ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 2
Table of Contents
Acknowledgements.................................................................................................................................. 5
Section 5 – Executive publishable summary, related to the overall project duration
Objectives............................................................................................................................................ 6
Scientific achievements ....................................................................................................................... 6
Main deliverables................................................................................................................................. 7
Socio-economic relevance and policy implications.............................................................................. 7
Conclusions......................................................................................................................................... 7
Dissemination of results....................................................................................................................... 7
Keywords............................................................................................................................................. 8
Section 6: Detailed report, related to overall project duration
6.1 Background (description of the problem to be solved)............................................................ 9
6.1 Scientific/technological and socio-economic objectives........................................................ 10
6.2 Applied methodology, scientific achievements and main deliverables.................................. 10
6.2.1 Scenarios of global change (WP3 and 4)......................................................................... 12
6.2.1.1 Socio-economic and emission scenarios................................................................. 12
6.2.1.2 Climate change scenarios ....................................................................................... 13
6.2.1.3 Land use change scenarios..................................................................................... 15
European level sectoral driving forces.................................................................................. 15
Regional level land use specific quantification of scenarios ................................................. 17
Urban land use................................................................................................................. 17
Protected areas................................................................................................................ 17
Agriculture and biofuels.................................................................................................... 17
Forest............................................................................................................................... 18
Competition between land uses ....................................................................................... 18
Summary of European land use trends ................................................................................ 19
6.2.1.4 Nitrogen deposition scenarios ................................................................................. 19
6.2.1.5 Overview over the complete ATEAM global change input data set ......................... 20
6.2.2 Modelling of ecosystem service supply (WP2) ................................................................. 21
6.2.2.1 Agriculture ............................................................................................................... 22
Soil organic carbon............................................................................................................... 22
Biomass energy crop suitability ............................................................................................ 23
Potential carbon offset by biomass energy use .................................................................... 24
6.2.2.2 Forestry ................................................................................................................... 25
Large scale impacts of climate and use change on forestry (regional level)......................... 25
Main conclusions for forestry results on the regional level ............................................... 27
Impacts on specific forest tree species................................................................................. 27
6.2.2.3 Carbon Storage ....................................................................................................... 28
European terrestrial carbon balance..................................................................................... 28
Flux data benchmarking ....................................................................................................... 30
Temperature dependency of soil respiration......................................................................... 30
6.2.2.4 Water....................................................................................................................... 30
Changes in hydrological regime ........................................................................................... 31
Implications for indicators of water resources....................................................................... 31
6.2.2.5 Biodiversity and nature conservation....................................................................... 32
6.2.2.6 Mountains................................................................................................................ 33
Fresh water supply in mountain catchments......................................................................... 34
Floods in the Alpine area...................................................................................................... 34
Tourism and recreation in the mountains.............................................................................. 35