ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 104 Table 7. Percentage of total land area in different latitudes of Europe potentially suitable, in terms of climate, for growing biomass energy crops in 1990. Change in potential area due to climate change in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Climate scenario A2-HadCM3. Increase(↑) or decrease (↓) in % land area: ↑ or ↓ = 3-10% of land area; ↑↑or ↓↓ = 11-20%; ↑↑↑ or ↓↓↓ =21-30%; ↑↑↑↑ or ↓↓↓↓ = 31-40% etc. See Figure 12 for an illustration of the latitudinal bands. Latitude (degrees) 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-71 Timeslice 1990 2020 2050 2080 1990 2020 2050 2080 1990 2020 2050 2080 1990 2020 2050 2080 Potential biomass energy crop % area Change in area relative to 1990 % area Change in area relative to 1990 % area Change in area relative to 1990 % area Change in area relative to 1990 Sunflower 66 ↑ ↓ 55 ↓ ↑↑ ↑↑ 0 ↑ 0 Safflower 16 ↑ ↑↑ 0 ↑ 0 0 Rape 63 89 71 ↑ 0 ↑↑↑ Linseed 51 ↑ ↓↓ ↓↓↓ 89 ↓↓ 84 ↓ 11 ↑↑ ↑↑↑↑↑ Field Mustard 9 ↓ 48 ↑ ↓↓ ↓↓↓ 19 ↑↑↑↑ ↑ ↑ 0 ↑ Castor 44 ↓ ↑ 11 ↓ ↑ ↑↑↑ 0 0 Olives 71 ↑↑ ↑ 9 ↑↑↑↑↑↑ ↑ ↑↑ 0 ↑ ↑↑ 0 Soybean 75 ↓ ↓ 25 ↑↑↑↑↑ ↑ 0 ↑↑ ↑↑ ↑ 0 Groundnut 27 ↑ ↑↑ 3 ↑ ↑ 0 0 Barley 72 ↓ ↓↓↓ 92 ↓ 85 ↑ 19 ↑↑↑↑ ↑↑ ↑↑↑ Wheat 58 ↓↓↓ ↓↓↓ 91 ↓↓ 71 ↑↑ ↑ 0 ↑↑↑ ↑↑ ↑↑↑↑ Oats 4 66 ↓ ↓↓↓ ↓↓ 69 ↓ ↓↓ 0 ↑↑ Rye 10 ↓ ↓ 77 ↓ ↓↓↓ ↓↓↓ 72 ↑ ↓ 0 ↑↑↑ Potato 5 ↓ 61 ↓ ↓↓↓ ↓↓ 73 ↑ ↓↓ 0 ↑ ↑↑↑↑↑ Sugarbeet 62 ↓ ↓↓↓ 76 ↑ 69 ↑ ↑ 0 ↑ ↑↑↑↑↑ Sugarcane 6 ↓ 0 0 0 Maize whole 70 ↓ ↓ 87 ↑ 77 ↑ ↑ 12 ↑↑↑ ↑↑↑ ↑↑↑ Hemp 19 ↓ ↓ ↓ 53 ↑↑ ↓ ↓↓↓ 12 ↑↑↑↑↑ ↑↑ ↑ 0 ↑↑ Jerusalem Artichoke 3 46 ↓ ↓↓↓ ↓ 48 ↓ 12 ↑↑↑↑ ↑ ↑↑↑ Cardoon 12 ↑↑ 4 ↑ ↑ ↑ 0 0 Kenaf 33 ↑ ↓ ↓↓ 29 ↑ ↑↑ ↑ 0 ↑ 0 Prickly Pear 11 ↑ 0 0 0 Sorghum 25 ↑↑↑ ↑ ↓ 22 ↓ ↑ ↑↑ 0 0 Reed Canary Grass 66 ↓↓ ↓ 58 ↑↑ 33 ↑↑↑↑ ↑ 18 ↑ ↑ ↑↑↑ Miscanthus 56 ↓↓ ↓ 54 ↑↑ 7 ↑↑ ↑ ↑↑ 0 SRC 4 42 ↑ ↓↓ ↓↓↓ 28 ↑↑↑↑ ↑ ↓ 7 ↑ ↑ ↑↑ Eucalyptus 92 ↓ ↓ ↓↓↓ 89 ↑ 39 ↑↑ ↑ ↑↑ 0
ATEAM final report Section 5 and 6 (2001-2004) 105 Baseline 1990 A1f Time slice 2020 2050 2080 A2 B1 B2 Figure 13. Modelled potential distribution of sunflower in Europe, using HadCM3 climate change model, and A1, A2, B1, and B2 scenarios for the time slices 2020, 2050, and 2080. The baseline (1990) is shown for comparison.
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ateam - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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