PBL rapport 550026002 Calibration and validation of the land use ...
PBL rapport 550026002 Calibration and validation of the land use ...
PBL rapport 550026002 Calibration and validation of the land use ...
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<strong>Calibration</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>validation</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> L<strong>and</strong> Use Scanner<br />
allocation algorithms<br />
The L<strong>and</strong> Use Scanner is a spatial model that simulates<br />
future l<strong>and</strong> <strong>use</strong>. Since its initial development in 1997, it has<br />
been applied in a large number <strong>of</strong> policy-related research<br />
projects. In 2005, a completely revised version became<br />
available that allows l<strong>and</strong> <strong>use</strong> to be modelled at a finer 100<br />
metres resolution. This new version also <strong>of</strong>fers <strong>the</strong> possibility<br />
to model homogenous cells (containing only one type <strong>of</strong> l<strong>and</strong><br />
<strong>use</strong>) in addition to <strong>the</strong> heterogeneous cells that were already<br />
available in <strong>the</strong> previous, coarser version. Each approach<br />
<strong>use</strong>s its own algorithm to allocate l<strong>and</strong>-<strong>use</strong> types to individual<br />
cells.<br />
This report describes both algorithms <strong>and</strong> assesses <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
spatial allocation performance. The two model algorithms are<br />
calibrated using multinomial logistic regression <strong>and</strong> validated<br />
by applying <strong>the</strong> calibrated suitability definition in a subsequent<br />
time period. The <strong>validation</strong> indicates that both model<br />
algorithms provide sensible spatial patterns. In fact, <strong>the</strong> two<br />
different modelling approaches produce very comparable<br />
results, given equal starting points. In general, we conclude<br />
that <strong>the</strong> model is well-suited to simulate possible future<br />
spatial patterns in <strong>the</strong> scenario or policy-optimisation studies<br />
that are typically carried out by <strong>the</strong> Ne<strong>the</strong>rl<strong>and</strong>s Environmental<br />
Assessment Agency.<br />
Ne<strong>the</strong>rl<strong>and</strong>s Environmental Assessment Agency, April 2009