ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 124 Figure 40. The Environmental Classification of Europe in eighty-four classes, aggregated to 13 Environmental Zones. Because certain classes do not necessarily fit traditional experience, in this classification strict statistical rules have been maintained, recognising these apparent inconsistencies, e.g. PAN in the Vosges and Schwarzwald and CON in southern Norway. Here we distinguish 13 Environmental Zones: ALN – Alpine North, BOR – Boreal, NEM – Nemoral, ATN – Atlantic North, ALS – Alpine South, CON – Continental, ATC – Atlantic Central, PAN – Pannonian, LUS – Lusitanian, ANO – Anotolian, MDM – Mediterranean Mountains, MDN – Mediterranean North, MDS – Mediterranean South. Figure 41. Climatic and topographic variables were statistically clustered into 84 environmental classes. By calculating discriminant functions for the classes they can be mapped for each global change scenario, resulting in maps of shifting environmental zones that can be used for stratification. Here we distinguish 13 Environmental Zones: ALN – Alpine North, BOR – Boreal, NEM – Nemoral, ATN – Atlantic North, ALS – Alpine South, CON – Continental, ATC – Atlantic Central, PAN – Pannonian, LUS – Lusitanian, ANO – Anotolian, MDM – Mediterranean Mountains, MDN – Mediterranean North, MDS – Mediterranean South.
ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 125 Atlantic North - ATN precipitation change (%) precipitation change (%) 50 25 0 -25 50 25 0 -25 DEC - FEB 0 2 4 6 8 JUN - AUG MAR - MAY 0 2 4 6 8 SEP - NOV SCENARIO GCM 0 2 4 6 8 temperature change (° C) 0 2 4 6 8 temperature change (° C) 2080 variability LAND USE SCENARIOS 2080-A2 variability GCMs on LAND USE pie chart legend LAND USE CHANGE (%) 1990 - 2080 30 15 0 -15 -30 land use type scenario A1 A2 B1 B2 Mediterranean North - MDN precipitation change (%) precipitation change (%) 50 25 0 -25 50 25 0 -25 DEC - FEB 0 2 4 6 8 JUN - AUG 0 2 4 6 8 temperature change (° C) MAR - MAY 0 2 4 6 8 SEP - NOV 0 2 4 6 8 temperature change (° C) SCENARIO GCM 2080 variability LAND USE SCENARIOS 2080-A2 variability GCMs on LAND USE pie chart legend LAND USE CHANGE (%) 1990 - 2080 30 15 0 -15 -30 land use type scenario A1 A2 B1 B2 Figure 42. Summaries of the scenarios per Environmental Zone aids the interpretation of the scenarios. For instance, the two examples in this figure show that the variability in the climate change scenarios is greater in the Mediterranean North (MDN) than in the Atlantic North (ATN) and that there is considerable disagreement between the Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for the summer months in MDN. This figure also shows that land use changes are far greater in MDN.
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ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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