The Pfandbrief 2011 | 2012

The German Property Market – Guaranteeing the Sustained Value of Mortgage Pfandbriefe
Change in RevPAR: 2010 against 2009
%
30
20
2010
2009
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Berlin
Düsseldorf
Frankfurt
Hamburg
Cologne
Leipzig
Munich
Stuttgart
Sources: Eurohypo RAC Research, German Hotel Association (IHA)
72
The transaction volume is expected to rise further during the course of 2011 to close to precrisis
levels. The positive trend in the number of visitors and room occupancy figures is likewise
expected to continue, meaning an increase in room occupancy and revenue per available
room.
Logistics
The logistics sector was badly hit by the economic crisis. Nevertheless, the effects felt by this
segment of the property market were limited because of the, on the whole, low level of speculative
construction activity, as a result of which there were no significant surplus capacities.
Tailored projects for self users or property investors account for most of development activity.
Furthermore, the retail trade, which came through the crisis relatively unscathed, continued to
buoy up demand. As a result, the supply of available premises during the crisis was only moderate.
Also in times of crisis, rent levels have proven to be largely stable, particularly where
new, high-quality properties are concerned, as they take their bearings from the actual construction
costs as well as potential sales proceeds; for this reason, they are largely free from
speculative or strongly cyclical elements.
During the course of the unexpectedly strong economic recovery, user demand for logistics
properties rose discernibly and in 2010 even led to a new record turnover level. This more
than made up for the losses sustained in the years 2008 and 2009. As in the past, users’ interest
is focused on high-quality and efficient properties; however, as demand becomes more
broad-based, interest when selecting possible premises is also being shown in non-prime locations
and qualities. Any rent increase will probably be very moderate, however, all the more as
decreasing returns paired with largely unchanged production costs are again giving developers
more scope when negotiating rents.
Over the past decade, logistics properties have established themselves as an alternative
to investment in office or retail properties. Accompanied by receding returns, the price level
for logistics properties has seen a trend increase. During the financial crisis, too, returns no
longer reached the long-term level. The corresponding decline in market value was less than
10%. During the course of the recovery, returns were already falling again in 2010, and this
trend is likely to continue in 2011. The stimulus needed for this is provided by the high economic
growth expectations for Germany.