ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 56 socio-economic context in which they might operate in the future. However, their anticipated future ability to adapt to change was a matter of personal perception. In a flood prone area in Germany it has recently been shown that “perceived adaptive capacity” is a major determinant of whether people will take adaptation measures or not (Grothmann and Reusswig 2004). It seems that more place based studies could better take account of the individual nature of vulnerability. The current framework was developed with the tools at hand and a wish list of analyses in mind. Strong points in the framework are the multiple scenarios as a measure of variability and uncertainty, the multiple stressors (climate, land use, and nitrogen deposition change), the stakeholder involvement, and the inclusion of a measure of adaptive capacity. The approach, as presented here, will facilitate the analysis of the ecosystem services estimated by ecosystem models. As the approach is applied, more advanced methods of combining changes potential impact (∆PI) and adaptive capacity (AC) may be developed, i.e. through fuzzy logic or qualitative differential equations (cf. Petschel-Held et al. 1999). However, prerequisite for this is a further understanding how ∆PI and AC interact and influence vulnerability, which may only be feasible when analysing specific cases. Ideally the AC index will eventually be replaced by sector specific projections of adaptive capacity. Some qualitative information, or knowledge shared during stakeholder dialogues does not enter the approach in a formal way. Therefore it is imperative to discuss the results with stakeholders, experts and scientists as part of the analysis. To facilitate this discussion, and the analyses of underlying interactions and causes of anticipated vulnerability, the ca. 3200 maps and charts produced in ATEAM will be disseminated in form of a digital atlas, the interactive ATEAM mapping tool. The atlas contains maps of vulnerability, as well as the underlying indicators, such as exposure, potential impact and adaptive capacity. In this tool, sectors, ecosystem services, scenarios and time slices can be selected and maps and summarising charts will be given on demand. Customised comparison of different scenarios, sectors, services and/or time slices is possible. Results can also be summarised by country or environmental zone. Each map and chart is accompanied by careful documentation of the underlying assumptions and an outline of the selected future scenario. A brief summary of each result shown is provided to prevent misunderstandings. This digital atlas is currently finalised and will be released soon, a demo version has already been tested at the last big stakeholder dialogue workshop. Figure 46 illustrates the welcoming screen – the preliminary nature of this version is indicated by the typo in the on-screen illustration of “Biodiversity”.
ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 57 6.3 Conclusions including socio-economic relevance, strategic aspects and policy implications • Vulnerable region: In comparison between regions, the Mediterranean seems most vulnerable within Europe. Multiple potential impacts on multiple sectors were projected. These include water shortages especially in the summer months when demand peaks due to tourism, increased fire risk in the forestry sector, losses in the carbon storage potential, northward shifts in the distribution of tree species like maritime pine and cork oak, and losses of agricultural potential due to drought. These potential impacts combine with low adaptive capacity (based on a socio-economic regional scale generic index). • European agricultural sector: Land use change projections based on socio-economic and climatic changes project an overall decline in arable land (cropland, grassland) in Europe. This results in “surplus land”. It is unclear what could happen to these areas of surplus land, although it seems that continued urban expansion, recreational areas and forest land use would all be likely to take up at least some of the surplus. This assumes, however, that the pressures toward declining agricultural areas are counterbalanced by policy mechanisms that seek to limit crop productivity. This could include measures to promote (a) extensification 37 or organic production (particularly consistent in the environmental scenarios), (b) the substitution of food production by energy production and the planting of trees, or an acceptance of overproduction (as with the current EU’s CAP 38 ). European land demand for biomass energy crops may go up. When biomass energy products are used for energy production instead of fossil fuels, less carbon dioxide per unit energy produced is released. To make use of this climate protection potential, shifts in areas suitable for biomass energy crops related to climate change should be taken into account. The suitable area for some crops expands. However, some current agricultural areas become too hot and too dry to support agriculture for any crop type. Furthermore a climate driven decline in soil fertility is expected (indicated by soil organic carbon losses) in some areas. This negative trend is only partly counteracted by land use changes and stimulated plant growth and calls for increased attention to management practises that sustain soil fertility • European forestry sector: Land use change scenarios indicate an increase in forest area under all but one socio-economic scenario. Climate change is anticipated to have an overall positive effect on growing stocks in Northern Europe. However, negative effects were projected in other regions, e.g. drought and fire pose an increasing risk to Mediterranean forests. The distribution of some tree species is projected to change, e.g. cork oak, holm oak, aleppo pine and maritime pine. Management seems to have a greater influence on the development of the growing stock and forest productivity than climate or land use change. When forest resources are not fully utilised, the age-class distribution shifts towards old and unproductive forests, while intensive, sustainable forest management keeps the net annual increment at a high level. • European terrestrial carbon balance: Europe‘s terrestrial biosphere currently acts as a small carbon sink. Despite considerable regional differences all scenarios show a weakening of this carbon sink after 2050. This trend is the net result of positive effects of land use change (i.e. reforestation) and negative effects of climate change on the Europe wide terrestrial carbon balance (considering all types of land uses, e.g. crop and grassland as well as forests). While European forest trees accumulate carbon, the soils of boreal forests may loose more carbon than the trees take up. Furthermore drought stress and increased fire risk in Mediterranean leads to increased carbon fluxes to the atmosphere. The relative importance of positive forest management effects on carbon stored in Northern forests for the Europe wide carbon balance is currently under debate. 37 Extensification – The transition of a land cover or land use type associated with high intensity of use to a lower intensity of use (e.g. improved grassland to semi- natural cover). 38 EU’s CAP – The Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union.
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