ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 126
MDS
ATN
Figure 43. Summary of the changes in an ecosystem service by Environmental Zone. This figure shows the mean change in
potential wheat yield compared to 1990 for Mediterranean South (MDS) and Atlantic North (ATN) for the four SRES
scenarios and four Global Circulation Models (GCMs). In MDS potential wheat yield decrease dramatically, although there is
considerable variability between scenarios and GCMs. In ATN wheat yield levels stay stable.
potential impact
adaptive capacity
∆PI
Sstr
AC
1.0
0
-1.0
1.0
0.0
vulnerability
AC
V
low
high
high
low
PI
1.0
0
-1.0
Figure 44. Vulnerability maps combine information about changes in potential impact (∆PI) and adaptive capacity (AC), as
illustrated by the legend. An decrease of stratified potential impact decreases vulnerability and visa versa. At the same time
vulnerability is lowered by human adaptive capacity. In this visual overlay, the relationship between ∆PI and AC is not
specified beyond high ∆PI and low AC result in high vulnerability. Furthermore, the scale has no unit – the map identifies
areas to guide further analyses of the underlying data. The illustrative example given here is based on wood production in
the Forestry sector in 2080, considering climate and land use based on A1 HadCM3.