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ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 76 European agricultural land use. I: Estimating changes in crop productivity. For submission to Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. Submitted. Rounsevell, M.D.A. Ewert, F. Reginster, I., Leemans, R. and Carter, T. 2004. Future scenarios of European agricultural land use. II: estimating changes in land use and regional allocation. For submission to Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. Submitted. Rounsevell et al. 2004. Synthesis paper: Land use change scenarios for the future of Europe, Part I: methodology. In preparation. Schröter D. and W. Cramer 2004. Environmental impacts of global change in Europe. A contribution to the British Ecological Society/European Ecological Federation Annual Symposium Book Ecology without frontiers: Environmental challenges across Europe, edited by James Bullock and Alan Watts. Submitted. Smith, Jo, Pete Smith, Martin Wattenbach, Jeannette Meyer, Marcus Lindner, Sönke Zaehle, Roland Hiederer, Bob Jones, Luca Montanarella, Tim Mitchell, Mike Hulme, Mark Rounsevell and Isabelle Reginster, 2004. Soil carbon fluxes in Europe under climate and land-use change 2000-2100. To be submitted to Global Change Biology or Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2004. In preparation. Smith, Jo, Pete Smith, Martin Wattenbach, Sönke Zaehle, Roland Hiederer, Bob Jones, Luca Montanarella, Tim Mitchell, Mike Hulme, 2004. Cropland CO2 fluxes during the 20th Century. To be submitted to Global Change Biology or Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2004. In preparation. Smith, P., Jo Smith, Martin Wattenbach, Jeannette Meyer, Marcus Lindner, Sönke Zaehle, Roland Hiederer, Bob Jones, Luca Montanarella, Tim Mitchell, Mike Hulme, Mark Rounsevell and Isabelle Reginster, 2004. Projected changes in mineral soil carbon in European forests, 1990-2100. To be submitted to the Canadian Journal of Soil Science, 2004. In preparation. Thuiller, W., Araújo, M. B., Pearson, R.G., Whittaker, R.J., Brotons, L. & Lavorel, S. Extinction risk from climate change: the need to account for modelling uncertainty. Submitted. Thuiller, W., Howell, C. A., Midgley, G. F. & Rouget, M. 2004. Evaluating species distribution models: methodologies and conservation implications of prevalence and probability thresholds. Submitted. Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S. & Araújo, M.B. 2004. Niche properties as predictors of species sensitivity to climate change. Submitted. Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S. & Sykes, M. Predicting future species distributions using static equilibrium models: an appraisal. In preparation. Tuck, Gill, Margaret J. Glendining, Pete Smith and Jo House 2004. Effect of climate change on the potential distribution of bioenergy crops in Europe. To be submitted to Global Change Biology, 2004. In preparation. Zaehle, S. 2004. Effect of height incompletely compensated by xylem tapering. Functional Ecology. Submitted. Zaehle, S. and the ATEAM carbon sector group 2004. Europe’s terrestrial carbon balance: Net Carbon uptake may decline after 2050. In preparation. Zaehle, S., Sitch, S., Prentice, C., Hickler T. 2004 Hydraulic limitation as determinant of age related decline in forest growth: results of a study with the LPJ-model. In preparation. Zaehle, S., Sitch, S., Smith, B., Hattermann, F. 2004. Effects of parameter uncertainties on the modeling of terrestrial biosphere dynamics. In preparation. Zierl B, Bugmann H. 2004. Global Change Impact on hydrological processes in Alpine catchments. Water Resources Research. Submitted. Zierl B, Bugmann H, Tague, C. 2004. Evaluation of water and carbon fluxes in the ecohydrological
ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 77 model RHESSys. Ecosystems. Submitted. Zierl B, Bugmann H. 2004. On the Simulation of Global Change Impact on Carbon Cycling in the European Alps. in preparation. 2.1.4 2003 peer-reviewed journal articles Araújo, M.B. 2003. The coincidence of people and biodiversity in Europe. Global Ecology and Biogeography12: 5-12. Araújo, M.B., Densham, P.J. & Humphries, C.J. 2003. Predicting species diversity with environmental diversity: the quest for evidence. Ecography 26: 380-384. Capistrano, D., S. R. Carpenter, K. Chopra, A. Cropper, G. Daily, P. Dasgupta, R. Hassan, R. Leemans, R. May, H. Mooney, P. Pingali, W. V. Reid, C. Samper, B. Scholes, R. Watson, and Z. Shidong. 2003. Introduction and conceptual framework. In Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystems and human well-being: a framework for assessment. Island Press, Washington DC, USA, pp. 26- 48. Leemans, R. 2003. Anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes. In P. Kabat, M. Claussen, P. A. Dirmeyer, J. H. C. Gash, L. B. de Guenni, M. Meybeck, R. A. Pielke, Sr., C. J. Vörösmarty, R. W. A. Hutjes, and S. Lütkemeier, (eds.) Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate. A new perspective on an interactive system. Springer Verlag, Berlin, Germany, pp. 502-509. Leemans, R. 2003. Klimaatmodellen en wat ze ons leren. De Levende Natuur 104:119-121. Leemans, R., B. J. Eickhout, B. Strengers, A. F. Bouwman, and M. Schaeffer. 2002. The consequences for the terrestrial carbon cycle of uncertainties in land use, climate and vegetation responses in the IPCC SRES scenarios. Science in China, Series C. 45:126-136. Leemans, R., E. Lambin, A. McCalla, G. Nelson, P. Pingali, H. Simons, R. Watson, and M. Zurek. 2003. Drivers of change in ecosystems and their services. In Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystems and human well-being: a framework for assessment. Island Press, Washington DC, USA, pp. 245. Lindner M., Lasch P., Sabaté S., Gracia C., Fürstenau C., Badeck F. W. and Suckow F. 2003. Assessing the potential of forest management strategies in European forests for Carbon mitigation. Annual meeting of the Society for Experimental Biology, April 2003, Southampton, UK in Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology, Vol 134A, number 3. Liski, J., Nissinen, A., Erhard, M., Taskinen, O. 2003. Climatic effects on litter decomposition from arctic tundra to tropical rainforest. Global Change Biology 9 (4): 575-584. Lobo, J.M. & Araújo, M.B. 2003. La aplicación de datos faunísticos para el diseño de redes de reservas: el caso de los anfibios y reptiles de la Península Ibérica. Graellsia 59: 399-408. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2003. Ecosystems and human well-being: a framework for assessment. Island Press, Washington DC, USA, 245 pp. Pla E., Rodà F., Gracia C. A. 2003. Modelización de la dinámica de combustibles en ecosistemas arbustivos mediterráneos. En: Proceedings of the VII Congreso Nacional de la Asociación Española de Ecología Terrestre; España ante los compromisos del Protocolo de Kyoto: Sistemas Naturales y Cambio Climático. Polsky C., D. Schröter, A. Patt, S. Gaffin, M. L. Martello, R. Neff, A. Pulsipher, and H. Selin. 2003. Assessing Vulnerabilities to the Effects of Global Change: An Eight-Step Approach. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Working Paper 2003-05, Environment and Natural Resources Program, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts. pp. 17. Reginster, I. and Rounsevell, M.D.A. 2003. Land use change scenarios for Europe. LUCC Newsletter, 9, 10-11
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