ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 126 MDS ATN Figure 43. Summary of the changes in an ecosystem service by Environmental Zone. This figure shows the mean change in potential wheat yield compared to 1990 for Mediterranean South (MDS) and Atlantic North (ATN) for the four SRES scenarios and four Global Circulation Models (GCMs). In MDS potential wheat yield decrease dramatically, although there is considerable variability between scenarios and GCMs. In ATN wheat yield levels stay stable. potential impact adaptive capacity ∆PI Sstr AC 1.0 0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 vulnerability AC V low high high low PI 1.0 0 -1.0 Figure 44. Vulnerability maps combine information about changes in potential impact (∆PI) and adaptive capacity (AC), as illustrated by the legend. An decrease of stratified potential impact decreases vulnerability and visa versa. At the same time vulnerability is lowered by human adaptive capacity. In this visual overlay, the relationship between ∆PI and AC is not specified beyond high ∆PI and low AC result in high vulnerability. Furthermore, the scale has no unit – the map identifies areas to guide further analyses of the underlying data. The illustrative example given here is based on wood production in the Forestry sector in 2080, considering climate and land use based on A1 HadCM3.
ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 127 A1f A2 B1 B2 2020 2050 2080 Figure 45. Vulnerability maps based on the ecosystem service “Farmer livelihood”, sector agriculture. The maps are based on changes in potential impacts on farmer livelihood relative to 1990 and the adaptive capacity index for the different scenarios and time slices. The legend of Figure 44 applies (red is vulnerable, green is not vulnerable; and grey means there is no change in vulnerability relative to 1990). Drivers were climate scenarios based on the general circulation model HadCM3 and the respective land use change for the storylines A1f, A2, B1, and B2.
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ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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