Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...
Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ... Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...
Table 5.2 Summary statistics for attrition effects in the final sample ................... 158 Table 5.3 Summary statistics of attrition effects, for comparison and treated SYETP ................................................................................................................................ 162 Table 5.4 Difference between treatment group and comparison group before and after sample reduction............................................................................................ 166 Table 5.5 Summary statistics for attrition effects by source of sample loss.......... 170 Table 5.6: Effect of selection/response weight on 1984 survey respondents ........ 175 Table 5.7 How the observations reduce to 1283 from those who respond to the 1986 survey..................................................................................................................... 177 Table 5.5a Summary statistics by source of sample loss due to analytical selection ................................................................................................................................ 181 Table 5.8 Probit of SYETP participation, showing sample reduction effects ....... 184 Table 5.9: Probit results used for construction of attrition weights....................... 194 Table 5.10: Performance of attrition weight as measured by unweighted and weighted profile ..................................................................................................... 198 Table 6.1, part A Employment equation from bivariate probit.............................. 201 Table 6.1, Part B Selection/participation equation of the bivariate probit............. 204 Table 6.2 Weighting protocol steps ....................................................................... 207 Table 6.3 Weighted probit used to estimate propensity score for propensity score matching................................................................................................................. 211 Table 6.5 Summary statistics for distribution of weighted propensity scores, comparison group and SYETP............................................................................... 215 Figure 6.6 Kernel density plot of attrition weighted propensity scores, before matching................................................................................................................. 216 Table 6.7 Matching results, single nearest neighbour with replacement, within caliper, weighting the propensity with combined weights for attrition, non-response and design .............................................................................................................. 217 Figure 6.8 Propensity Distribution after matching, 0.001 Caliper......................... 218 Table 6.9 Employment effects of Heckman versus PSM ...................................... 220 Table 7.1, Part A Employment equation from bivariate probit, showing effect of standard error estimate........................................................................................... 225 Table 7.1, Part B Selection/participation equation of the bivariate probit, showing effect of standard error estimate ............................................................................ 228 Table 7.2 summary of changes to exclusion restriction of Heckman specification235 Table 7.3 Weighted Probit used to estimate propensity score for propensity score matching, exclude CEP referrals............................................................................ 238 Table 7.4 Summary of distribution of propensity, exclude CEP referrals............. 241 Table 7.5 Matching results, Single nearest neighbour with replacement, within caliper, weighting the propensity with combined weights: vary specification...... 242 Table 7.6 Weighted Probit used to estimate propensity score for propensity score matching, new specification................................................................................... 249 Table 7.7 Summary of distribution of propensity, new specification.................... 251 Figure 7.8 Histograms of the propensity scores for the new specification............ 251 Figure 7.9 Kernel densities of the propensities estimated for new specification... 252 Table A2.0a Univariate probit for employment in 1986, as estimated in the bivariate probit replication of Richardson (1998)................................................................. 264 xii
Table A2.0b Univariate Probit of participation in SYETP, as estimated in the bivariate probit replication of Richardson (1998).................................................. 267 Table A2.1 Means and bias after matching, one to one nearest neighbour 0.001 and 0.005 propensity score radius ................................................................................ 270 Table A2.1 Continued Means and bias after matching, nearest neighbour one to one 0.01 and 0.05 propensity score radius.................................................................... 273 Table A2.2 Applying Different methods for the missing cases in the SYETP probit before sample reduction......................................................................................... 276 Table A2.3 Probit of SYETP participation, no missing dummies......................... 279 Table A2.4 Summary statistics for distribution of the weights constructed for attrition, non-response and survey design.............................................................. 282 Table A2.5a Univariate probit for employment in 1986, as estimated in the bivariate probit, weighted for attrition.................................................................................. 283 Table A2.5b Univariate probit of participation in SYETP, as estimated in the bivariate probit, weighted for attrition................................................................... 286 Table A2.6 Part A Employment equation from bivariate probit where age included in employment model, attrition weights ................................................................ 289 Table A2.6 Part B Selection/participation equation of the bivariate probit where age included in employment model, attrition weights.................................................. 291 Table A2.7 Part A Employment equation from bivariate probit where CEP referrals included in employment model, attrition weights.................................................. 293 Table A2.7 Part B Selection/participation equation of the bivariate probit where CEP referrals included in employment model, attrition weights........................... 295 Table A2.8 Part A Employment equation from bivariate probit where CEP referrals and age included in employment model, attrition weights .................................... 297 Table A2.8 Part B Selection/participation equation of the bivariate probit where CEP referrals and age included in employment model, attrition weights.............. 299 xiii
