Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

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was an issue for the data. Unlike the Baker (1984) analysis, survey non-response was
ignored by Rao and Jones (1986).
2.3.4 Richardson (1998)
Richardson (1998) used panel data spanning 4 years of repeat surveys of the Australian
Longitudinal Survey (ALS). The analysis is based upon the ALS list sample, which was a
sample selected from the CES records for young unemployed aged 15-24. The ALS list
sample was a nationally representative sample of Australian youths aged 15-24 who had
been registered as unemployed with the Commonwealth Employment Service for at least
3 months in June 1984. They were interviewed in September-October each year from
1984-1987. 58 Using the labour market history, those who entered SYETP job placements
during 1984 until the 1985 interview defined the SYETP treatment group and comparison
group reference period. The subsequent survey data on labour market history until the
1987 interview date was used to examine post-programme employment outcomes.
An analysis of attrition was made by examination of the means. It was concluded that the
characteristics were virtually identical and so attrition bias was treated as a minor
problem (Richardson (1998): 5). It was however noted that those lost to attrition were
more likely to have less than year 10 education, more likely to have held a job for at least
1 year and less likely to have never held a job. Accordingly, no treatment of non-response
was made. It was noted that the treated SYETP had different characteristics than the
comparison group of non-participants. It was observed that in the raw data, employment
in 1986 was 14 percentage points higher for those who had participated in SYETP than
the comparison group, and in 1987 it was 5 per cent higher than the comparison group.
First, separate probit models of employment and of participation were estimated. Then
Richardson used a Heckman bivariate probit which controlled for programme selection
by modelling both the participation and post-programme employment. To identify the
model, a variable showing CES referrals to another programme, and age of the
58 Further details of the data are in the later chapter dealing with the replication study.