ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 23<br />
between the different climate models were of a similar magnitude to the emission scenario differences,<br />
showing that the choices we make about socio-economic development contribute substantially to<br />
uncertainty (Figure 9). Including plant growth is shown to slow the decrease in soil carbon relative to<br />
climate only (Figure 10). However, land use change also has a pronounced effect. In some cases, land<br />
use change (from abandoning croplands) slows the decline in soil carbon such that it counteracts the<br />
loss induced by climate change (Figure 11).<br />
Technological development also has the potential to slow the decrease in soil carbon (not shown), but<br />
this depends upon how much of the potential increase in net primary production (NPP, plant growth)<br />
due to technological improvements is translated into carbon inputs.<br />
In terms of soil fertility in the future, then, climate change will tend to decrease soil carbon, but greater<br />
plant growth will slightly decrease this adverse effect. Land use changes during this century (particularly<br />
abandonment of agriculture) might partially counteract the adverse effect of climate change on soil<br />
carbon in some cases.<br />
A number of papers to be submitted in peer-reviewed journals such as Global Biogeochemical Cycles<br />
are in preparation. Numerous presentations from this work have been given. All output is listed in<br />
Annex 2.<br />
Biomass energy crop suitability<br />
Principal investigators: Gill Tuck and Margaret Glendining<br />
The work centered on determining the potential distributions of biomass energy (biofuel) crops in<br />
Europe, and how climate change would effect these distributions.<br />
Twenty-seven actual or potential biofuel crops were selected from those already being grown in Europe,<br />
or those mentioned in literature as showing potential as biofuel crops (El Bassam, 1998). Simple rules<br />
were derived <strong>for</strong> each crop <strong>for</strong> suitable climate conditions and elevation, to determine their potential<br />
distribution in Europe. The climate conditions were based on minimum and maximum temperatures at<br />
various times of the year, and precipitation requirements (Bassam 1998; Russell & Wilson 1994; Russell<br />
1990). No account was taken of soil type, slope, etc. All crops are assumed to be rain fed, and not<br />
protected from frost.<br />
A suitability model was written to determine whether each crop could grow in each grid cell, based on<br />
the simple rules <strong>for</strong> climate and elevation. The output was used to produce maps of suitability using<br />
ESRI®ArcMap8.3 <strong>for</strong> each crop <strong>for</strong> the 1990 baseline and <strong>for</strong> climate scenarios of the time slices 2020,<br />
2050 and 2080, using all four climate models (HadCM3, CSIRO2, PCM and CGCM) with the four<br />
emission scenarios, A1f, A2, B1 and B2. No account was taken of changing CO2 concentrations, nor of<br />
changing likelihood of infections with pests and diseases resulting from climate change. The baseline<br />
maps were compared with maps of the regional distribution of ethanol, oil and biofuel crops (FAO 1996)<br />
and the FAO statistics of agricultural production (FAO 2002). Each crop was checked to ensure that all<br />
countries in Europe and N Africa listed as currently producing that crop were included in our baseline<br />
suitability maps. This is not an exhaustive check, as some crops are not grown in a country <strong>for</strong><br />
economic or other reasons, other than climate. For example, hemp cultivation is prohibited in Germany,<br />
due to possible production of cannabis. However, the climatic conditions in Germany would allow the<br />
crop to be grown there (Bassam, 1998).<br />
Table 7 (shown in Annex 3) summarises the percentage of total land area in Europe potentially suitable,<br />
in terms of climate and elevation only, <strong>for</strong> growing the 27 biofuel crops in 1990, grouped according to<br />
latitude (Figure 12 shows the latitudinal bands used). Table 7 also indicates the change in % land area<br />
with a suitable climate, due to climate change, in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, based on the HadCM3<br />
A2 scenarios. There is a general trend <strong>for</strong> the potential distribution of many crops to move North,<br />
compared to potential cropping areas in 1990. One of the most extreme examples is soybean, which<br />
has a minimum monthly summer temperature requirement of 17°C. Currently only 25% of the land area