ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 25<br />
to substitute fossil fuels. Biomass energy production and carbon offset values were calculated <strong>for</strong> a<br />
range of land use scenarios. Land area under different energy crop types was based on land area<br />
demand from the IMAGE model and crop suitability maps (see above). Geographical location of crops<br />
was implemented based on allocation rules. Yields of different crop types were derived from the LPJ<br />
model outputs. Yields <strong>for</strong> short rotation coppice (woody) and grass (Miscanthus) crops were based on<br />
published yields. Land energy conversion factors were based on published literature. Assumptions were<br />
made about increasing crop yields, energy conversion efficiencies and changing energy conversion<br />
capabilities. Energy production from <strong>for</strong>est and agricultural residues were also calculated.<br />
This work will be published in paper to be submitted to a refereed journal (see Annex 2).<br />
6.2.2.2 Forestry<br />
Large scale impacts of climate and use change on <strong>for</strong>estry (regional level)<br />
Principle investigators: Jeannette Meyer, Sergey Zudin, Jari Liski, Marcus Lindner, Sönke Zaehle, Ari<br />
Pussinen<br />
The development of <strong>for</strong>est resources is affected by several factors, including tree species, age class<br />
distribution, soil properties, past and present <strong>for</strong>est management, climate, natural disturbances and land<br />
use change. The objective of the EFI contribution to ATEAM was to assess the impacts of changes in<br />
climate, land use, demand <strong>for</strong> <strong>for</strong>est products and <strong>for</strong>est management on the European <strong>for</strong>est sector<br />
using the European Forest In<strong>for</strong>mation Scenario model (EFISCEN).<br />
EFISCEN is a large-scale <strong>for</strong>est scenario model that uses <strong>for</strong>est inventory data as input (Sallnäs 1990;<br />
Pussinen et al. 2001). EFISCEN can be used to produce projections of the possible future development<br />
of <strong>for</strong>ests on a European, national or regional scale (Nabuurs et al. 1998; Päivinen et al. 1999; Nabuurs<br />
et al. 2001; Karjalainen et al. 2002). The inventory data used in this study cover almost 100 million<br />
hectares of <strong>for</strong>est available <strong>for</strong> wood supply and reflect the state of the <strong>for</strong>est around the mid-nineties in<br />
15 countries: EU15 without Greece and Luxembourg, plus Norway and Switzerland. Greece and<br />
Luxembourg were not simulated due to the lack of suitable inventory data.<br />
We used the seven ATEAM priority climate scenarios, together with the corresponding land use<br />
scenarios: the HadCM3 model with each of the four emission scenarios (A1f, A2, B1, B2), and the<br />
CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM models with the A2 emission scenario. In addition, demand scenarios were<br />
derived <strong>for</strong> the same storylines from the IMAGE scenario documentation (Image Team 2001). Current<br />
(2000) wood demand was scaled with demand projections from IMAGE 2.2 (Image Team 2001) <strong>for</strong><br />
each of the four emission scenarios, assuming that the relative change in felling levels would be<br />
constant throughout Europe. Wood demand increased strongly in the A1f scenario and, to a lesser<br />
extent, in the A2 scenario. In the B1 scenario, wood demand decreased, while it remained relatively<br />
constant in the B2 scenario.<br />
We used relative <strong>for</strong>est cover change from the ATEAM land use scenarios to scale the current (2000)<br />
<strong>for</strong>est area available <strong>for</strong> wood supply in each of the EFISCEN regions. Assumptions about which tree<br />
species would be chosen <strong>for</strong> af<strong>for</strong>estation were based on the socio economic storyline and the demand<br />
projections. We assumed that coniferous species would be favoured in the A1f and A2 worlds, due to<br />
the limited environmental concern and high wood demand in both scenarios. We assumed that only<br />
autochthonous 21 tree species would be used <strong>for</strong> af<strong>for</strong>estation in the environmental scenarios, B1 and<br />
B2. Management regimes (age limits <strong>for</strong> thinnings and final fellings) were based on a country-level<br />
compilation of management guidelines. Forest management under these regimes is different in the<br />
different scenarios and depends on wood demand. When wood demand is high, management is intense<br />
(i.e. shorter rotation time length).<br />
To incorporate climate change induced growth changes, we used net primary productivity (NPP) values<br />
21 Autochthonous – “native”, species that originate where they occur.