Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Table 5.2 Summary statistics for attrition effects in the final sample ................... 158 Table 5.3 Summary statistics of attrition effects, for comparison and treated SYETP ................................................................................................................................ 162 Table 5.4 Difference between treatment group and comparison group before and after sample reduction............................................................................................ 166 Table 5.5 Summary statistics for attrition effects by source of sample loss.......... 170 Table 5.6: Effect of selection/response weight on 1984 survey respondents ........ 175 Table 5.7 How the observations reduce to 1283 from those who respond to the 1986 survey..................................................................................................................... 177 Table 5.5a Summary statistics by source of sample loss due to analytical selection ................................................................................................................................ 181 Table 5.8 Probit of SYETP participation, showing sample reduction effects ....... 184 Table 5.9: Probit results used for construction of attrition weights....................... 194 Table 5.10: Performance of attrition weight as measured by unweighted and weighted profile ..................................................................................................... 198 Table 6.1, part A Employment equation from bivariate probit.............................. 201 Table 6.1, Part B Selection/participation equation of the bivariate probit............. 204 Table 6.2 Weighting protocol steps ....................................................................... 207 Table 6.3 Weighted probit used to estimate propensity score for propensity score matching................................................................................................................. 211 Table 6.5 Summary statistics for distribution of weighted propensity scores, comparison group and SYETP............................................................................... 215 Figure 6.6 Kernel density plot of attrition weighted propensity scores, before matching................................................................................................................. 216 Table 6.7 Matching results, single nearest neighbour with replacement, within caliper, weighting the propensity with combined weights for attrition, non-response and design .............................................................................................................. 217 Figure 6.8 Propensity Distribution after matching, 0.001 Caliper......................... 218 Table 6.9 Employment effects of Heckman versus PSM ...................................... 220 Table 7.1, Part A Employment equation from bivariate probit, showing effect of standard error estimate........................................................................................... 225 Table 7.1, Part B Selection/participation equation of the bivariate probit, showing effect of standard error estimate ............................................................................ 228 Table 7.2 summary of changes to exclusion restriction of Heckman specification235 Table 7.3 Weighted Probit used to estimate propensity score for propensity score matching, exclude CEP referrals............................................................................ 238 Table 7.4 Summary of distribution of propensity, exclude CEP referrals............. 241 Table 7.5 Matching results, Single nearest neighbour with replacement, within caliper, weighting the propensity with combined weights: vary specification...... 242 Table 7.6 Weighted Probit used to estimate propensity score for propensity score matching, new specification................................................................................... 249 Table 7.7 Summary of distribution of propensity, new specification.................... 251 Figure 7.8 Histograms of the propensity scores for the new specification............ 251 Figure 7.9 Kernel densities of the propensities estimated for new specification... 252 Table A2.0a Univariate probit for employment in 1986, as estimated in the bivariate probit replication of Richardson (1998)................................................................. 264 xii
Table A2.0b Univariate Probit of participation in SYETP, as estimated in the bivariate probit replication of Richardson (1998).................................................. 267 Table A2.1 Means and bias after matching, one to one nearest neighbour 0.001 and 0.005 propensity score radius ................................................................................ 270 Table A2.1 Continued Means and bias after matching, nearest neighbour one to one 0.01 and 0.05 propensity score radius.................................................................... 273 Table A2.2 Applying Different methods for the missing cases in the SYETP probit before sample reduction......................................................................................... 276 Table A2.3 Probit of SYETP participation, no missing dummies......................... 279 Table A2.4 Summary statistics for distribution of the weights constructed for attrition, non-response and survey design.............................................................. 282 Table A2.5a Univariate probit for employment in 1986, as estimated in the bivariate probit, weighted for attrition.................................................................................. 283 Table A2.5b Univariate probit of participation in SYETP, as estimated in the bivariate probit, weighted for attrition................................................................... 286 Table A2.6 Part A Employment equation from bivariate probit where age included in employment model, attrition weights ................................................................ 289 Table A2.6 Part B Selection/participation equation of the bivariate probit where age included in employment model, attrition weights.................................................. 291 Table A2.7 Part A Employment equation from bivariate probit where CEP referrals included in employment model, attrition weights.................................................. 293 Table A2.7 Part B Selection/participation equation of the bivariate probit where CEP referrals included in employment model, attrition weights........................... 295 Table A2.8 Part A Employment equation from bivariate probit where CEP referrals and age included in employment model, attrition weights .................................... 297 Table A2.8 Part B Selection/participation equation of the bivariate probit where CEP referrals and age included in employment model, attrition weights.............. 299 xiii
