ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 24<br />
in latitude 45-54 has a climate suitable <strong>for</strong> growing soybean. By 2020 this is predicted to increase to<br />
60%. Many crops show an increase in potential areas of production in the 2020s which does not<br />
continue into the 2050s and 2080s – this may be due to a reduction in annual rainfall between 2020 and<br />
2050 (<strong>for</strong> example, soybean, in latitude 45-54).<br />
Currently the climate in latitude 65-71 is only suitable <strong>for</strong> a few potential biofuel crops (reed canary<br />
grass, linseed, short rotation coppice, barley, whole maize and Jerusalem artichoke). <strong>Climate</strong> change<br />
could allow a much wider range of crops to be grown here by the 2080s (Table 7), including rape,<br />
wheat, sugar beet, oats, rye and potato. <strong>Climate</strong> change could furthermore extend the suitable area of<br />
existing crops.<br />
The climate predicted by HadCM3 in many areas of southern Europe (Latitude 35-44) is anticipated to<br />
be less suitable <strong>for</strong> growing nearly all biofuel crops by 2050, with the exception of olives and other crops<br />
with a high temperature requirement, and ability to withstand drought, e.g. groundnut, safflower and<br />
prickly pear (Table 7).<br />
Figure 13 shows an example of the effect of the different scenarios, using output <strong>for</strong> sunflower, with<br />
simulated climate in 2020, 2050 and 2080 <strong>for</strong> the A1f, A2, B1 and B2 scenarios with HadCM3.<br />
Sunflower requires between 350 and 1500 mm of rain per year, with temperatures between 16 and<br />
41°C March to September. In all scenarios sunflower could potentially be grown further North by the<br />
2050s and 2080s than is currently the case, due to increased summer temperatures. The spread<br />
northwards is most pronounced with the A1f scenario, and least pronounced with the B2 scenario. All<br />
scenarios also predict a reduction in potential sunflower distribution in southern Europe, particularly in<br />
central Spain, due to summer drought. This effect again is most pronounced with the A1f scenario.<br />
Figure 14 shows an example of the effect of different GCMs <strong>for</strong> short rotation coppice (SRC) using<br />
simulated climate in 2080 from HadCM3 and CSIRO2. SRC requires between 600 and 2000 mm of rain<br />
per year, with minimum monthly temperatures of 5°C between May and September. It can be seen that<br />
by 2080 both models predict that SRC potential production will move North compared to potential<br />
production in 1990, due to increasing summer temperatures. SCR will be restricted to Scandinavia,<br />
Northern Europe and the UK, and production will no longer be possible in Northern Spain, and much of<br />
Central Europe, due to a decline in annual precipitation. It is also clear that there are differences<br />
between the two GCMs, with CSIRO2-climate in Germany and Poland still suitable <strong>for</strong> SRC production<br />
in the 2080s, whereas HadCM3-climate is not suitable <strong>for</strong> SRC in these countries. In HadCM3-climate<br />
the reduction in annual precipitation in these countries over time is greater than in CSIRO2-climate.<br />
In summary, we have derived maps of the potential distribution of 26 promising biofuel crops in Europe,<br />
based on simple rules <strong>for</strong> suitable climate conditions and elevation <strong>for</strong> each crop. We then studied the<br />
impact of climate change under different scenarios and from different GCMs on the potential future<br />
distribution of these crops. There is a general trend <strong>for</strong> crops to extend their range northwards due to<br />
increasing temperatures, with a reduced range in southern Europe, due to greater drought. These<br />
effects are greatest under the A1f scenario and by the 2080s, with differences between the different<br />
climate models (GCM).<br />
The work is planned to be published in Global Change Biology (see Annex 2). The full set of suitability<br />
maps is available from the principal investigators.<br />
Potential carbon offset by biomass energy use<br />
Principal investigators: Jo House, Gill Tuck, Pete Smith, Mark Rounsevell (with Jeremy Woods, Imperial<br />
College)<br />
When biomass energy products are used <strong>for</strong> energy production instead of fossil fuels, less carbon<br />
dioxide per unit energy produced is released. The difference between the carbon dioxide that would<br />
have been released had fossil fuels been used and the carbon dioxide released when biomass energy<br />
is used is called carbon offset. It is the amount of carbon dioxide saved when biomass energy are used