.3 0.50 41.0 0.49 2.3*<br />
Average age 1984 19.0 1.97 20.1 2.42 1.1*<br />
Aboriginal/Torres Strait Islander 1.0 0.10 3.1 0.17 2.1*<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r ethnic minority 7.7 0.27 7.9 0.27 0.2<br />
Married 1984 2.9 0.17 12.5 0.33 9.6*<br />
Spouse employed 1984 1.9 0.14 6.3 0.24 4.4*<br />
Children 1984 1.9 0.14 5.8 0.23 3.9*<br />
Highest qualification in 1984<br />
Degree/diploma 7.7 0.27 12.2 0.33 4.5*<br />
Apprenticeship 2.9 0.17 8.6 0.28 5.7*<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r post-school qualification 6.7 0.25 7.1 0.26 0.4<br />
Year 12 <strong>of</strong> school 23.1 0.42 13.9 0.35 9.2*<br />
Year 11 <strong>of</strong> school 17.3 0.38 13.6 0.34 3.7*<br />
Year 10 <strong>of</strong> school 31.7 0.47 31.5 0.46 0.2<br />
Year 9 <strong>of</strong> school 10.6 0.31 12.6 0.33 2.0*<br />
Parental background when resp. aged 14<br />
Fa<strong>the</strong>r postschool qualification 26.0 0.44 34.6 0.48 8.6*<br />
Mo<strong>the</strong>r postschool qualification 20.2 0.40 18.2 0.39 2.0*<br />
Fa<strong>the</strong>r manager, pr<strong>of</strong>essional, para-pr<strong>of</strong>essional 25.0 0.44 25.8 0.44 0.8<br />
Fa<strong>the</strong>r not employed 3.8 0.19 5.6 0.23 1.8*<br />
Fa<strong>the</strong>r not present 19.2 0.40 15.4 0.36 3.8*<br />
Mo<strong>the</strong>r manager, pr<strong>of</strong>essional, para-pr<strong>of</strong>essional 6.7 0.25 9.8 0.30 3.1*<br />
Mo<strong>the</strong>r not employed 48.1 0.50 55.3 0.50 7.2*<br />
Mo<strong>the</strong>r not present 8.7 0.28 5.0 0.22 3.7*<br />
Longest job ever held by 1984<br />
Never held a job 11.5 0.32 11.6 0.32 0.1<br />
< 1 year 55.8 0.49 40.1 0.49 15.7*<br />
1 year 13.5 0.34 13.5 0.34 0.0<br />
2 years 13.5 0.34 14.1 0.35 0.6<br />
3 years or more 5.8 0.23 19.8 0.40 14*<br />
Average pre-programme unemployment 69 19.0 1.97 20.1 2.42 7.5*<br />
Ever employed in 1986 70 86.5 0.34 72.9 0.44 13.6*<br />
Ever government programme 1986 71 14.4 0.35 10.7 0.31 3.7*<br />
Number <strong>of</strong> cases 104 1179<br />
NOTE: Column 5 shows <strong>the</strong> t statistic for hypo<strong>the</strong>sis that difference <strong>of</strong> mean for SYETP and comparison<br />
is zero, where * indicates is significant at <strong>the</strong> 1 percent level <strong>of</strong> significance.<br />
s.d.<br />
SYETP<br />
versus<br />
comparison<br />
absolute<br />
difference in<br />
means 68<br />
68 The statistic for any variable is <strong>the</strong> absolute value <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> difference in means for SYETP and <strong>the</strong> control<br />
groups.<br />
69 Proportion <strong>of</strong> 1984 reference period to 3 June spent unemployed.<br />
70 Ever held a non-subsidised, non-government program job in <strong>the</strong> 1986 reference period, after <strong>the</strong> first 17<br />
weeks.<br />
71 Ever go on a government program, including SYETP, in <strong>the</strong> 1986 reference period.