Page 1: i Evaluation of the Australian Wage
Page 5 and 6: v Declaration I hereby declare that
Page 7 and 8: in method and assumptions. The orth
Page 9 and 10: 3.3 Data and variables used for est
Page 11: List of Tables and Figures Figure 1
Page 15 and 16: xv Abstract The job subsidy Special
Page 17 and 18: 1 1: Wage subsidy theory and evalua
Page 19 and 20: 3 programs of providing benefits an
Page 21 and 22: 5 The empirical methods used for th
Page 23 and 24: 7 how the outcomes from these metho
Page 25 and 26: 9 employment effect could be mainly
Page 27 and 28: 11 Real Wage Employment Figure 1.1:
Page 29 and 30: 13 are two types of unemployment, s
Page 31 and 32: 15 Real wages are predetermined whe
Page 33 and 34: 17 Vella (1998), Heckman, Lalonde a
Page 35 and 36: 19 Each individual has two potentia
Page 37 and 38: 21 this case, if there was no data
Page 39 and 40: 23 correlation for the error of the
Page 41 and 42: 25 Table 1.3 collects together some
Page 43 and 44: 27 Table 1.3 Brief overview of rece
Page 45 and 46: 29 necessarily brief. Then, the evi
Page 47 and 48: 31 limited applications, such as fo
Page 49 and 50: 33 who participated. It was conclud
Page 51 and 52: 35 term unemployed for over 12 of t
Page 53 and 54: 37 importance of the subsidy second
Page 55 and 56: 39 differences in characteristics t
Page 57 and 58: 41 Matching methods are theoretical
Page 59 and 60: 43 2.2 SYETP implementation As SYET
Page 61 and 62: 45 In July1978, the subsidy was cal
Page 63 and 64:
47 In January 1979, variations were
Page 65 and 66:
49 benefits were paid at a slightly
Page 67 and 68:
51 2.2.3 SYETP operation Earlier re
Page 69 and 70:
53 ceiling constraints’ applied t
Page 71 and 72:
55 Award Conditions for employment
Page 73 and 74:
57 Harris (2001) claims that during
Page 75 and 76:
59 display boards listed details of
Page 77 and 78:
61 restriction was used. If there w
Page 79 and 80:
63 to the end of the 1980’s. An o
Page 81 and 82:
65 for teens overall had risen, emp
Page 83 and 84:
67 for Australia using data from th
Page 85 and 86:
69 training, can provide a form of
Page 87 and 88:
71 employer survey estimates were t
Page 89 and 90:
73 provisions for SYETP and extende
Page 91 and 92:
75 withdrawals occurred at similar
Page 93 and 94:
77 Table 2.17 State usage of progra
Page 95 and 96:
79 2.3.1 Stretton (1982, 1984) 53 S
Page 97 and 98:
81 Stretton attributed the success
Page 99 and 100:
83 included in the employment model
Page 101 and 102:
85 completers. Their argument was t
Page 103 and 104:
87 was an issue for the data. Unlik
Page 105 and 106:
89 Table 2.21 Richardson (1998) Est
Page 107 and 108:
91 2.3.5 General discussion Some ge
Page 109 and 110:
93 Controlling for differences in i
Page 111 and 112:
95 taken by a previous researcher a
Page 113 and 114:
97 If employability is assumed to b
Page 115 and 116:
99 suitability of the underlying as
Page 117 and 118:
101 Heckman, Lalonde and Smith (199
Page 119 and 120:
103 effect on employment relative t
Page 121 and 122:
105 Table 3.1, Part A Employment eq
Page 123 and 124:
107 (-1.80) (-1.80) Tradesperson -0
Page 125 and 126:
109 duration of Pre-June 1984 unemp
Page 127 and 128:
111 4: Study 2 Propensity score mat
Page 129 and 130:
113 Propensity score matching provi
Page 131 and 132:
115 4.2 Propensity score matching m
Page 133 and 134:
117 covariates that influence the a
Page 135 and 136:
119 (7) E(Y c | D=1) = E P(X) {E[Y
Page 137 and 138:
121 For CIA to be plausible, a ‘r
Page 139 and 140:
123 employment and programme partic
Page 141 and 142:
Highest qualification in 1984 (1.56
Page 143 and 144:
127 4.6 Distribution of the propens
Page 145 and 146:
129 Figure 4.3 Histograms of estima
Page 147 and 148:
131 Table 4.5 Summary statistics fo
Page 149 and 150:
133 Table 4.5, that the variance of
Page 151 and 152:
135 Table 4.6 Matching results, Sin
Page 153 and 154:
137 Table 6.3 using Swedish data wi
Page 155 and 156:
139 matching is the ability to weed
Page 157 and 158:
141 Table 4.7 Matching results, All
Page 159 and 160:
143 the unobserved component. If th
Page 161 and 162:
145 5: Study 3 Attrition and non-re
Page 163 and 164:
147 occur by design, because the mi
Page 165 and 166:
149 (1990) extended and improved th
Page 167 and 168:
151 (10) A* = δ 0 + δ 1 x +δ 2 z
Page 169 and 170:
153 again from September to Novembe
Page 171 and 172:
155 5.5.2 Univariate examination of
Page 173 and 174:
157 lower, the job lengths are only
Page 175 and 176:
159 Work limited by health 1984 0.1
Page 177 and 178:
161 The characteristics of the SYET
Page 179 and 180:
163 para-professional Mother not em
Page 181 and 182:
165 comparison group where the shar
Page 183 and 184:
167 5.5.4 Attrition: natural attrit
Page 185 and 186:
169 both sources that impose change
Page 187 and 188:
171 para-professional Father not em
Page 189 and 190:
173 work in later sections, this su
Page 191 and 192:
175 Table 5.6: Effect of selection/
Page 193 and 194:
177 appropriate to discard these fr
Page 195 and 196:
179 Australia/Tasmania. Amongst tho
Page 197 and 198:
181 Table 5.5a Summary statistics b
Page 199 and 200:
183 5.6.1.2 Effects of the non-resp
Page 201 and 202:
185 3 years + -0.35 -0.47 -0.34 -0.
