2006;56;106-130 CA Cancer J Clin Smigal and Michael J. Thun ...

CA Cancer J Clin 2006;56:106–130
TABLE 11 Probability of Developing Invasive Cancers Within Selected Age Intervals, by Sex, US, 2000
to 2002*
70 and Birth to
Birth to 39 40 to 59 60 to 69 Older Death
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
All sites† Male 1.43 (1 in 70) 8.57 (1 in 12) 16.46 (1 in 6) 39.61 (1 in 3) 45.67 (1 in 2)
Female 1.99 (1 in 50) 9.06 (1 in 11) 10.54 (1 in 9) 26.72 (1 in 4) 38.09 (1 in 3)
Urinary bladder Male .02 (1 in 4375) .40 (1 in 250) .93 (1 in 108) 3.35 (1 in 30) 3.58 (1 in 28)
Female .01 (1 in 9513) .12 (1 in 816) .25 (1 in 402) .96 (1 in 104) 1.14 (1 in 88)
Breast Female .48 (1 in 209) 4.11 (1 in 24) 3.82 (1 in 26) 7.13 (1 in 14) 13.22 (1 in 8)
Colon & rectum Male .07 (1 in 1399) .90 (1 in 111) 1.66 (1 in 60) 4.94 (1 in 20) 5.84 (1 in 17)
Female .06 (1 in 1567) .70 (1 in 143) 1.16 (1 in 86) 4.61 (1 in 22) 5.51 (1 in 18)
Leukemia Male .15 (1 in 650) .22 (1 in 459) .35 (1 in 284) 1.17 (1 in 85) 1.50 (1 in 67)
Female .13 (1 in 788) .14 (1 in 721) .19 (1 in 513) .78 (1 in 129) 1.07 (1 in 93)
Lung & bronchus Male .03 (1 in 3244) 1.00 (1 in 100) 2.45 (1 in 41) 6.33 (1 in 16) 7.58 (1 in 13)
Female .03 (1 in 3103) .80 (1 in 125) 1.68 (1 in 60) 4.17 (1 in 24) 5.72 (1 in 17)
Melanoma of the skin Male .13 (1 in 800) .51 (1 in 195) .51 (1 in 195) 1.25 (1 in 80) 1.94 (1 in 52)
Female .21 (1 in 470) .40 (1 in 248) .26 (1 in 381) .56 (1 in 178) 1.30 (1 in 77)
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma Male .14 (1 in 722) .47 (1 in 215) .56 (1 in 178) 1.57 (1 in 64) 2.18 (1 in 46)
Female .09 (1 in 1158) .31 (1 in 320) .42 (1 in 237) 1.29 (1 in 77) 1.82 (1 in 55)
Prostate Male .01 (1 in 10149) 2.66 (1 in 38) 7.19 (1 in 14) 14.51 (1 in 7) 17.93 (1 in 6)
Uterine cervix Female .15 (1 in 657) .28 (1 in 353) .15 (1 in 671) .22 (1 in 464) .74 (1 in 135)
Uterine corpus Female .06 (1 in 1641) .72 (1 in 139) .83 (1 in 120) 1.36 (1 in 74) 2.61 (1 in 38)
*For those free of cancer at beginning of age interval. Based on cancer cases diagnosed during 2000 to 2002. The “1 in”
statistic and the inverse of the percentage may not be equivalent due to rounding.
†All sites excludes basal and squamous cell skin cancers and in situ cancers except urinary bladder.
Source: DevCan Software, Probability of Developing or Dying of Cancer Software, Version 6.0. Statistical Research and
Applications Branch, National Cancer Institute, 2005. http://srab.cancer.gov/devcan.
ferences in comorbidities. The extent to which
these factors, individually or collectively, contribute
to the overall differential survival is unclear.
16 However, recent findings suggest that
African Americans who receive similar cancer
treatment and medical care as Whites experience
similar outcomes. 17
There have been notable improvements
over time in relative five-year survival rates
for many cancer sites and for all cancers
combined (Table 12). This is true for both
Whites and African Americans. However,
5-year relative survival is still very poor (less
than 25%) for many cancers, including pancreas,
liver, esophagus, lung, and stomach.
Relative survival rates cannot be calculated
for other racial and ethnic populations because
accurate life expectancies are not available.
However, based on cause-specific survival rates
of cancer patients diagnosed from 1992 to 2000
in SEER areas of the United States, all minority
populations, except Asian/Pacific Islander
women, have a greater probability of dying
from cancer within 5 years of diagnosis than
non-Hispanic Whites after accounting for differences
in age at diagnosis. 18,19 For the four
major cancer sites (prostate, female breast, lung
and bronchus, and colon and rectum), minority
populations are more likely to be diagnosed at
distant stage, compared with non-Hispanic
Whites. 19
CANCER IN CHILDREN
Cancer is the second leading cause of death
among children between the ages of 1 and 14
years in the United States; accidents are the most
frequent cause of death in this age group (Table
13). The most common cancers in children (0 to
14 years) are leukemia (particularly acute lymphocytic
leukemia), cancer of the brain and other
nervous system, soft tissue sarcomas, non-
Hodgkin Lymphoma, and renal (Wilms) tumors.
3 Over the past 25 years, there have been
significant improvements in the 5-year relative
survival rate for many childhood cancers (Table
14). The 5-year relative survival rate among children
for all cancer sites combined improved from
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