ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 122<br />
VULNERABILITY<br />
of sectors in the human-environment system to changes in ecosystem services under global change<br />
EXPOSURE (E)<br />
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY<br />
socio-economic<br />
& land-use<br />
SENSITIVITY (S)<br />
Adaptive Capacity index<br />
AC<br />
N-deposition<br />
economic sector<br />
ecosystem models<br />
Ecosystem Service Supply<br />
POTENTIAL IMPACT<br />
Vulnerability index<br />
V = f(E,S,AC) = f(PI,AC)<br />
atmospheric<br />
composition<br />
global change scenarios<br />
climate change<br />
Environmental<br />
Classification<br />
(EnC)<br />
Potential <strong>Impact</strong> index<br />
PI = f(S,E)<br />
(managed)<br />
ecosystem<br />
human-environment system<br />
Figure 38. Summary of the ATEAM approach to quantify vulnerability. Global change scenarios of exposure are the drivers<br />
of a suite of ecosystem models that make projections <strong>for</strong> future ecosystem services supply <strong>for</strong> a 10’x10’ spatial grid of<br />
Europe. Socio-economic scenarios are used to project developments in macro-scale adaptive capacity. The climate change<br />
scenarios are used to create a scheme <strong>for</strong> stratifying of ecosystem service supply in a regional environmental context<br />
(Potential <strong>Impact</strong> Index). Changes in the stratified ecosystem service supply compared to baseline conditions reflect the<br />
potential impact of a given location. The potential impact and adaptive capacity indices can be combined, at least visually, to<br />
create European maps of regional vulnerability to changes in ecosystem service supply.
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