<strong>The</strong> <strong>Pfandbrief</strong> Market 2010/<strong>2011</strong> Financial Crisis Drives Development of Interest Rates and Spreads From the historic low for ten-year Bunds of 2.1 % in August 2010, the yield moved back up towards the 3% mark at the end of the year. During the first six months of <strong>2011</strong>, it then remained lodged at just over 3%. <strong>The</strong> debt crisis in Greece, which came to a head towards the end of the second quarter, triggered only a limited safe-haven reaction, however, pushing the yield on the 10-year Bund to just below 3%. <strong>The</strong> renewed flare-up of the sovereign debt crisis around mid-2010 prompted only a limited reaction from <strong>Pfandbrief</strong> spreads. However, they narrowed again at the beginning of <strong>2011</strong> and have since been largely stable vis-à-vis Bunds. <strong>Pfandbrief</strong> Yields in % 7 6 5 4 24 3 2 1 0 01. 1999 01. 2000 01. 2001 01. 2002 01. 2003 01. 2004 01. 2005 01. 2006 01. 2007 01. 2008 01. 2009 01. 2010 01. <strong>2011</strong> Maturity buckets: 1–3 y 3–5 y 5–7 y Sources: Commerzbank, iBoxx <strong>The</strong> widening of spreads in eurozone peripheral states was disproportionately greater. Investors’ focus on sovereign credit risks dominated also the movements on the covered bond markets Neuemission and contributed to paving the 1. way Halbjahr for the 2010 strong spread differentiation 1. Halbjahr on 2009 the covered Hypothekenpfandbrief* bond market. <strong>The</strong> rally by government bonds of individual peripheral states, which took hold in early <strong>2011</strong>, led to a certain recovery Namens- in the Inhaber- case of the respective Namens- covered bonds, Inhaber- too. As pfandbrief pfandbrief Gesamt pfandbrief pfandbrief gesamt concern grew about the extent of, and the lack of a prospect of stabilization of, the Greek sovereign < 1 Jahr debt and its impact on other 0,0% peripheral 6,6% states, spreads 6,6% widened 0,1% again in 1,7% these countries. 1 bis unter It may 3 J. be seen that, as the country 0,5% credit 12,4% rating falls, 12,9% so the spread 0,7% between 14,1% the respec- 14,8% 1,8% tive 3 bis government unter 5 J. paper and covered 1,3% bonds tightens. 40,6% In 41,9% isolated cases, 2,2% covered 20,7% bonds have 22,9% even 5 bis unter been 10 priced J. higher than corresponding 3,3% 22,7% maturities 26,0% of government 11,5% paper. 18,0% 29,5% 10 J. und darüber 7,8% 4,9% 12,6% 25,4% 5,6% 31,0% gesamt 12,8% 87,2% 100,0% 39,9% 60,1% 100,0% * inkl. Schiffspfandbriefe Quelle: vdp Erhebungen
<strong>Pfandbrief</strong>-Bund-Spreads in % 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 25 Swapspreads Jumbo <strong>Pfandbrief</strong>e and Jumbo Covered Bonds in bp 07.2007 01.2008 07.2008 01.2009 07.2009 01.2010 07.2010 01.<strong>2011</strong> 07.<strong>2011</strong> 01. 1999 01. 2000 01. 2001 01. 2002 01. 2003 01. 2004 01. 2005 01. 2006 01. 2007 01. 2008 01. 2009 01. 2010 01. <strong>2011</strong> Maturity buckets: 1–3 y 3–5 y 5–7 y 7–10 y Sources: Commerzbank, iBoxx 560 520 480 440 400 360 320 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 Total market France Covered Legal Mortgage <strong>Pfandbrief</strong>e Public <strong>Pfandbrief</strong>e Portugal Covered Spain Covered Single Sweden Covered Sources: LBBW, iBoxx