RIVM report xxxxxx xxx

page 80 of 142 RIVM report 773301 001 / NRP report 410200 051
Within the project, available information on time profiles of anthropogenic sources has been
collected and listed, focussing on their monthly variation. Within GEIA, however, a full study of time
profiles for all sources is in progress. The presented results of the NRP-MLK project feed into this
larger study. In this section the temporal variation of anthropogenic sources is illustrated by a
selection of graphs. In Appendix 2 you will find a more detailed summary of the available data.
As a first approximation seasonal variation of anthropogenic emissions may be considered as an
uniform distribution, as illustrated in Fig. 4.10 showing the limited monthly variation in global total
fossil fuel consumption.
1.60
Global total profile per fuel type
Difference w.r.t. uniform distribution
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
gas
liquids
solids
total
0.00
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
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An clear exception to this rule is biomass burning (see Appendix 2), which is limited to the dry
season (deforestation, savanna burning, field burning of agricultural waste). Other climatic, cultural
and economic influence contributing to non-uniformity of human activities is:
ú space heating, influencing the demand on fuels in the residential and commercial sectors
ú space cooling, affecting the demand for electricity in the residential and commercial sectors
ú availability of hydropower, influencing the use of fossil fuels or electricity production.
ú
ú
holiday periods, influencing both road traffic intensity and manufacturing activities
maintenance periods for large plants relating to favourable periods (e.g. due to holidays, demand
drops, weather conditions), influencing the demand for fossil fuels and the activity level of
industrial processes
ú seasonality of agricultural production, influencing the amount of national and international
transport (predominantly road and shipping, respectively)
ú car cooling, influencing emissions of CFCs and HFCs from mobile air conditioners.
However, regarding monthly indicator data for specific economic sectors at country level, data are
not so easily available, in particular with global coverage. In general one can say that for OECD
countries more statistics are available than for non-OECD countries.
In the LOTOS approach (Veldt, 1992) time profiles are based on reasonable, simplified assumptions
for key sources (Fig. 4.11).