Australia's Gambling Industries - Productivity Commission

Figure U.1
Player returns from a gaming machine a
Black Rhino return distribution from one hour of play
7
6
A loss
Frequency (%)
5
4
3
A win
2
1
0
44 - 46%
52 - 54%
60 - 62%
68 - 70%
76 - 78%
84 - 86%
92 - 94%
100 - 102%
108 - 110%
116 - 118%
124 - 126%
Player return (%)
132 - 134%
140 - 142%
148 - 150%
156 - 158%
164 - 166%
172 - 174%
180 - 182%
188 - 190%
196 - 198%
a This is based on a particular poker machine game, Black Rhino, whose details were provided by Aristocrat.
The player price results are based on 100 000 simulations of a gambler making 720 button pushes (playing
nine lines). 720 button pushes amounts to around 1 hour of continuous play. The consumer return rate of the
version of Black Rhino simulated is 87.84 per cent (with the simulation average being 87.82 per cent, within
0.02 per cent of the actual price).
Data source: Commission estimates.
The rate of return is equal for each playing strategy, but the variance — the spread
of results — is much greater for the first strategy than the second. The person who
plays gaming machines the first way has a higher probability of a bigger win
(because payouts for a line win are a multiple of the credits bet on that line), but
also a higher probability of losing more. The distribution of returns from playing for
one hour for each playing style is illustrated in figure U.2, based on the results of
10 000 gaming machine simulations in each case. For example, for around 21
per cent of occasions the hourly returns are below 70 per cent using player style 1
compared to less than 10 per cent of occasions for player style 2. On the other hand,
for around 15 per cent of occasions the hourly returns are above 110 per cent using
player style 1 compared to 6 per cent of occasions for player style 2.
The example also illustrates the point that the likelihood of having a net win can
vary significantly over the shorter run, depending on play style, even though the
expected return is the same. However, as noted in chapter 16, the Commission still
HOW GAMING
MACHINES WORK
U.7