Page 203 and 204:
187 5.7 Multivariate analysis of ef
Page 205 and 206:
189 proportion of time spent unempl
Page 207 and 208:
191 post-school qualification, and
Page 209 and 210:
193 Generally, those variables foun
Page 211 and 212:
195 longj0 Longest job by 1984 < 1
Page 213 and 214:
197 adopted in order to maintain co
Page 215 and 216:
199 6: Study 4 Weighting to counter
Page 217 and 218:
201 Table 6.1, part A Employment eq
Page 219 and 220:
203 Methodist 0.133 0.261 (0.77) (1
Page 221 and 222:
205 CEP referrals 1984 0.143* 0.128
Page 223 and 224:
207 6.2 Results of weighting the PS
Page 225 and 226:
209 The distribution of the propens
Page 227 and 228:
211 Table 6.3 Weighted probit used
Page 229 and 230:
213 (0.76) Tradesperson mtrad 0.20
Page 231 and 232:
215 Table 6.5 Summary statistics fo
Page 233 and 234:
217 Table 6.7 Matching results, sin
Page 235 and 236:
219 6.3 Discussion The comparison o
Page 237 and 238:
221 the selection into SYETP and th
Page 239 and 240:
223 Heteroskedasticity is a violati
Page 241 and 242:
225 Table 7.1, Part A Employment eq
Page 243 and 244:
227 (1.26) (1.28) (1.16) Mothers oc
Page 245 and 246:
229 Other Post-School qualification
Page 247 and 248:
231 7.1.2 Exclusion restriction in
Page 249 and 250:
233 Finally, the third panel of new
Page 251 and 252:
235 Table 7.2 summary of changes to
Page 253 and 254:
237 schooling that was statisticall
Page 255 and 256:
239 (0.25) (0.21) 3 years + -0.50 -
Page 257 and 258:
241 Table 7.4 Summary of distributi
Page 259 and 260:
243 7.2.2 Propensity score matching
Page 261 and 262:
245 original model, but with the pe
Page 263 and 264:
247 maintained, then the Heckman bi
Page 265 and 266:
249 Table 7.6 Weighted Probit used
Page 267 and 268:
251 Table 7.7 Summary of distributi
Page 269 and 270:
253 8: Summary and Conclusions The
Page 271 and 272:
255 over which it ran, the review m
Page 273 and 274:
257 the Heckman and PSM methods wer
Page 275 and 276:
259 posited that that such sensitiv
Page 277 and 278:
261 Description Derivation and deta
Page 279 and 280:
Appendix 2 Tables 263
Page 281 and 282:
2 years 0.28 0.07 (1.70) (1.70) 3 y
Page 283 and 284:
267 Table A2.0b Univariate Probit o
Page 285 and 286:
269 Religion brought up in (1.52) (
Page 287 and 288:
271 hq9_84 Year 9 of school or less
Page 289 and 290:
273 Table A2.1 Continued Means and
Page 291 and 292:
275 mtrad Tradesperson 0.04 0.04 0.
Page 293 and 294:
277 Year 9 of school or less -0.19
Page 295 and 296:
279 Table A2.3 Probit of SYETP part
Page 297 and 298:
281 (0.22) (0.44) (0.67) (0.89) Tra
Page 299 and 300:
283 Table A2.5a Univariate probit f
Page 301 and 302:
285 Manager/professional/para-profe
Page 303 and 304:
3 years + -0.04 (2.13)* CEP referra
Page 305 and 306:
289 Table A2.6 Part A Employment eq
Page 307 and 308:
291 Table A2.6 Part B Selection/par
Page 309 and 310:
Page 311 and 312:
Page 313 and 314:
Page 315 and 316:
Page 317 and 318:
301
Page 319 and 320:
BLMR Bureau of Labour Market Resear
Page 321 and 322:
Fay, R.G. (1996) "Enhancing the eff
Page 323 and 324:
Heckman J.J. and Smith, J. A. (1998
Page 325 and 326:
Lewis, H.G. (1963) "Unionism and re
Page 327 and 328:
Quandt, R. (1972) "A new approach t
Page 329 and 330:
Stromback, M. and Dockery, A. (2000
show all

Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?