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RIVM report 773301 001 / NRP report 410200 051 page 47 of 142
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International policy for the protection of the ozone layer was established through the 0RQWUHDO
3URWRFRO of 1987 and the subsequent $PHQGPHQWVRI/RQGRQ, 1990, and &RSHQKDJHQ, 1992. Sixtyfive
countries have now ratified the &RSHQKDJHQ$PHQGPHQW including the largest industrialised ones.
According to this &RSHQKDJHQ $PHQGPHQW countries have to phase out the production and
consumption of CFCs by 1996. Other countries, in particular developing countries with a relatively
small CFC use per capita, have to phase out production and use by 2005. International funds are
available for financing projects in developing countries for preventing further expansion of the use of
CFCs. In 1994 the countries of the European Union agreed to phase out the use of CFCs and carbon
tetrachloride by 1995 (EEA, 1999).
As a result of these measures world-wide production and consumption of ozone-depleting
substances have been reduced substantially during the last years. In 1995, consumption dropped to
almost zero in industrialised countries (including the former USSR), in compliance with the
agreements. From a policy point of view, the issue has been sufficiently dealt with. Several factors, as
outlined below, contributed to the success of the 0RQWUHDO3URWRFRO and $PHQGPHQWV:
ú technical alternatives are available for substituting CFCs at acceptable costs: HCFCs, HFCs, other
processes without halocarbons;
ú damage to the ozone layer has now become particularly evident, partly because of the relatively
direct relationship between cause and effect: i.e. one major group of harmful substances and one
major impact;
ú
the 0RQWUHDO 3URWRFRO contains well-defined flexible implementation schemes and evaluation
procedures.
The most important factors now determining the success of international policy are found in the
sustaining sphere, e.g. compliance with international agreements, resistance to smuggling and illegal
production of CFCs, and implementation of recycling or destruction of CFCs emitted from existing
applications. In 1995, the respective stocks of CFC-11 and 12 at global level contained in appliances
such as refrigerators was 8 and 3 times the amount actually emitted in 1995. This was 8 times the
amount actually emitted for halon-1211and 25 times for halon-1301. Thus, also after the phase-out of
production and consumption, emissions to the atmosphere of substances contained in existing
applications will continue for a number of years. The use of methyl bromide in developing countries
is also an important factor; in industrialised countries this has already been controlled. The EU has a
25% reduction target for methyl bromide in 1998 compared to the 1991 level (EEA, 1999).
HCFCs and HFCs are used as substitutes for CFCs. In the 0RQWUHDO3URWRFRO and $PHQGPHQWV the
consumption of HCFCs is still allowed for a number of years. As a result, the production of HCFCs
has recently substantially increased. Also the ODPs of HCFCs are only about 5% of that of CFCs.
Therefore the impact of HCFCs on the ozone layer is currently very small. However, since there are
now hardly any measures taken in developing countries to reduce the consumption of these
substances, in the future HCFCs could contribute to ozone depletion in non-negligible amounts in the
future. While HFCs do not deplete the ozone layer, they are potent greenhouse gases.
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Total global reported production of CFC-11 and CFC-12 has decreased in 1995 by 46% and 38%,
respectively, compared to 1994. In 1995, total reported production was 15% of the 1986 level.
However, the consumption of HCFCs increased in 1995 relative to 1994, in particular for HCFC-141b
at 39%. The consumption of CFC-22, currently the most widely used HCFC, increased by 2%. The
consumption of HFC-134a increased in 1995 by 46% (AFEAS, 1997). The estimated production of
so-called non-reporting countries has been relatively constant since 1986. As illustrated in Fig. 2.8,
the consumption of CFCs in industrialised countries dropped to almost zero in 1994. In most of the
developing countries, which will have no restrictions on their consumption for ten more years, the