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ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 16 Table 3. Summary of scenarios for cross-cutting drivers at the European scale A1 Europe Economy Population Technology Institutions and government Rural development Recreation, tourism Spatial planning EU enlargement A2 Europe Economy Population Technology Institutions and government Rural development Recreation, tourism Spatial planning EU enlargement B1 Europe Economy Population Technology Institutions and government Rural development Recreation, tourism Spatial planning EU enlargement B2 Europe Economy Population Technology Institutions and government Rural development Recreation, tourism Spatial planning EU enlargement Very rapid economic growth and convergence between regions. European income inequalities eradicated. Material consumption and increases in income/capital lead to increased use of natural resources European fertility rates reach 1.7 with a slight increase in population to 2050 then a decrease High investments in technology and high rates of innovation Governments are weak with a strong commitment to market based solutions. International co-operation. Stable political and social climate, with good health care and education. Self-sufficiency not an issue; free trade emphasised. Focus on centres and international connections, rural development not a focus area. Increased affluence has "spill-over" effects on rural and remote areas. Increase in recreation areas close to urban centres, wilderness areas are less attractive. Increases in beach resorts and locations with built facilities rather than eco-tourism Convergence of planning policy and less restrictions Proceeds rapidly Moderate GDP growth; slower than A1. Economic development is regionally-oriented and uneven. The income gap between developed and developing countries does not narrow. European fertility rates reach 2.1 resulting in a steady increase in the population Slower than in A1 and more heterogeneous. Technology transfer and diffusion slower Self-reliance of regions, less mobility of people, ideas and capital. Social and political institutions diversify. Central national governments weak, "markets first" approach. A more protectionist Europe compared to the present which could mean a stronger EU. Rural development results as a by-product of the stress on regional self-reliance Tourism decreases, but recreation increases with population increases. Demand for near urban recreation areas increases, but areas distant to centres are also used for recreation by a dispersed population. Built facilities are valued, wilderness areas are less popular. Heterogeneity of planning policy Stops or proceeds very slowly A convergent world with global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. Progress toward international and national income equality. Affluent with moderate GDP growth rates. European fertility rates reach 1.7 with slight population increase by 2050 then a decrease Rapid technological change Central governments strong with a high level of regulation. International institutions and cooperation central. Rural development a key issue: equitable income distribution and development a priority Tourism decreases, but recreation increases, both near to urban centres and in remote areas Homogeneous, restrictive policies with high level of regulation Proceeds at a moderate rate Local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. Rate of development and GDP growth rate is generally low. International income differences decrease at a slower rate than in A1, B1. Education and welfare programmes are pursued. Population is stable Technological change and innovation unevenly distributed Local self-reliance and strong communities. Decision making is at local/regional level and central government is weak. Citizen participation in decision making is high and government policies and business strategies are influenced by public participation. Increases because of emphasis on self-reliance and local products Tourism decreases. Recreation increases nearer to urban areas and rural villages with access by public transportation. Restrictive and heterogeneous policy Stops
ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 17 Regional level land use specific quantification of scenarios At the regional level, changes in land use areas for each land use type were estimated. One of the important issues when dealing with land use change in Europe is that these changes will also be affected by events outside of Europe. This is especially important in relation to trends in global trade. Thus, land use in Europe reflects not only demand (and supply) of the internal market, but also the demand for land based goods (e.g. food, wood products) that derive from outside of Europe. Estimation of these demands required the use of an integrated assessment model that simulates global trade patterns. In the work reported here, results from the IMAGE 2.2 model were used for this purpose. IMAGE provides for OECD 13 Europe (and for each of the considered scenarios) demands for agricultural and forestry products (including animal products, food crops, grass and fodder species, wood and biofuel crops). These demands were used both directly in the quantitative assessments for agriculture, and as a cross-check for the forestry land use change areas. Urban land use The following driving forces of urban land use change were identified: population, economics, accessibility of a location with respect to the transport network, the distance to large cities, the distance to medium sized cities and the distance to small cities. The city distances are distinguished according to city size in order to reflect the different impacts and attractiveness of a larger or a smaller city, and in order to simulate the different patterns of sub-urbanisation and counter-urbanisation processes. For each of the driving forces, indicators were chosen or calculated that were applied to an empiricalstatistical model integrating theory and empirical data on urban land use. The results for each scenario show alternative patterns of future urban distributions, diffuse or concentrated, with larger increases in urbanisation close to large cities, or in rural areas. Protected areas Whilst the location of protected areas may change, it is assumed that the land use within a protected area will not change from the baseline, whatever the land use type and whatever the scenario. The main driving force for protected areas is European and national policy for nature conservation. Other driving forces include policies for agriculture, forestry and spatial planning, as well as the demand for (green) recreation and tourism. An assumption is made that for all scenarios 20% of the area of Europe will have been designated as protected by 2080. Whilst the amount of new protected areas is the same for all scenarios, this target is assumed to be reached for different reasons: the economic scenarios require areas for recreation for a richer population, whereas the environmental scenarios have protection for conservation purposes. The allocation (location) of these protected areas between scenarios is assumed, however, to vary substantially. For the regional scenarios (A2, B2) the target is reached locally (country-level) and for the global scenarios (A1, B1) it is reached European-wide. Furthermore, for the A1 and A2 scenarios, economic priorities are assumed to lead to an opportunistic strategy for the location of new protected areas: their selection is based on the minimisation of opportunity costs. Basically, less valuable land is designated for protection. For the B1 and B2 scenarios, environmental priorities lead to a conservation strategy for the designation of new areas, and an assumption is made that new areas will maximise the conservation potential and biodiversity. Allocation rules are based, therefore, on the distribution of species and the need to conserve a maximum of species. For this purpose, biodiversity modelling results from WP2 were fed back into the land use modelling procedure. Agriculture and biofuels The driving forces for agricultural land use change are: world demand and supply, market intervention (through agricultural policy), rural development policy, environmental policy pressure, impact of EU 13 OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
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