ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 60 contacts and our results were disseminated through national (e.g. Süddeutsche Zeitung) and local (e.g. Berliner Zeitung) newspapers as well as targeted magazines (e.g. Trail Magazine). ATEAM has contributed to an international summer school on Vulnerability Assessment. Ca. 30 graduate and post-graduate students have discussed and used ATEAM concepts and results to learn about vulnerability assessment and to develop their own approaches and tools. ATEAMers contribute to the first reports of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (see Annex 2) and to a book project of the Environmental Vulnerability Assessment group at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK, see Annex 2). The ATEAM websites were built and maintained and will be hosted at PIK until at least the end of 2004. 6.5 Main literature produced Further publications are listed in Annex 2. Araújo, M.B. 2004. Matching species with reserves: uncertainties from using data at different resolutions. Biological Conservation 118: 533-538. Araújo, M.B., Densham, P.J. & Williams, P.H. 2004. Representing species in reserves from patterns of assemblage diversity. Journal of Biogeography 31: 1037-1050. Araújo, M.B., Thuiller, W., Williams, P.H. & Reginster, I. 2004. Downscaling European species atlas distributions to a finer resolution: implications for conservation planning. Global Ecology and Biogeography. In press. Araújo, M. B., M. Cabeza, .W Thuiller, L. Hannah and P. H. Williams. 2004. Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods. Global Change Biology, in press. Badeck, Franz-W., A. Bondeau, K. Böttcher, D. Doktor, W. Lucht, J. Schaber, S. Sitch. 2004. Responses of spring phenology to climate change. New Phytologist. In press. Bakker, M., Govers, G., Kosmas, C. van Oost, K. and Rounsevell, M.D.A. 2004 in press. ‘Erosion as a driver of land use change: a case study on Lesvos, Greece’. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 00, 000-000. Bakker, M., Govers, G., Rounsevell, M.D.A. 2004. ‘The crop productivity-erosion relationship: an analysis based on experimental work’. Catena, 57, 55-76. Brotons, L., Thuiller, W., Araújo, M.B. & Hirzel, A.H. 2004. Presence-absence versus presence-only habitat suitability models: the role of species ecology and prevalence. Ecography 27: 437-448. Cabeza, M., Araújo, M.B., Wilson, R.J., Thomas, C.D., Cowley, M.J.R. & Moilanen, A. 2004. Combining probabilities of occurrence with spatial reserve design. Journal of Applied Ecology 41: 252-262. Ewert F., Rounsevell, M.D.A. Reginster, I., Metzger, M., Leemans, R. 2004 in press. Technology development and climate change as drivers of future agricultural land use. In: (Floor Brouwer and Bruce McCarl, eds.) Rural lands, agriculture and climate beyond 2015: Usage and management responses. Kluwer Academic Publishers. Ewert, F. 2004. Modelling plant responses to elevated CO2: how important is leaf area index? Invited paper, Annals of Botany (in press). Gerten, D., Haberlandt, U., Cramer, W. & Erhard, M. 2004 Terrestrial Carbon and Water Fluxes. In: Hantel, M. (ed.) Climatology, Landolt-Börnstein. Springer Verlag. In press. Grothmann, T., and F. i. D. Reusswig. 2004. (in press) People at Risk of Flooding: Why some residents take precautionary action while others do not. Natural Hazards. Kankaanpää, S. and Carter, T.R. 2004a. An overview of forest policies affecting land use in Europe. The Finnish Environment, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki (in press). Kankaanpää, S. and Carter, T.R. 2004b. Construction of European forest land use scenarios for the 21st century. The Finnish Environment, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki (in press). Ladley, R., Jepson, P., Araújo, M.B. & Whittaker, R.J. 2004. Dangers of crying wolf over risk of extinctions. Nature 428: 799. Leemans, R. 2004. Why regional and spatial specificity is needed in environmental assessments? in G. Knight and J. Jäger, editors. Integrated Regional Assessment. Springer, Berlin. (in press) Leemans, R., and B. Eickhout. 2004. Another reason for concern: regional and global impacts on ecosystems for different levels of climate change. Global Environmental Change (in press).
ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 61 Schröter, D. and S. Dekker 2004. Stability and interaction strength within soil food webs of a European forest transect: the impact of N deposition. A contribution to the book series prepared by the decadal Food Web Symposium: Dynamic Food Webs: Multispecies assemblages, ecosystem development, and environmental change, edited by Peter C. De Ruiter and Volkmar Wolters, John Moore, Academic Press. Accepted for publication. Schröter D., L. Brussaard, G. De Deyn, K. Poveda, V.K. Brown, M.P. Berg, D.A. Wardle, J. Moore, D.H. Wall 2004.Trophic interactions in a changing world: modelling aboveground-belowground interactions. Special issue on Above- and Belowground Interactions, edited by W. Van Der Putten, P.C. De Ruiter, M. Bezemer and J. Harvey. Basic and Applied Ecology, 5 (6), 515-528. Schröter, D., C. Polsky, and A. G. Patt. 2004. Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight step approach. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. In press. Segurado, P. & Araújo, M.B. 2004. An evaluation of methods for modelling species distributions. Journal of Biogeography. In press. Strengers, B., R. Leemans, B. J. Eickhout, H. J. M. de Vries, and A. F. Bouwman. 2004. The land use projections in the IPCC SRES scenarios as simulated by the IMAGE 2.2 model. GeoJournal (in press). Taylor, A.R., D. Schröter, A. Pflug and V. Wolters. 2004. Responses of different decomposer communities to the manipulation of moisture availability: potential effects of changing precipitation patterns. Global Change Biology, 10, 1– 12 doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00801.x Thonicke and Cramer 2004. Long-term trends in vegetation dynamics and forest fire in Brandenburg (Germany) under a changing climate. Natural Hazards. In press. Thuiller, W. 2004. Patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate change. Global Change Biology in press. Thuiller, W., L. Brotons, M. B. Araújo, and S. Lavorel. 2004. Effects of restricting environmental range of data to project current and future species distributions. Ecography 27:165-172. Thuiller, W., M. B. Araújo, and S. Lavorel. 2004. Do we need land-cover data to model species distributions in Europe? Journal of Biogeography 31: 353-361. Thuiller, W., M. B. Araújo, R. G. Pearson, R. J. Whittaker, L. Brotons, and S. Lavorel. 2004. Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk. Nature 430: 34-35. Thuiller, W., S. Lavorel, G. F. Midgley, S. Lavergne, and A. G. Rebelo. 2004. Relating plant traits and species distributions along bioclimatic gradients for 88 Leucadendron species in the Cape Floristic Region. Ecology 85:1688-1699. Williams, P.H., Hannah, L., Andelman, S., Midgley, G., Araújo, M.B., Hughes, G., Manne, L.L., Martinez-Meyer, E. & Pearson, R. 2004. Planning for climate change: identifying minimum dispersal corridors for the Cape Proteaceae. Conservation Biology. In press. 6.6 References cited Alcamo J., Mayerhofer P., Guardans R., van Harmelen T., van Minnen J., Onigkeit J., Posch M., de Vries B. 2002. An integrated assessment of regional air pollution and climate change in Europe: Findings of the AIR-CLIM Project. Environmental Science & Policy 5: 257-272. Araújo, M. B., M. Cabeza, .W Thuiller, L. Hannah and P. H. Williams. 2004. Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods. Global Change Biology, in press. Araújo, M. B., P. H. Williams, and R. Fuller. 2002. Dynamics of extinction and the selection of nature reserves. Proceedings of the Royal Society London B 269:1971-1980. Arnell, N. W. 1999. A simple water balance model for the simulation of streamflow over a large geographic domain. Journal of Hydrology 217, 314-335. Arnell, N.W. (2003) Effects of IPCC SRES emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 7, 619-641. Band, L. E., P. Patterson, R. Nemani, S.W. Running, 1993. Ecosystem processes at the watershed scale: incorporating hillslope hydrology. Forest and Agric. Meteorology 63:93-126. BFS (Swiss Federal Statistical Office) 2002: CORINE Data Switzerland Coleman, K., and D. Jenkinson. 1996. RothC-26.3- A Model for the turnover of carbon in soil. In: Evaluation of Soil Organic Matter Models Using Existing, Long-Term Datasets. Pages 237-246 in D. P. P. S. J. Smith, editor. NATO ASI Series I, Vol.38. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg.
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