ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 56<br />
socio-economic context in which they might operate in the future. However, their anticipated future<br />
ability to adapt to change was a matter of personal perception. In a flood prone area in Germany it has<br />
recently been shown that “perceived adaptive capacity” is a major determinant of whether people will<br />
take adaptation measures or not (Grothmann and Reusswig 2004). It seems that more place based<br />
studies could better take account of the individual nature of vulnerability.<br />
The current framework was developed with the tools at hand and a wish list of analyses in mind. Strong<br />
points in the framework are the multiple scenarios as a measure of variability and uncertainty, the<br />
multiple stressors (climate, land use, and nitrogen deposition change), the stakeholder involvement, and<br />
the inclusion of a measure of adaptive capacity. The approach, as presented here, will facilitate the<br />
analysis of the ecosystem services estimated by ecosystem models. As the approach is applied, more<br />
advanced methods of combining changes potential impact (∆PI) and adaptive capacity (AC) may be<br />
developed, i.e. through fuzzy logic or qualitative differential equations (cf. Petschel-Held et al. 1999).<br />
However, prerequisite <strong>for</strong> this is a further understanding how ∆PI and AC interact and influence<br />
vulnerability, which may only be feasible when analysing specific cases. Ideally the AC index will<br />
eventually be replaced by sector specific projections of adaptive capacity. Some qualitative in<strong>for</strong>mation,<br />
or knowledge shared during stakeholder dialogues does not enter the approach in a <strong>for</strong>mal way.<br />
There<strong>for</strong>e it is imperative to discuss the results with stakeholders, experts and scientists as part of the<br />
analysis.<br />
To facilitate this discussion, and the analyses of underlying interactions and causes of anticipated<br />
vulnerability, the ca. 3200 maps and charts produced in ATEAM will be disseminated in <strong>for</strong>m of a digital<br />
atlas, the interactive ATEAM mapping tool. The atlas contains maps of vulnerability, as well as the<br />
underlying indicators, such as exposure, potential impact and adaptive capacity. In this tool, sectors,<br />
ecosystem services, scenarios and time slices can be selected and maps and summarising charts will<br />
be given on demand. Customised comparison of different scenarios, sectors, services and/or time slices<br />
is possible. Results can also be summarised by country or environmental zone. Each map and chart is<br />
accompanied by careful documentation of the underlying assumptions and an outline of the selected<br />
future scenario. A brief summary of each result shown is provided to prevent misunderstandings. This<br />
digital atlas is currently finalised and will be released soon, a demo version has already been tested at<br />
the last big stakeholder dialogue workshop. Figure 46 illustrates the welcoming screen – the preliminary<br />
nature of this version is indicated by the typo in the on-screen illustration of “Biodiversity”.