PBL rapport 550026002 Calibration and validation of the land use ...

Calibration and validation of the Land Use Scanner
allocation algorithms
The Land Use Scanner is a spatial model that simulates
future land use. Since its initial development in 1997, it has
been applied in a large number of policy-related research
projects. In 2005, a completely revised version became
available that allows land use to be modelled at a finer 100
metres resolution. This new version also offers the possibility
to model homogenous cells (containing only one type of land
use) in addition to the heterogeneous cells that were already
available in the previous, coarser version. Each approach
uses its own algorithm to allocate land-use types to individual
cells.
This report describes both algorithms and assesses their
spatial allocation performance. The two model algorithms are
calibrated using multinomial logistic regression and validated
by applying the calibrated suitability definition in a subsequent
time period. The validation indicates that both model
algorithms provide sensible spatial patterns. In fact, the two
different modelling approaches produce very comparable
results, given equal starting points. In general, we conclude
that the model is well-suited to simulate possible future
spatial patterns in the scenario or policy-optimisation studies
that are typically carried out by the Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency.
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, April 2009