- Page 1: i Evaluation of the Australian Wage
- Page 5 and 6: v Declaration I hereby declare that
- Page 7 and 8: in method and assumptions. The orth
- Page 9 and 10: 3.3 Data and variables used for est
- Page 11: List of Tables and Figures Figure 1
- Page 15 and 16: xv Abstract The job subsidy Special
- Page 17 and 18: 1 1: Wage subsidy theory and evalua
- Page 19 and 20: 3 programs of providing benefits an
- Page 21 and 22: 5 The empirical methods used for th
- Page 23 and 24: 7 how the outcomes from these metho
- Page 25 and 26: 9 employment effect could be mainly
- Page 27 and 28: 11 Real Wage Employment Figure 1.1:
- Page 29 and 30: 13 are two types of unemployment, s
- Page 31 and 32: 15 Real wages are predetermined whe
- Page 33 and 34: 17 Vella (1998), Heckman, Lalonde a
- Page 35 and 36: 19 Each individual has two potentia
- Page 37 and 38: 21 this case, if there was no data
- Page 39 and 40: 23 correlation for the error of the
- Page 41 and 42: 25 Table 1.3 collects together some
- Page 43 and 44: 27 Table 1.3 Brief overview of rece
- Page 45 and 46: 29 necessarily brief. Then, the evi
- Page 47 and 48: 31 limited applications, such as fo
- Page 49 and 50: 33 who participated. It was conclud
- Page 51 and 52: 35 term unemployed for over 12 of t
- Page 53 and 54: 37 importance of the subsidy second
- Page 55 and 56: 39 differences in characteristics t
- Page 57 and 58: 41 Matching methods are theoretical
- Page 59 and 60: 43 2.2 SYETP implementation As SYET
- Page 61 and 62: 45 In July1978, the subsidy was cal
Table 5.2 Summary statistics for attrition effects in <strong>the</strong> final sample ................... 158<br />
Table 5.3 Summary statistics <strong>of</strong> attrition effects, for comparison and treated SYETP<br />
................................................................................................................................ 162<br />
Table 5.4 Difference between treatment group and comparison group before and<br />
after sample reduction............................................................................................ 166<br />
Table 5.5 Summary statistics for attrition effects by source <strong>of</strong> sample loss.......... 170<br />
Table 5.6: Effect <strong>of</strong> selection/response weight on 1984 survey respondents ........ 175<br />
Table 5.7 How <strong>the</strong> observations reduce to 1283 from those who respond to <strong>the</strong> 1986<br />
survey..................................................................................................................... 177<br />
Table 5.5a Summary statistics by source <strong>of</strong> sample loss due to analytical selection<br />
................................................................................................................................ 181<br />
Table 5.8 Probit <strong>of</strong> SYETP participation, showing sample reduction effects ....... 184<br />
Table 5.9: Probit results used for construction <strong>of</strong> attrition weights....................... 194<br />
Table 5.10: Performance <strong>of</strong> attrition weight as measured by unweighted and<br />
weighted pr<strong>of</strong>ile ..................................................................................................... 198<br />
Table 6.1, part A Employment equation from bivariate probit.............................. 201<br />
Table 6.1, Part B Selection/participation equation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> bivariate probit............. 204<br />
Table 6.2 Weighting protocol steps ....................................................................... 207<br />
Table 6.3 Weighted probit used to estimate propensity score for propensity score<br />
matching................................................................................................................. 211<br />
Table 6.5 Summary statistics for distribution <strong>of</strong> weighted propensity scores,<br />
comparison group and SYETP............................................................................... 215<br />
Figure 6.6 Kernel density plot <strong>of</strong> attrition weighted propensity scores, before<br />
matching................................................................................................................. 216<br />
Table 6.7 Matching results, single nearest neighbour with replacement, within<br />
caliper, weighting <strong>the</strong> propensity with combined weights for attrition, non-response<br />
and design .............................................................................................................. 217<br />
Figure 6.8 Propensity Distribution after matching, 0.001 Caliper......................... 218<br />
Table 6.9 Employment effects <strong>of</strong> Heckman versus PSM ...................................... 220<br />
Table 7.1, Part A Employment equation from bivariate probit, showing effect <strong>of</strong><br />
standard error estimate........................................................................................... 225<br />
Table 7.1, Part B Selection/participation equation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> bivariate probit, showing<br />
effect <strong>of</strong> standard error estimate ............................................................................ 228<br />
Table 7.2 summary <strong>of</strong> changes to exclusion restriction <strong>of</strong> Heckman specification235<br />
Table 7.3 Weighted Probit used to estimate propensity score for propensity score<br />
matching, exclude CEP referrals............................................................................ 238<br />
Table 7.4 Summary <strong>of</strong> distribution <strong>of</strong> propensity, exclude CEP referrals............. 241<br />
Table 7.5 Matching results, Single nearest neighbour with replacement, within<br />
caliper, weighting <strong>the</strong> propensity with combined weights: vary specification...... 242<br />
Table 7.6 Weighted Probit used to estimate propensity score for propensity score<br />
matching, new specification................................................................................... 249<br />
Table 7.7 Summary <strong>of</strong> distribution <strong>of</strong> propensity, new specification.................... 251<br />
Figure 7.8 Histograms <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> propensity scores for <strong>the</strong> new specification............ 251<br />
Figure 7.9 Kernel densities <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> propensities estimated for new specification... 252<br />
Table A2.0a Univariate probit for employment in 1986, as estimated in <strong>the</strong> bivariate<br />
probit replication <strong>of</strong> Richardson (1998)................................................................. 264<br />
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