ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 19<br />
to be actively managed (i.e. they are ‘abandoned’ where previously actively used).<br />
Summary of European land use trends<br />
The general trends shown by the scenarios are of small increases in urban areas with different spatial<br />
patterns, large reductions in agricultural areas <strong>for</strong> food production (except <strong>for</strong> B1 and B2) partly<br />
compensated <strong>for</strong> by increases in bioenergy production, <strong>for</strong>ests and areas protected <strong>for</strong> conservation<br />
and/or recreation with surplus land in the A1f and A2 scenarios. Figure 6 summarises these trends <strong>for</strong><br />
the four SRES scenarios in 2080 (<strong>for</strong> HADCM3).<br />
The large declines (of over 50%) in the surface areas of agricultural land use (especially grassland) <strong>for</strong><br />
the A (economic) scenarios are caused primarily by the assumptions about the role of technological<br />
development. These area reductions are only partly compensated <strong>for</strong> by increasing biofuel production<br />
and <strong>for</strong>est land use, so that surplus land occurs within the A1f and A2 scenarios. It is unclear what could<br />
happen to these areas of surplus land, although it seems that continued urban expansion, recreational<br />
areas and <strong>for</strong>est land use would all be likely to take up at least some of the surplus. Declines in<br />
agricultural areas were less <strong>for</strong> the B (environmental) scenarios. This assumes, however, that the<br />
pressures toward declining agricultural areas are counterbalanced by policy mechanisms that seek to<br />
limit crop productivity. This could include measures to promote (a) extensification 16 or organic<br />
production (particularly consistent in the environmental scenarios), (b) the substitution of food<br />
production by energy production and the planting of trees, or an acceptance of overproduction (as with<br />
the current EU’s CAP 17 ).<br />
A number of publications have already resulted from this work -- the papers referred to in the following<br />
are listed in Annex 2. One paper summarises especially the urban land use scenarios (Reginster and<br />
Rounsevell, 2004, submitted). Four papers summarise the approach developed <strong>for</strong> the agricultural<br />
scenarios and biofuels (Ewert et al, 2004, accepted; Ewert et al., 2004 submitted, Rounsevell et al.<br />
2004, submitted, House et al., 2004, in preparation). Two papers summarise especially the <strong>for</strong>est policy<br />
analysis and the <strong>for</strong>est land use scenarios (Kankaanpää and Carter 2004 a,b). One paper in preparation<br />
will summarise the development of the scenarios <strong>for</strong> protected areas (Reginster, Araujo et al.2004).<br />
Synthesizing papers will also be submitted.<br />
6.2.1.4 Nitrogen deposition scenarios<br />
In collaboration with Maximilian Posch and Joseph Alcamo nitrous oxide (NOx)-deposition scenarios<br />
have been created <strong>for</strong> the different SRES scenarios in 5 year steps from 1970 to 2100. The scenarios<br />
were derived using a framework of two integrated models: RAINS (Regional Acidification In<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
and Simulation) and IMAGE (IMAGE team 2001). The main NOx emission source is fossil fuel<br />
combustion due to road transportation and power generation. The basic assumptions underlying the<br />
scenarios are that all European NOx-deposition stems from European emissions, and that its<br />
distribution across European countries does not change in the future (the 2000 shares are taken to<br />
distribute emissions). Emissions from power generation are based on current point sources; all others<br />
are homogeneously distributed over the countries. The methodology that was followed is described in<br />
detail in Alcamo et al. 2002. In short, European NOx emissions from the IMAGE model were used to<br />
determine the size of future sources. Then the EMEP/MSC-W (EMEP = Co-operative Programme <strong>for</strong><br />
Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-Range Transmission of Air pollutants in Europe; MSC-W =<br />
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West) source-receptor calculations described regional transport of<br />
NOx in the atmosphere and local N-depositions (Lagrangian model). Finally each ATEAM grid cell was<br />
assigned the value of the corresponding EMEP grid (0.5° x 1.0° resolution).<br />
These scenarios do not include deposition of reduced nitrogen compounds NHy, e.g. ammonium NH3.<br />
16 Extensification – The transition of a land cover or land use type associated with high intensity of use to a lower intensity of<br />
use (e.g. improved grassland to semi- natural cover).<br />
17 EU’s CAP – The Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union.