ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 122 VULNERABILITY of sectors in the human-environment system to changes in ecosystem services under global change EXPOSURE (E) ADAPTIVE CAPACITY socio-economic & land-use SENSITIVITY (S) Adaptive Capacity index AC N-deposition economic sector ecosystem models Ecosystem Service Supply POTENTIAL IMPACT Vulnerability index V = f(E,S,AC) = f(PI,AC) atmospheric composition global change scenarios climate change Environmental Classification (EnC) Potential Impact index PI = f(S,E) (managed) ecosystem human-environment system Figure 38. Summary of the ATEAM approach to quantify vulnerability. Global change scenarios of exposure are the drivers of a suite of ecosystem models that make projections for future ecosystem services supply for a 10’x10’ spatial grid of Europe. Socio-economic scenarios are used to project developments in macro-scale adaptive capacity. The climate change scenarios are used to create a scheme for stratifying of ecosystem service supply in a regional environmental context (Potential Impact Index). Changes in the stratified ecosystem service supply compared to baseline conditions reflect the potential impact of a given location. The potential impact and adaptive capacity indices can be combined, at least visually, to create European maps of regional vulnerability to changes in ecosystem service supply.
ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 123 Figure 39. The potential impact maps are directly based on the model outputs for ecosystem service supply (in this case carbon storage). The stratified potential impact map shows more regional detail by putting the results into their environmental context (see text). The change in stratified potential impacts shows the stratified potential impacts through the 21 st century, showing the time slices 2020, 2050 and 2080 relative to the 1990 baseline.
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ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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