ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 21<br />
Land cover<br />
Land use<br />
Land use<br />
scenarios<br />
Land use<br />
history<br />
Socioeconomic<br />
scenarios<br />
(http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timm/grid/table.html)<br />
European HYDRO1k data (USGS EROS Data Center<br />
/Distributed Active Archive Center,<br />
http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/gtopo30/hydro/europe.html)<br />
CORINE except Sweden, Croatia and Yugoslavia,<br />
Russia 250m x 250m (Corine 1997, BFS 2002)<br />
PELCOM, pan-European land-cover 1100m x 1100m<br />
(Mücher et al. 1999)<br />
IMAGE2.2 SRES scenario implementation data (RIVM,<br />
2001)<br />
Forest species maps (Köble & Seufert, 2001)<br />
aggregated to Plant Functional Types (PFTs)<br />
Land-use change scenarios created by UCL (see this<br />
report work package WP 4 and Ewert et al. 2004 in<br />
press)<br />
Historic land cover changes (Ramankutty & Foley,<br />
1999)<br />
HYDE data set (Goldewijk, 2001)<br />
Forest area 1960-1994 (FAO, 2000;<br />
http://dataservice.eea.eu.int/dataservice/)<br />
FAO <strong>for</strong>est resource assessment 1948-2000 (Efidas,<br />
2000; http://www.efi.fi/efidas/)<br />
Indicators <strong>for</strong> adaptive capacity: national data downscaled<br />
to NUTS2 18 Region via urban area) (Klein et al.,<br />
in prep.; http://www.ciesin.org/)<br />
Elevation, slope, aspect, topographic index,<br />
flow direction, flow accumulation, watersheds,<br />
streams<br />
Urban areas, arable land, permanent crops,<br />
pastures, heterogeneous agricultural areas 2 ,<br />
<strong>for</strong>ests, shrub and/or herbaceous vegetation<br />
associations, open spaces with little or no<br />
vegetation, inland wetlands, coastal wetlands,<br />
inland waters<br />
C3 grass, fodder, cereals other than rice or<br />
maize, rice, maize, pulses, roots & tubers, oil<br />
crops<br />
temperate needleaved evergreen, temperate<br />
broadleaved evergreen, temperate broadleaved<br />
summergreen, boreal needleleaved evergreen,<br />
boreal needleleaved summergreen, boreal<br />
broadleaved summergreen<br />
Change in arable land, grassland, <strong>for</strong>ests,<br />
urban area, biofuels, surplus land, others<br />
projected <strong>for</strong> the time slices 2020, 2050, 2080<br />
and the 4 SRES scenarios (A1f, A2, B1, B2)<br />
Change in arable land, grassland, <strong>for</strong>ests,<br />
urban area, others in 10 years time steps from<br />
1900 onwards<br />
Inequality, telephone mainlines, number of<br />
physicians, enrolment (number of people<br />
attending higher education), GDP and<br />
population density per administrative region<br />
(NUTs level 2) <strong>for</strong> 2000, 2020, 2050, 2080 per<br />
SRES scenario (A1f, A2, B1, B2)<br />
6.2.2 Modelling of ecosystem service supply (WP2)<br />
We modelled potential impacts using the input scenarios of global change and a range of state-of-theart<br />
ecosystem models that represent the sensitivity of the human-environment system. The ATEAM<br />
modelling framework consists of models <strong>for</strong> agricultural systems, <strong>for</strong> <strong>for</strong>est systems, <strong>for</strong> biogeochemistry<br />
and vegetation cover, <strong>for</strong> fire driven dynamics, <strong>for</strong> water catchments, <strong>for</strong> biodiversity, and <strong>for</strong> mountain<br />
ecosystems (Table 6). We have adapted the structure and content of these ecosystem models to<br />
optimise their use <strong>for</strong> vulnerability assessment at the regional scale <strong>for</strong> Europe. Where needed and<br />
possible, models were enhanced, recalibrated and modified, based on the outcomes of the testing of<br />
their per<strong>for</strong>mance. In the following we will report on potential impacts that were estimated using these<br />
models <strong>for</strong> European sectors.<br />
18 NUTS2 = Nomenclature des Units Territoriales Statistiques 2: regions or provinces within a country. There are around 500<br />
NUTS2 units, as apposed to only 17 EU countries.